Dogtrousers
Kilometre nibbler
Here's a rather pointless graph. Mean and standard deviation distance by day.
235 miles a day for a year (Amanda Coker Challenge)
- Thread starter Mugshot
- Start date
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srw
It's a bit more complicated than that...
Skewness and kurtosis?
Dogtrousers
Kilometre nibbler
srw
It's a bit more complicated than that...
I have never yet found a use for skewness as a figure, rather than just a concept. I couldn't even define kurtosis.
Dogtrousers
Kilometre nibbler
Dogtrousers
Kilometre nibbler
Another week ... and the Coker line is confirmed at 86,573 or 237.18 miles per day ... or is it? As she's putting in super-big miles at the moment and is also continuing her biggest rolling year will be greater than that, but her declared year was the one that just finished, which will provide grist for a few angels-dancing-on-the-head-of-a-pin discussions.
Steve has been starting a bit later and doing some riding after midnight. Ive ignored this morning's short (9k) post-midnight ride for the time being. This is just up as far as Sunday midnight.
Steve's stats as at 14 May 17
Days: 72 (19.7% of year)
Dist: 25,767 km / 16,011 mi
Avg daily dist: 357.9 km / 222.4 mi
Avg daily elevation (Strava): 1,597 m / 5,239 ft
Moving speed (Strava): 25.8 km/h / 16.0 mi/h
Hours per day riding: 15.1
Projected total at current daily rate: 130,625 km / 81,166 mi
Steve has been starting a bit later and doing some riding after midnight. Ive ignored this morning's short (9k) post-midnight ride for the time being. This is just up as far as Sunday midnight.
Steve's stats as at 14 May 17
Days: 72 (19.7% of year)
Dist: 25,767 km / 16,011 mi
Avg daily dist: 357.9 km / 222.4 mi
Avg daily elevation (Strava): 1,597 m / 5,239 ft
Moving speed (Strava): 25.8 km/h / 16.0 mi/h
Hours per day riding: 15.1
Projected total at current daily rate: 130,625 km / 81,166 mi
mattobrien
Guru
- Location
- Sunny Suffolk
With Amanda finishing and setting a very high target to beat, I fear that Steve hasn't now got a hope of reaching it. With 293 days to go, he needs 70,562 miles, or 241 miles / day. From the above chart I can see that he has exceeded 240 miles on 9 occasions this year, so on 13% of his rides. He now needs to average this figure for every single day moving forwards, which I sadly think is beyond what we have been shown is capable.
An amazing achievement, but one that now looks destined to fall short of the new, higher total. It will be a lot of effort to have cycled the second furthest distance in a year, as opposed to getting the record.
I very much hope I am proven wrong and Steve does do it, but I won't be placing a bet on that now.
An amazing achievement, but one that now looks destined to fall short of the new, higher total. It will be a lot of effort to have cycled the second furthest distance in a year, as opposed to getting the record.
I very much hope I am proven wrong and Steve does do it, but I won't be placing a bet on that now.
OP
OP
Mugshot
Cracking a solo.
Well, considering in each of your 7 posts in this thread you've basically said that Steve is not going to suceed in his record attempt, I would have been more than a little surprised if you had.
Beebo
Firm and Fruity
- Location
- Hexleybeef
I also fall into the "I don't think he can do it" camp. I would love to be proved wrong.
At current speeds he needs to find another hour of riding per day, every day, which will reduce his recovery times. He will need to ride 16 hours per day. Amanda "only" rides 13 hours per day as she is considerably quicker.
So he needs to either speed up or ride for longer and he is already riding beyond midnight.
And he still has to ride through our winter, with all the additional difficulty that that brings, so i agree that the challenge ahead seems even tougher than ever.
At current speeds he needs to find another hour of riding per day, every day, which will reduce his recovery times. He will need to ride 16 hours per day. Amanda "only" rides 13 hours per day as she is considerably quicker.
So he needs to either speed up or ride for longer and he is already riding beyond midnight.
And he still has to ride through our winter, with all the additional difficulty that that brings, so i agree that the challenge ahead seems even tougher than ever.
srw
It's a bit more complicated than that...
Have a look, if you can find it, at Steve's progress in his AUK points record setting. He rode further and further as the year went on, ending up with something like a 400, two 300s and two 200s each week. All while working full-time in a manual job.
Or look at his plans for attempt 1, which foresaw large increases in mileage just as he got knocked off.
It'll be tough, but I wouldn't write him off just yet.
Or look at his plans for attempt 1, which foresaw large increases in mileage just as he got knocked off.
It'll be tough, but I wouldn't write him off just yet.
He's got a chance but to my mind, he needs to rid himself of the shorter rides. I keep seeing the odd 200 mile day which will undo a lot!
I wonder whether the distribution of distance is normal to date? I fear that whilst the average is 220odd, he will struggle to push the longer distances.
I wonder whether the distribution of distance is normal to date? I fear that whilst the average is 220odd, he will struggle to push the longer distances.
Dogtrousers
Kilometre nibbler
If only someone would post a frequency distribution of his daily mileages
I didn't see the probability check for a normal distribution......
Dogtrousers
Kilometre nibbler
A slightly below average week in the rain with an average of 215 mpd, and some night riding which plays havoc with the daily totals, giving some very big and some small days.
Steve's stats as at 21 May 17
Days: 79 (21.6% of year)
Dist: 28,196 km / 17,520 mi
Avg daily dist: 356.9 km / 221.8 mi
Avg daily elevation (Strava): 1,553 m / 5,094 ft
Moving speed (Strava): 25.8 km/h / 16.0 mi/h
Hours per day riding: 15.1
Projected total at current daily rate: 130,272 km / 80,947 mi
Steve's stats as at 21 May 17
Days: 79 (21.6% of year)
Dist: 28,196 km / 17,520 mi
Avg daily dist: 356.9 km / 221.8 mi
Avg daily elevation (Strava): 1,553 m / 5,094 ft
Moving speed (Strava): 25.8 km/h / 16.0 mi/h
Hours per day riding: 15.1
Projected total at current daily rate: 130,272 km / 80,947 mi
