Dorset Boy
Über Member
- Location
- North Dorset or a mountain
Isolation unit for Adam Yates tonight, separate transfers to hotel and start
Tour de France 2026 ***Spoilers***
- Thread starter wakemalcolm
- Start date
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Dogtrousers
Lefty tighty. Get it righty.
Intermediate is at 120k after a cat 1, cat2 and cat 3.
Edit. Beaten again. I feel like Jasper Stuyven
No Ta Doctor
Veteran
It's a bit lumpier than he might fancy though... kicks off with a Cat 1, then a Cat 2 then a Cat 3. I'm not sure what the race that gets him to the intermediate with actual points to gather, ahead of Philpsen, looks like. This is quite likely a grimpeur breakaway stage unless the podium chasing teams want to make something of it. Pogacar probably more interested in getting Alpe d'Huez two different ways on his palmares
Dogtrousers
Lefty tighty. Get it righty.
Down to 1:06 from 9:52
Dorset Boy
Über Member
- Location
- North Dorset or a mountain
Fred Wright sounding very chipper despit his crash
Pross
Guru
Tarling looked to be auditioning for a place in the Alpecin lead out train. He did sterling work after his late attack.
Dogtrousers
Lefty tighty. Get it righty.
Looking further ahead
The sprint on stage 19 is at 89km and comes after a cat 2 and cat 1 (Col du Noyer)
The sprint on stage 20 is at 66km but is at the bottom of the descent from the HC Col de la Croix de Fer which the riders start ascending almost from the start.
Dorset Boy
Über Member
- Location
- North Dorset or a mountain
Croix de Fer is a tough and long climb abnd has a pretty technical descent, particularly at the top. Unless the peloton soft pedal it, can't see any sprinter getting points on stage 20.
mididoctors
Veteran
Stage 18 Voiron>Orcières-Merlette.185.2 km
Quite long ...3900m.of climbing . Trek.tempted to go for the intermediate? Longshot . UAE super domestiques are falling apart I doubt they will control
Anything van happen. Decathlon have to make something happen . . EF ineos and movistar will have to try
Rollout 12:35 CEST
Sprint on a little twisty kicker
Not the hardest summit finish
Quite long ...3900m.of climbing . Trek.tempted to go for the intermediate? Longshot . UAE super domestiques are falling apart I doubt they will control
Anything van happen. Decathlon have to make something happen . . EF ineos and movistar will have to try
Rollout 12:35 CEST
Sprint on a little twisty kicker
Not the hardest summit finish
T4tomo
Legendary Member
I think today, 19 and 20 all depend on teh size of any break that gets away, as there may be inter points to be scooped up by the peloton. You would back Jasper to beat Mads, but probably only by a place (which will prob only be a point or two break size dependent) as I'm not sure who else is super motivated to go for the points. Obviously if one of them gets into a break.....but MVdP likely to bring back any break with Mads in it & Lidl vice versa.
The inter points on the final stage could be decisive and then it rather depends what happens on the Montmartre climbs, as to whether it breaks up there, but Mads has a better chance of points on the line if it does, but MvdP could well keep Jasper up there also?
who knows
No Ta Doctor
Veteran
Today is, by my reckoning, the most likely of the three mountain stages to go to the break - Pogacar doesn't have a win on Alpe d'Huez so I'm pretty sure he'd like to tick that one off. The day after - featuring Alpe d'Huez the other way - is the queen stage and I think he'd like that as well. Both are likely to be a bit more tightly controlled - as much as they can given Yates is sick at the mo.
But that means the break is likely to be fairly large and unruly today, and it's going to form on a Cat 1 climb that's probably too much for either Mads P or Philipsen to get over. If the break aren't going to swallow all the points then an attack on the Cat 3 or some other lump in front of it is the most sensible option for Mads.
I think the green jersey is coming down to the intermediate and finish points in Paris. So the big question is whether MvdP wants a classics type win in Paris for himself, or if he burns matches pulling Philipsen over the climbs. There may not be a lot of sprint train firepower with Merlier gone home, Wærenskjold looking ropey and Decathlon burning up riders for Seixas so I wouldn't put money on a bunch sprint, and there are still a few riders that could do some damage on the Mont Martre climbs if they get through the mountains OK (Valgren, Cort, Jorgenson, Hagenes, Godon, Pidcock and, for the sake of @Dogtrousers Fred Wright ...). There's even potential for e.g. Remco & Seixas to be fighting for their GC position there, or Pog thinking he really does want it after deciding it wasn't worth the risk last year.
Of course, the green jersey could also be decided by the slopes of the Col du Galibier or the Alpe and a ticking time limit, there are some very tough days ahead, starting today - or even yesterday given how hard that was ridden -
- Distance: 174.7 km
- Vertical meters: 2362
- Avg. speed winner: 47.383 km/h
Dogtrousers
Lefty tighty. Get it righty.
I don't know the mind of Pog but I'm guessing he'd love to be the first since Hinault to win in yellow on the Champs Élysées on the final day.
Last year there was rain and Wout. This year there may be rain (it's forecast) and Mathieu.
matticus
Guru
Both the Cat1 climbs seem a little soft to me* , but 3900m climbing total isn't to be sniffed at!
*(is there an official criteria these days? Whatever, 'snot important)
No Ta Doctor
Veteran
Fixed that for you.
One of the few things I like about Pog is that he does know the iconic value of e.g. winning in yellow on the Champs Élysées, or on the Alpe d'Huez. Asked about the Alpe he immediately mention Ventoux and the Tourmalet as comparable in iconic terms. He was first to the summit of the Tourmalet this year (it hasn't finished there since 2019, I thought it was a lot more recent!), and had to leave Ventoux to the break last year (Campenaerts pulled Vingegaard and Pogacar up it, there was a bit of headwind and Pogacar eventually mugged Jonas for two seconds, with the stage being decided about 45 seconds before)
mididoctors
Veteran
I think Issac on podium shenanigans is going to factor and remco may get a hill top sprint even if behind a break
