will ebikes drop in price and get better like a laptop or other electronics

[Blue Hills]

^^^ This. Look how many hundreds, or even a thousand or more, of pounds people are willing to drop on an iphone that cost $20 to manifacture. They could sell them for $100 dollar and still do very nicely, but they don't because people are daft enough willing to pay the exorbitant prices. So it probably is with ebikes.

not disputing yours and ridgeway's highlighting of marketing managing to boost pricing, but surely the smartphone analogy doesn't hold. Nor Ridgeway referring to ebike makers as "they" as if "they" are monolithic.
You don't have to buy an iphone, other smartphones are available.
Some ebike makers may try to maintain high margins but others might choose to undercut them as their own path to profit?

 

[Pale Rider]

I agree prices are set largely by what the market will stand, but I can't decide if ebike manufacturers are profiteering.

A premium £1,600 Bosch bike is effectively a £600 bike (at retail) with a battery and motor.

The Bosch system is their own, so had to be designed, developed, and manufactured.

No doubt the motor is relatively to cheap to make, but we are told batteries are expensive to make due in part to high raw material costs.

There will be profit in it, but I think it's by no means certain that profit is excessive.

 

[gzoom]

The Bosch system is their own, so had to be designed, developed, and manufactured.

No doubt the motor is relatively to cheap to make, but we are told batteries are expensive to make due in part to high raw material costs.

Battery costs are at most $200/kWh at present (for the complete battery), so a 500wh eBike battery will be $100 manufacturing costs.

https://about.bnef.com/blog/battery...in-2020-while-market-average-sits-at-137-kwh/

However companies do need to get their money back for R&D, along with profits

 

[Deleted member 26715]

I bought my Cube towards end of 2019, paid £1600 getting a £200 discount for not doing it on the cycle to work scheme, same bike (if you can find one) £2200 no discount. But to me all new bikes are overpriced, although I indulge I don't see the cost in them

 

[bruce1530]

The comparison with laptops is an interesting one. I suspect the answer is going to be the same - the prices will drop when the market says they must.

For years, laptop prices were static, at around £1000 per unit for the type I buy (I typically order several hundred a year at work). Technology moved on, laptops got lighter and more powerful, but the prices stayed relatively constant at roughly twice the price of a desktop PC. You got more "bang for buck", but the cost didnt really change.

Then the "netbook" came along - small laptops, very portable, limited functionality, keyboard and screen too small for many purposes, but relatively cheap. Popular at the time, but the main impact they had on the market was to bring down the average price of the "mainstream" laptops by about 50% over 3 years or so.

Maybe we'll see the same with ebikes - the price is dictated by demand as well as raw material costs, and until something shakes up the market, there's little incentive for the manufacturers to reduce costs.

 

[Deleted member 26715]

@bruce1530 Although I take your point on the laptops, I'm not sure that it is quite valid, with laptop there was development available, faster processes, more memory, moving from traditional hard drives to SSD, but a bike is a bike is a bike, you can't really have a smaller version like you can have with a notebook. other than the battery lasting longer what gains can there be?

 

[byegad]

Graphene batteries are potentially a get out of jail free card for the technology. High energy density and quite fast recharge times, not too much longer than filling a large petrol tank.
IFF they come on line the limiting factor will be availability of power to charge the cars using them.

 

[gzoom]

Graphene batteries are potentially a get out of jail free card for the technology. High energy density and quite fast recharge times, not too much longer than filling a large petrol tank.

Graphene is still lab tech, Lithium ion has only now got to the point of been cheap enough to be viable in EVs - and only just.

Sony introduced the first Lithium ion battery in 1991, battery prices didn't start to fall until about 2010 onwards.

Similar OLED display tech was first demoed in 1987, it took another 3 decades before you could buy OLED TVs at a sensible price.

It will be another few decades before Graphene can be commercialised for consumer usage in batteries.

 

[byegad]

Graphene is still lab tech, Lithium ion has only now got to the point of been cheap enough to be viable in EVs - and only just.

Sony introduced the first Lithium ion battery in 1991, battery prices didn't start to fall untill about 2010 onwards.

Similar OLED display tech was first demoed in 1987, it took anther 3 decades before you could buy OLED TVs at a sensible price.

It will be another few decades before Graphene can be commercialised for consumer usage

When push comes to shove things may well move faster. See Covid vaccines.

 

[Deleted member 26715]

before you could buy OLED TVs at a sensible price.

That depends on your definition of sensible, I've just replaced my TV, £1300 & still didn't get into OLED territory

 

[Ridgeway]

I think one limiting factor here is product positioning on ebikes, you can position them according to range and NM of torque but not too much more unlike a tablet, phone, laptop etc. Of course you can also then drill down to gears, brakes etc but that's the same with any bike.

If range and torque increase then it will create a gap in the market for lower priced/specified units, as Bruce says above the higher specs will likely be used to maintain the current pricing level.

Branded 25kmh bikes here are about £2k where as branded 45kmh bikes are about double that and i'd guess that the on cost of manufacturing is perhaps 25% vs the standard 25kmh bikes.

 

[gzoom]

When push comes to shove things may well move faster. See Covid vaccines.

COVID vaccines had the backing of virtually unlimited resources with resources actually already in place due to Ebola/Bird flu - the industruy was actually prepared for vaccine production as a case of when not if even though no one saw COVID coming and its impact.

I own an EV and even I admit the environmental 'benefits' are marginal at best, governments see the 'green' push for EVs been related to jobs/taxes as much as anything else. The numbers have to balance, and mass producing something like a Graphene cell is going to cost a whole shed load of £££££ with no guarantee of success. Especially when Lithium ion is already good enough.

 

[byegad]

COVID vaccines had the backing of virtually unlimited resources with resources actually already in place due to Ebola/Bird flu - the industruy was actually prepared for vaccine production as a case of when not if even though no one saw COVID coming and its impact.

I own an EV and even I admit the environmental 'benefits' are marginal at best, governments see the 'green' push for EVs been related to jobs/taxes as much as anything else. The numbers have to balance, and mass producing something like a Graphene cell is going to cost a whole shed load of £££££ with no guarantee of success. Especially when Lithium ion is already good enough.

It is going to depend on the urgency governments see the climate emergency. Enough money and it'll be quicker than you think.

 

[Deleted member 26715]

It is going to depend on the urgency governments see the climate emergency.

Is it even on most radars? Realistically, unless their masters can make money out of it they are not interested

 

[Pale Rider]

Branded 25kmh bikes here are about £2k where as branded 45kmh bikes are about double that and i'd guess that the on cost of manufacturing is perhaps 25% vs the standard 25kmh bikes.

With the Bosch system the only difference is the speed cut off, so I can't see any extra manufacturing costs.

Speed pedelec rated tyres might be a few pounds more, but many 25kmh bikes already have 45kmh tyres.

Brakes might be a bit beefier, but I suspect in most cases they are not.

Gearing is usually slightly higher, but of course there's no cost penalty in that.