Big Shops re-opening today. Anyone going?

Page may contain affiliate links. Please see terms for details.
According to a scienceman on the R4 news the other day, the chances of catching the virus from someone at 2m is 1.6%, and I presume that someone has to be infected, otherwise the chance would be zero. By your 10x chance at 1m, that's a 16% chance of contracting the virus, but that person at 1m proximity still has to be infected, otherwise it's still zero. What are they saying at moment?... 1 in 1000 people carry the virus. So that's what, a 0.1% chance of coming near someone with the virus and an 84% chance that you won't get anything
I'm not saying I think any number is correct, but if I may, here are 3 rebuttals to your point:
- Those figures are for 1 encounter. If you go to the shops, or to a commuter station, or a big workplace, it doesn't take long to meet 1000 people. The pandemic is taking place over months, not 1 day.
- If you let people stand a metre closer you'll get more than twice as many in the same space. So again, more encounters, more transmission.
- We're pretty "flexible" with these rules. Currently, lots of people let the spacing slip to around 1m, either for convenience, or accidentally, wotever; at least with the "TWO METRES!" message, these encounters are minimised; if we go to a "ONE METRE" rule that will become the average, with lots of people standing closer when it suits them.

Obviously I have an opinion here, or I wouldn't bother posting! My current gut feel is that 2m should stay as the default, apart from VERY limited scenarios.
 

Sharky

Guru
Location
Kent
Probably later this week. My OH has already been to the local garden centre and we are keen to get back to some kind of normality for our autistic daughter. Her only outings was a drive to local towns (eg Bromley) and then a walk through the shopping centre to WH Smiths to buy a Bounty, then home again. All of that has been destroyed by the lockdown and we have been house prisoners since it started and now normality for our daughter is to stay at home. It's going to take months to get her back to where she was.
 

deptfordmarmoset

Full time tea drinker
Location
Armonmy Way
I went up and down Oxford Street yesterday. Last time to enjoy it in peace and quiet for a while or till the 2nd wave comes.
 

wafter

I like steel bikes and I cannot lie..
Location
Oxford
Since last week was fairly heavy (cycling-wise) I decided today's escapade would simply be a mosey into town to see how much contempt the consumptive masses of Oxford warranted.

It pleases me to report that town was relatively quiet; probably less foot traffic than you'd exepect on a normal Monday late-morning; however it pays to remember that a lot of uni staff and students will still be absent.

The main entrance to the Westgate was relatively busy; the lower end not so much with the John Lewis still closed and the only queue visible being for Primark, although that was only maybe 20yd long. To be fair to our Bristolian counterparts I assume the lines there were at opening time, while the branch in Oxford had been open for a few hours by the time I got there.

Primark queue just visible on 2nd level:

IMG_0391.JPG



Outside Queens St. was undoutedly busier than it has been in recent weeks, but thankfully not the consumptive frenzy I was expecting:

IMG_0394.JPG



Finally, Cornmarket was similar:

IMG_0395.JPG



Perhaps there's hope for humanity yet (but I doubt it :tongue:)
 

wafter

I like steel bikes and I cannot lie..
Location
Oxford
What's with the "ONE WAY - Keep Moving" sign? This is a new thing to me :huh:
The plan is to keep people apart and on separate sides of the street depending on which direction they're travelling.

While in practice I can fully appreciate the concept, in my mind it conjurs images of some Orwellian, state-controlled process of "citizens exercising their sanctioned right to consume" :tongue:

 

MontyVeda

a short-tempered ill-controlled small-minded troll
I'm not saying I think any number is correct, but if I may, here are 3 rebuttals to your point:
- Those figures are for 1 encounter. If you go to the shops, or to a commuter station, or a big workplace, it doesn't take long to meet 1000 people. The pandemic is taking place over months, not 1 day.
- If you let people stand a metre closer you'll get more than twice as many in the same space. So again, more encounters, more transmission.
- We're pretty "flexible" with these rules. Currently, lots of people let the spacing slip to around 1m, either for convenience, or accidentally, wotever; at least with the "TWO METRES!" message, these encounters are minimised; if we go to a "ONE METRE" rule that will become the average, with lots of people standing closer when it suits them.

Obviously I have an opinion here, or I wouldn't bother posting! My current gut feel is that 2m should stay as the default, apart from VERY limited scenarios.
All good points. I'm no statistician, but are the countries with a 1m or 1.5m rule being called out as reckless? Are they experiencing a significantly higher transmission rate than the UK, Sweden and Canada (I think they're the only three saying 2m)

My own experience as a shop floor retail worker in a place where social distancing even at 1m is impossible, working as normal through March's packed panic buying and all through lock down... I haven't seen my colleagues coming down with the virus despite us all putting ourselves in 'the danger zone' for some three months now. I have, however, seen us go through hundreds of litres of hand sanitiser.
 
Top Bottom