I've just skimmed over this...you say your have a pronation in the left foot and that is the same leg that you have the shin splints?
Considering that foot-pronation is one of the major causes of shin splints, I'm surprised if it hasn't been mentioned already.
If the shins start to hurt again, check out an orthopedic and mention the pronation. Stretching and icing is good for mild cases of shin splints, but if you have it bad, then chances are it is a biomechanical problem and stretching and icing will only cure the symptoms.
My sources include a very long struggle and a lot of money spent on a lot of various experts
Hi Montage, the pronation found on those gait analysis machine at local sweatshop, was about 5%, Im no expert but it sounds relatively slight to me. Maybe what is more concern is that I suffered a slipped disk about 4 years ago, and every now and then I get niggly pain on the same side of my lower back. I have not been in such discomfort as to persuade me to get seen by a specialist again but if I reoccur any further injury then I will undoubtedly follow that route again.
IMO, I think that it would be advisable not to do the race. Having had 6 weeks off, your time will be slower that it would otherwise. Psychologically, I see little point in going to do a race where you know that you will achieve a 'slow' time.
The only reason for doing the race imo, would be to do it as a training run - and even then, it is possibly a little ambitious at this stage of the year. If you have a 'borderine' injury, it is more likely to re-occur in a race situation.
If you do the race, there is an element of risk - you don't want to make the shin spints re-occur; if an injury comes on halfway around the race, what then ? A painful walk to the finish ? Imagine how that might make you feel.
To be honest this would be my first race so have nothing to 'beat' just achieve completing it, to set a mark for my next race of the same distance.
Since my return I have run 3 times without issues, and by race day I could potentially have run another 6 times, and upped my mileage to 7 miles. So only have to find 3 miles. If I want to be 'positive' I can safely assume that if I run 7 miles twice on the week of the 23rd, without any pain or discomfort, then a shin splint in not as likely, half way through.
I have not made my mind up yet, just playing devils advocate. Like I said I would not like to cut off my nose to spite my face as I have many event planned 2+ a month from March, but just keeping my options open and being positive.