Tour de France 2013 *spoilers*

[Noodley]

The invited teams for 2013 have been announced - Cofidis, Sojasun and Europcar - no surprises there in 3 French teams

 

[raindog]

And great news if you live in France - France Television have just signed a new TdeF contract which will take them up to 2020. When other sports are governed by greed/money we can still see the Greatest Sporting Spectacle for free.

 

[Herzog]

I was hoping for IAM rather than Sojasun...long shot given it's their 1st year, but they have been active in races to date.

 

[rich p]

Spoilers?
Who won the prologue?

 

[tigger]

Give it a month and I'll start a 2014 TDF thread. Blimey Noods, the only thing this is spoiling is the Giro thread surely?

 

[Noodley]

a slow burner

 

[montage]

No IAM for the Vuelta either. Disappointing for them

 

[Strathlubnaig]

Some early recce getting done here.... http://mobile.france24.com/en/20130524-prisoners-cycle-tour-de-france-stage-under-heavy-guard

 

[Crackle]

So what are people's thoughts on Evans being ready for this. He said he was using the Giro for training but a Grand Tour for training to go for a GC position in LeTour?

It seems unlikely to me, especially at 36. My thoughts are he won't be recovered enough. However I know @lukesdad thinks he'll be there fighting for a podium spot, whereas I think Van Garderen will ascend to the team leader at some point in the race.

 

[laurence]

is it just me or are others having trouble seeing any real contenders other than Contador, Purito and one of the Sky duo?

I'd love to see Cadel do something and reckon he will go for the Ryder approach at the Giro, shake up some early stages and see if anyone reacts and, if not, get some small advantages. if that fails, then TJ will take over.

Sky could get it on teamwork - hard to see beyond them for that approach, but in the mountains it may not go to plan.

anyway, it's le Tour, anything can happen

 

[smutchin]

is it just me or are others having trouble seeing any real contenders other than Contador, Purito and one of the Sky duo?

Wot no Quintana? He's the not-so-dark horse for me. Definitely a contender.

Though, tbh, I can't really see beyond Contador for the top spot - I just think he'll be too good for Froome, in much the same way as he was at the Vuelta last year. It's not that Contador is necessarily a stronger rider but he's a cannier rider.

Can't see Purito ever winning a Grand Tour. But I wouldn't object to being proved wrong on that.

 

[rich p]

Anyone who thinks Contador is nailed on had better grab the 5/2 Bwin is offering!
http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/winner
They have Froomedawg at evens! Crazy talk!
Quintana is singularly under-rated by the betting companies Smutch; even behind Andy Schleck!!!!!
He could be good for an each way punt IMO but I think Froome will really give Dirty Bertie a good run for his money with or without Wiggins' help.
Evans will struggle to repeat his podium I think.

 

[smutchin]

Quintana is singularly under-rated by the betting companies Smutch; even behind Andy Schleck!!!!!

I expect that's because they're getting their tips from Liggett & Sherwin.

The main factor against Quintana as far I can see is his lack of Grand Tour experience compared to the other big names. But 36th in the Vuelta last year, his first GT, isn't a bad showing. He lost six minutes in the time trial there but he's clearly improved in that department, as he showed at the Tour of the Basque Country...

We may well see his odds shorten after the Dauphiné.

I think Froome will really give Dirty Bertie a good run for his money with or without Wiggins' help.

Agreed, but I think Contador's racing brain will give him the edge.

 

[The Couch]

So what are people's thoughts on Evans being ready ...
It seems unlikely to me, especially at 36. My thoughts are he won't be recovered enough.

I have about the same feeling, this Giro was gruesome (considering the weather conditions), so I do believe that the effects will come into play at one point or another (even if Nibali - who still looked great after 3 weeks - would participate in the Tour, I would expect him to feel the effects of this cold and rainy Giro at one point or another).

is it just me or are others having trouble seeing any real contenders other than Contador, Purito and one of the Sky duo?

The only ones I see having something of a somewhat decent chance other than these 4 would be Quintana and Dan Martin.

FYI

• I see Valverde focussing - like last year - on the Vuelta
• JVDB hasn't had the best/ideal preparation due to falls/injuries (and he is a control-maniac, so that must play in his head)
• TJ hasn't exactly blown me away with his performances so far, which he hadn't done last year either, but that same form isn't good enough for the victory
• If Wiggo starts than Porte is option 3 and that's too far down the piramyd
• Rolland is actually looking marginally better than last year, so I would bump him up versus previous years but not fully to a contender (he is still French and French GT winners are still a big gamble to take )
• Pinot has had a wonderful Tour last year and although his year so far suggests he should be able to do minimum as good this year, I still want to see him confirm his result before he gets bumped up to (a close outside) favourite
• Moreno looks improved this year, but I don't think his improvement will be so drastic (and he is also second fiddle of course)

 

[raindog]

Official profiles now available.
http://www.velochrono.fr/actu/2013/parcours-tour-de-france-2013/
I'll have time to ride out quite a way and choose a nice spot to watch the peloton on our second local stage, and still have loads of time to get back and watch it on telly. They do the Col des 13 Vents and the Croix de Mounis near Bedarieux - ridden up 'em both. Can't bloody wait for this.