Tour de France 2026 ***Spoilers***

[No Ta Doctor]

It's interesting that people now consider a lead of less than 3 minutes at the end of week 1 to be unassailable. In 2022 Jonas turned a 39" deficit into a 2' 22" lead in a single stage before eventually extending that to 3' 34" at the end of stage 20 (he gave away over 50" on the final stage). I'm not saying it will happen again but there are plenty examples of collapses in GTs, it only takes bit of illness to knock someone off form and Pog has previous of going too deep in the early part of the race whilst looking unbeatable (less likely this year with him being fresher than post-Giro Jonas).

I think the problem is that Pog is a different rider today than he was then. Jonas pushed him really hard and he went away and worked on literally everything - longer climbs, fueling, heat, descending, TTs, altitude, recovery - all of it. The theoretical advantages that Jonas, where he'd shown he could better Pog, are all gone as far as I can see. There's the near mythical "third week Jonas" that might still be viable, but you need to get to the third week close enough to make it count.

Other than a couple of stages in last years Dauphiné that gave Vingegaard fans (me) false hope, the only times he's beaten Pog since winning the TdF in '23 were '24 stage 11 where he chased Pog back and pipped him on the line when Pog had bonked and '25 stage 19, where he came second to Arensman on the shortened stage to La Plagne and an obviously knackered Pogacar after Visma's Tour-long war of attrition came in behind him, but on the same time, race over.

Pogacar has pretty much given up making mistakes, can ride defensively, can conserve his energy through three weeks. Vingegaard was supposed to be in top form, having finally shaken off the crash of '24 and ready to go toe-to-toe, but.... nope 😢 He says he wasn't at his best yesterday and still hopes to gain legs in the third week, but it could still be over by then even if he improves a lot. Credit to him for giving it a go, but i'd be very surprised (and obviously delighted) if it came to anything for him.

Obviously Pog could still do something stupid (get bored and fall off a mountain/get bored and crash contesting a boulevard sprint alongside Philipsen et al ), get ill, forget to eat, suffer some absurd mechanical nightmare, but I don't see a Jonas win without a very large helping of good/bad luck (perspective dependent)

 

[Dogtrousers]

This is more like it.

Commentators must be frantically googling "interesting facts about Baptiste Veistroffer"

 

[Dorset Boy]

I think the problem is that Pog is a different rider today than he was then. Jonas pushed him really hard and he went away and worked on literally everything - longer climbs, fueling, heat, descending, TTs, altitude, recovery - all of it. The theoretical advantages that Jonas, where he'd shown he could better Pog, are all gone as far as I can see. There's the near mythical "third week Jonas" that might still be viable, but you need to get to the third week close enough to make it count.

Other than a couple of stages in last years Dauphiné that gave Vingegaard fans (me) false hope, the only times he's beaten Pog since winning the TdF in '23 were '24 stage 11 where he chased Pog back and pipped him on the line when Pog had bonked and '25 stage 19, where he came second to Arensman on the shortened stage to La Plagne and an obviously knackered Pogacar after Visma's Tour-long war of attrition came in behind him, but on the same time, race over.

Pogacar has pretty much given up making mistakes, can ride defensively, can conserve his energy through three weeks. Vingegaard was supposed to be in top form, having finally shaken off the crash of '24 and ready to go toe-to-toe, but.... nope 😢 He says he wasn't at his best yesterday and still hopes to gain legs in the third week, but it could still be over by then even if he improves a lot. Credit to him for giving it a go, but i'd be very surprised (and obviously delighted) if it came to anything for him.

Obviously Pog could still do something stupid (get bored and fall off a mountain/get bored and crash contesting a boulevard sprint alongside Philipsen et al ), get ill, forget to eat, suffer some absurd mechanical nightmare, but I don't see a Jonas win without a very large helping of good/bad luck (perspective dependent)

I think I saw yesterday was the 22nd time Pogi and Jonas have finished 1-2 on a stage.
However Pogi has won 17 of those stages!

 

[No Ta Doctor]

"Hey, Baptiste! Absolutely sterling work you did babysitting De Lie on stages two and three. Really really appreciate your work, if it wasn't for you he'd have abandoned far earlier. Yeah, I know, but you haven't caught anything, so it's all good. Anyway, stage five is going to be hot and flat, and it's almost certainly going to be a bunch sprint finish, buuuuuuut we don't have a sprinter anymore, someone didn't manage to get him through stage 3.... So, you know.... Could you just ride 150km solo in the baking sun for us to get on the TV? Thanks, you're a star, great work you do, really appreciate it, we really do."

"Hey, Baptiste! My Man! Really, really loving your work! No I mean it, you're an absolute star! Yeah, tough day in the mountains yesterday, I know, don't worry, we didn't expect you to do any more than you did, it's fine. Anyway, today's stage is flat as a pancake - just a single tiny Cat 4 at the end so that should be easier for you! Talking of pancakes it's going to be hot enough to fry one on the tarmac, some people forecasting 38C in Bordeaux today, which is where you're heading. Anyway, another guaranteed sprint - it's Bordeaux, it always is! - but people are getting a bit bored of all the Pogacar mountain business, so how about you tootle along and give them a bit of a show of those lovely Lotto Intermarché colours for a few hours before the proper riders come in for the stage win? Love it, yeah, honestly, you're a star! Yeah, of course we can try and find someone you can talk to, no worries, understand completely....

Hey, Baptise! Got some great news for you - had a chat with the other teams and found out that little Portuguese team that's almost as desperate for a couple of hours on TV as we are, Caja something, you know the one? Yeah, well they've agreed to send a guy, great guy, Jakob something. Check? I did already. Oh, yeah, I get you, yeah, he's Czech. Does he talk French? Man, I dunno, you'll have to ask him. Maybe you can teach him some on the way? Anyway, have a great day out, really appreciate everything you do yeah. Talk later, au revoir!"

 

[Pblakeney]

So you're saying they should swallow their pride etc?

Results would indicate that they have! 😉
They are now a stage hunting team.

 

[No Ta Doctor]

I think I saw yesterday was the 22nd time Pogi and Jonas have finished 1-2 on a stage.
However Pogi has won 17 of those stages!

They're pretty much glued together most Tours - whichever of them has had the upper hand.

 

[mididoctors]

They're off ..soft break

Max Kanter is verily a most excellent name for a sprinter.

Ben swift

 

[mididoctors]

It's interesting that people now consider a lead of less than 3 minutes at the end of week 1 to be unassailable. In 2022 Jonas turned a 39" deficit into a 2' 22" lead in a single stage before eventually extending that to 3' 34" at the end of stage 20 (he gave away over 50" on the final stage). I'm not saying it will happen again but there are plenty examples of collapses in GTs, it only takes bit of illness to knock someone off form and Pog has previous of going too deep in the early part of the race whilst looking unbeatable (less likely this year with him being fresher than post-Giro Jonas).

Yeah it's a bit early-ish to call but ,,

 

[Pross]

I think the problem is that Pog is a different rider today than he was then. Jonas pushed him really hard and he went away and worked on literally everything - longer climbs, fueling, heat, descending, TTs, altitude, recovery - all of it. The theoretical advantages that Jonas, where he'd shown he could better Pog, are all gone as far as I can see. There's the near mythical "third week Jonas" that might still be viable, but you need to get to the third week close enough to make it count.

Other than a couple of stages in last years Dauphiné that gave Vingegaard fans (me) false hope, the only times he's beaten Pog since winning the TdF in '23 were '24 stage 11 where he chased Pog back and pipped him on the line when Pog had bonked and '25 stage 19, where he came second to Arensman on the shortened stage to La Plagne and an obviously knackered Pogacar after Visma's Tour-long war of attrition came in behind him, but on the same time, race over.

Pogacar has pretty much given up making mistakes, can ride defensively, can conserve his energy through three weeks. Vingegaard was supposed to be in top form, having finally shaken off the crash of '24 and ready to go toe-to-toe, but.... nope 😢 He says he wasn't at his best yesterday and still hopes to gain legs in the third week, but it could still be over by then even if he improves a lot. Credit to him for giving it a go, but i'd be very surprised (and obviously delighted) if it came to anything for him.

Obviously Pog could still do something stupid (get bored and fall off a mountain/get bored and crash contesting a boulevard sprint alongside Philipsen et al ), get ill, forget to eat, suffer some absurd mechanical nightmare, but I don't see a Jonas win without a very large helping of good/bad luck (perspective dependent)

I can't decide if Jonas genuinely felt he could do the Giro and still win the Tour or if going there is an acknowledgement he doesn't think he can beat Pog at the Tour all other things being equal. Also not sure if he would have been closer yesterday without the Giro but I definitely don't see him being better in week 3. But then again he's not the only other contender in the race. However, that doesn't mean that Pog might not get over-confident and crack. If one favourite loses 2 minutes on a stage there's no reason why another couldn't, obviously if Pog destroys another stage or two there's no hope but at present it is a 'one bad day' / mishap gap.

 

[Dogtrousers]

Ben swift

Tony Gallopin

 

[mididoctors]

I think I saw yesterday was the 22nd time Pogi and Jonas have finished 1-2 on a stage.
However Pogi has won 17 of those stages!

But he didn't win them all

 

[Linuswordymann]

I can't decide if Jonas genuinely felt he could do the Giro and still win the Tour or if going there is an acknowledgement he doesn't think he can beat Pog at the Tour all other things being equal. Also not sure if he would have been closer yesterday without the Giro but I definitely don't see him being better in week 3. But then again he's not the only other contender in the race. However, that doesn't mean that Pog might not get over-confident and crack. If one favourite loses 2 minutes on a stage there's no reason why another couldn't, obviously if Pog destroys another stage or two there's no hope but at present it is a 'one bad day' / mishap gap.

It could be argued that Pog had the same attitude in '24 when he took on the Giro (that he might as well get something because Vingo has done me on the last two)

 

[Blazing Saddles]

This is ridiculous.
Alpecin not allowing 2 blokes to have more than a minute lead.
They should sit up.

 

[Pross]

Jens saying it's much cooler today, down by around 10 degrees which sounded odd so I just checked and that is true in the early stages with the southwest corner being significantly cooler than the rest of France ('only' 28 degrees) but Bordeaux is still up at 36 degrees.

 

[No Ta Doctor]

I can't decide if Jonas genuinely felt he could do the Giro and still win the Tour or if going there is an acknowledgement he doesn't think he can beat Pog at the Tour all other things being equal. Also not sure if he would have been closer yesterday without the Giro but I definitely don't see him being better in week 3. But then again he's not the only other contender in the race. However, that doesn't mean that Pog might not get over-confident and crack. If one favourite loses 2 minutes on a stage there's no reason why another couldn't, obviously if Pog destroys another stage or two there's no hope but at present it is a 'one bad day' / mishap gap.

I'm usually very much a "wait and see, the fat lady hasn't sung yet" type of person, but I'm honestly struggling with this one. I don't think Jonas consciously sacrificed the Tour for the Giro, and it didn't turn out to be stressful or difficult for him. But if he wasn't producing the Watts he thinks he should yesterday then he'll probably want to look at why not and the Giro is a candidate for an explanation.