Corona Virus: How Are We Doing?

[lane]

What does long way off mean?

Also is there any research regarding which settings people are catching the virus?

 

[fossyant]

Potentially a fair few years.

 

[Rusty Nails]

Potentially a fair few years.

What does potentially mean?

How much is a fair few?

How long is a piece of string?

Too many complications for anyone other than those directly involved in the development of a vaccine to hazard anything other than a guess.

 

[fossyant]

What does potentially mean?

How much is a fair few?

How long is a piece of string?

Too many complications for anyone other than those directly involved in the development of a vaccine to hazard anything other than a guess.

OK, not this year or next, no-one knows, but don't expect 'normality' for many years. It's means lots longer than Boris is saying.

 

[lane]

OK, not this year or next, no-one knows, but don't expect 'normality' for many years. It's means lots longer than Boris is saying.

What do you base that on?

 

[Julia9054]

They instill reassurance and and confidence in the public

Since we don't yet know the true significance of having antibodies then we risk that confidence being misplaced

 

[lane]

I am virtually certain I have never had Covid, so certain I wouldn't even bother with a test. However if I found I have had it, I might conclude that as it was so mild I never even noticed, I probably don't need to overly worry in future, even if I was unsure that having it previously provided me with some immunity.

 

[fossyant]

What do you base that on?

My opinion that's all. We don't know.

 

[classic33]

Would having your details incorrectly recorded affect the outcome of test results.

 

[All uphill]

I'm very lucky to be free of any work commitments, and feel the best way I can contribute to society, my family and myself is to continue to stay healthy (lots of cycling and good diet) and avoid as many of the known risks as possible, so no visits to shops, friends and minimal contact with friends.

I'm enjoying the extra time in the garden, reading more good books and listening to more music.

As an quiet person these changes feel comfortable, and are likely to be permanent.

 

[classic33]

What does potentially mean?

How much is a fair few?

How long is a piece of string?

Too many complications for anyone other than those directly involved in the development of a vaccine to hazard anything other than a guess.

25% of its original length

25% of its origional length

From further down the thread.
"There is even a formula for the length of a piece of string:

• 2(0.5l) [or 2l/2] - where 'l' is length (doh!).

In other words, that can be written as "Twice as long as half it's length." "

Edited to correct formatting

 

[marinyork]

What does long way off mean?

Also is there any research regarding which settings people are catching the virus?

A long way off I meant add six months for the manufacture, fighting, piracy, seizing, transportation and administration. For different tranches. Add in a long queue and even longer.

This is not guessing when a vaccine will exist, this is a completely different thing to what another poster is saying. It is saying there could be months and months of waiting for people to have it even after it exists and is proven to be safe.

There are about 170 vaccines and the representative of the UK government has gone into this in more detail this week. The UK's trying to buy options on about 12 vaccines, from four different methods. Very sensible.

The oxford and other vaccines are manufacturing before phase 3 trials are complete. The estimates of how many can be produced per month for each vaccine vary, some are in the hundreds of thousands per month (a massive problem), some are in the millions or tens of millions. In the Western world there are a billion + of us. Some manufacturing will take time to scale up. Those vaccines need transporting. They need storing in fridges. They need people to administer them, which even with Matt Hancock saying he'll change the law still has problems. It needs adrenaline on hand? It needs people to hang around afterwards and be monitored and throw salt over their shoulder and jump on one leg three times. It needs a system to give them to patients e.g. in nursing homes where some patients cannot travel. Vaccines don't work as terribly well in elderly populations as anyone who has experience of flu vaccine systems knows. It's quite feasible vaccine choice will be very complicated by one vaccine for one age group and a different one for other groups. This will get complicated further by vaccines coming on stream at different times and what's available. It gets complicated further by a lot of people think a booster may be needed.

Another thread said make predictions by 1st January 2022. I think it more likely than not that Kingrollo and I won't have had our coronavirus vaccine by then even if it passes it's phase 3 trials by the end of this year. There's been a lot of talk about antivaxxers on here, I think there's the opposite problem that in 2021 that unless the three main vaccines the UK has bought large options on are the ones that work, the UK will only have access to hundreds of thousands to a few million in 2021. The idea that the UK's going to have 66 million vaccines any time soon going into each of those people's arms and a huge problem of antivaxxers saying no I think is utter fantasy and is infact very damaging and may cause us enormous societal issues down the line. I foresee enormous arguments about vaccines akin to issues I saw every year with flu vaccines but magnified.

I'm also incredibly relaxed about if there's only a few million vaccines. As long as you don't have some bat shoot crazy system of giving it to michael gove's daughter, prince andrew and the dominic cummings of the world, this is still an amazing achievement and helps protect the rest of us to a very considerable extent compared to now.

 

[fossyant]

I've moved 'office' to the conservatory this week - change of scene and as MrsF is at the caravan, I'm not in the way of her sewing. I am hugely grateful, despite having a small house, that my wife made 'spaces' so we all have some break out space. My office office is currently the shed/summer house. I have lots of colleagues who are stuck on a settee/bed/tiny kitchen.

Only disadvantage is some spreadsheet errors as 3 of the five cats like walking over my laptop keyboard - one was on a Skype this morning - fortunately with a fellow cat owner.

The other two other WFH's in my house no longer have jobs, so just me working. Son doing Dominoes delivery in the evenings, after losing his apprenticeship.

I am missing the interaction with colleagues - as someone who has always worked in an office this is odd - that said, we are all hopeful of flexible working going forward.

I do like the flexibilty of being able to have a longer lunch to get a ride in - this weill be great in winter (yup I'll still be in the shed then).

 

[fossyant]

A long way off I meant add six months for the manufacture, fighting, piracy, seizing, transportation and administration. For different tranches. Add in a long queue and even longer.

This is not guessing when a vaccine will exist, this is a completely different thing to what another poster is saying. It is saying there could be months and months of waiting for people to have it even after it exists and is proven to be safe.

There are about 170 vaccines and the representative of the UK government has gone into this in more detail this week. The UK's trying to buy options on about 12 vaccines, from four different methods. Very sensible.

The oxford and other vaccines are manufacturing before phase 3 trials are complete. The estimates of how many can be produced per month for each vaccine vary, some are in the hundreds of thousands per month (a massive problem), some are in the millions or tens of millions. In the Western world there are a billion + of us. Some manufacturing will take time to scale up. Those vaccines need transporting. They need storing in fridges. They need people to administer them, which even with Matt Hancock saying he'll change the law still has problems. It needs adrenaline on hand? It needs people to hang around afterwards and be monitored and throw salt over their shoulder and jump on one leg three times. It needs a system to give them to patients e.g. in nursing homes where some patients cannot travel. Vaccines don't work as terribly well in elderly populations as anyone who has experience of flu vaccine systems knows. It's quite feasible vaccine choice will be very complicated by one vaccine for one age group and a different one for other groups. This will get complicated further by vaccines coming on stream at different times and what's available. It gets complicated further by a lot of people think a booster may be needed.

Another thread said make predictions by 1st January 2022. I think it more likely than not that Kingrollo and I won't have had our coronavirus vaccine by then even if it passes it's phase 3 trials by the end of this year. There's been a lot of talk about antivaxxers on here, I think there's the opposite problem that in 2021 that unless the three main vaccines the UK has bought large options on are the ones that work, the UK will only have access to hundreds of thousands to a few million in 2021. The idea that the UK's going to have 66 million vaccines any time soon going into each of those people's arms and a huge problem of antivaxxers saying no I think is utter fantasy and is infact very damaging and may cause us enormous societal issues down the line. I foresee enormous arguments about vaccines akin to issues I saw every year with flu vaccines but magnified.

I'm also incredibly relaxed about if there's only a few million vaccines. As long as you don't have some bat shoot crazy system of giving it to michael gove's daughter, prince andrew and the dominic cummings of the world, this is still an amazing achievement and helps protect the rest of us to a very considerable extent compared to now.

Excellent response as usual. There have been massive gains, but the vaccine needs to go to those at risk first.

 

[Rusty Nails]

OK, not this year or next, no-one knows, but don't expect 'normality' for many years. It's means lots longer than Boris is saying.

I don't know enough to agree or disagree with your guesstimates of the vaccine timetable, but I agree with you about normality. Many people will find it difficult not being ultra cautious around crowds, shops, cinemas, foreign holidays etc for a very long time. Many companies are going to go to the wall and unemployment levels will be very high. The backlog of treatments lost during this year will affect illness levels and waiting lists for a long time. I believe universities will suffer financially by not getting the income from foreign students that they rely on.

Boris's bluster will change nothing.