Coronavirus outbreak

mjr

Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
To me that's one thing - I know they get split into two but really; it's young people going back to school.
It seems different, plus it was just one example. Outdoor non exercise recreation in pairs and care home visits are expected to resume along with schools. Mon 29 March is expected to see outdoor sixes, outdoor sports and hierarchical sports. Hospitality, other retail and HE is expected to be grouped in step 3. Pubs, grooming and UK holidays in step 4. This grouping of changes seems deeply farking stupid and will yet again mean we cannot tell as easily what measure changes the R by how much.
 

Ajax Bay

Guru
Location
East Devon
Data not dates, one step at a time and not too fast.
So according to https://metro.co.uk/2021/02/22/the-...-pass-for-the-covid-lockdown-to-end-14122240/ Johnson is about to fail on two of these, yet again giving out firm dates and derestricting multiple things simultaneously, such as sending primary and secondary schools back together. :sad:
Will vaccination be enough to save us from being led by donkeys that just don't learn from past mistakes?
From the Zahawi link - 4 tests:
1. Vaccine programme continuing at pace. We will offer the vaccine to the over-50s by the middle of April, and all of the adult population by the end of July.
2. Evidence that the vaccines are working and that we are seeing a reduction in infection, hospitalisation and of course, death.
3. Infection rates are not rising .
4. Variants, i.e. that we are managing to keep variants under control.

1. Vaccine. By 8 Mar all the JCVI Groups 5 and 6 will have received a jab (been offered), and a proportion of under 65s.
2. Effectiveness. We can expect more data on single dose effectiveness (see the vaccine thread for the promising PH Scotland report)
3. Infections. Infection rates are not rising. They are on track to be below 8000 reported per day by 8 Mar. The number of cases drives demand on NHS hospitals. Vaccinations of the 88% most vulnerable will, if effective after 21 days (8 Mar), mean drastically reduced hospitalisations. As @marinyork has suggested, the case/hospitalisation rate will have a long tail.
4. Variants. I understand that the number of the B.1.351 variant cases seems to have been contained. So it's reasonable to say that the UK is managing to keep variants under control.
Seems to me there are data. Seems to me that 'one step at a time' is roughly what's proposed and also that it's not too fast.
Would you care to list the separate 'things' (steps) that you suggest be relaxed 'one at a time'? How many are there? Do you think we could relax these, one at a time, on successive days? To set each step 21 days apart would see us into the autumn. Do you think that would be good for the country?

Were I involved in the management of a school, I would appreciate a "firm date (sic)" to work towards, with a couple of weeks notice. Which is exactly what I expect will be given this pm. 8 Mar has been noted for a month as the most likely date for schools resuming so 'they' will have had ample time to prepare (though probably with less than excellent direction on the detail). There have been plenty of papers showing that community transmission is far more of a driver than children in school.
So saying 'data not dates' doesn't really help real people planning vital education. Are your children (or of acquaintances/neighbours) not desperate to get back to school? For their future well-being?
My children's headmaster said (12 Feb):
"We will move to the next half-term, and the arrival of Spring, with a strong sense of optimism and confidence. Our students are in a strong position academically and we very much hope that we can begin to welcome them back to the school from 8th March. As soon as we are made aware of the Government plans for the wider opening of schools and details of the summer examinations, we will alert you to the next steps of our school recovery plan. As I am writing this letter the news that the ‘R’ Rate is falling has been announced which is wonderful."
 
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marinyork

Resting in suspended Animation
Location
Logopolis
It seems different, plus it was just one example. Outdoor non exercise recreation in pairs and care home visits are expected to resume along with schools. Mon 29 March is expected to see outdoor sixes, outdoor sports and hierarchical sports. Hospitality, other retail and HE is expected to be grouped in step 3. Pubs, grooming and UK holidays in step 4. This grouping of changes seems deeply farking stupid and will yet again mean we cannot tell as easily what measure changes the R by how much.
Colleges and unis (sort of) are back on 8th March.

That's kind of scary. It may explain why they've staggered some of the other quite mild outdoor things well into the future.
 

mjr

Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
Seems to me there are data.
There's data for now. There is no data yet for 29 March, 12 April, 17 May and all the other dates announced so far.

Seems to me that 'one step at a time' is roughly what's proposed and also that it's not too fast.
Are you reading different news to everyone else? Every report I've seen or heard says each date will see several changes happen together. This is yet another big gamble, and so far only one has worked, as against all the others which failed.

I don't think we can tell yet if it's too fast or not.

Would you care to list the separate 'things' (steps) that you suggest be relaxed 'one at a time'? How many are there? Do you think we could relax these, one at a time, on successive days? To set each step 21 days apart would see us into the autumn. Do you think that would be good for the country?
There are loads of lists of the changes. I don't see a need to repost them all here. There are more than a dozen.

I think the changes would need to be set at least 7 days apart, probably 10, but the expert modellers would know better. Probably changes affecting groups that have almost nothing to do with each other could be relaxed simultaneously, but that would not mean unlocking primary and secondary schools together.

If it takes until the autumn, then it takes until the autumn. It won't be good for the country but this whole crisis isn't good for the country and it will be a damned sight better than if the government gambles and loses yet again.

So saying 'data not dates' doesn't really help real people planning vital education. Are your children (or of acquaintances/neighbours) not desperate to get back to school? For their future well-being?
Dates can be announced once decided, of course. If school reopenings are confirmed today, then it's not huge notice, is it? What they should not do is announce a three month timetable of reopenings. We could be in the midst of a fourth wave by then (but I hope we are not).

Some children I know are keen to get back to school, but some won't even be going back when schools first reopen anyway, as their parents plan to continue to home-school them. I think it is unhelpful to pretend that all children need the same thing. It borders on ageist.
 

Ajax Bay

Guru
Location
East Devon
some won't even be going back when schools first reopen anyway, as their parents plan to continue to home-school them. I think it is unhelpful to pretend that all children need the same thing. It borders on ageist.
:rolleyes: And those whose parents have decided to continue home-schooling: I wonder whether the children are as "keen"?
There's data for now. There is no data yet for 29 March . . .
[OT] Come on 'maths chap': singulars and plurals.
 
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matticus

Über Member
There are dates, and there is data.

Can we move on to dessert now please?? IS there dessert :-/ ?
 
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Ajax Bay

Guru
Location
East Devon
Data is a mass noun now.
Very noticeable that Professor Chris Whitty was very plural at the 7 o'clock briefing. Maintained his credibility, not least among his fellow epidemiologists/scientists. Just imagine the ribbing he'd get in the common room if he used a singular conjugated for 'data'!
 

mjr

Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
Very noticeable that Professor Chris Whitty was very plural at the 7 o'clock briefing.
I wasn't going to mention it, but it was noticeable Prof Whitty used both singular and plural for it during the show. I hope he doesn't suffer ribbing for it, but such unfamiliarity with modern English should probably be expected of fossils who lurk in common rooms!
 

Unkraut

Master of the Inane Comment
Location
Germany
Data is a mass noun now.
I used to have to translate the ambiguous German Daten as either dates, or data with a singular verb if the context was computers (very much American usage) or plural verb if used in the older scientific sense, as strictly it is plural. Inconsistency is hardly surprising!
 
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