Coronavirus outbreak

marinyork

Resting in suspended Animation
Location
Logopolis
How are people catching it amazes me, aren't we all meant to be in the house?
I'm still working but apart from the same 4 blokes haven't really seen anyone else apart from family I live with for months!
Yesterday I was coding in the morning and popped out to a park later. Half term plus sunshine plus 12 Celcius temperature rise from the previous week and people fed up of the continuous toll of being indoors with children.

The playgrounds had 150 to 200 children and adults reasonably closely packed. As opposed to the usual ten or so. In some of these age groups transmission is quite a lot lower but present even with it being 19x lower outdoors. There are all sorts of transmission including parties and so on. Traffic has noticeably picked up the last two weeks.

It looks like the old neighbours are having people indoors again in numbers far larger than a support bubble or childcare bubble.
 

shep

Über Member
Location
Wolverhampton
I've seen you use this term on here many times and I've got to ask, what does it mean, I presume it's a derogatory term for a certain type of person, but what type? Many thanks.👍
I wondered this so Googled it, the explanation I found was ' a nice Girl, a sort of goody Two shoes' so the context it's used on here makes no sense to me but there you go.

I had to ask about all manor of phrases.
 

Ajax Bay

Guru
Location
East Devon
Prof Mark Woolhouse, of the University of Edinburgh, epidemiologist on the SPI-M giving evidence to the HoC Science and Technology select committee,
* no evidence of virus outbreaks ever happening outside (eg summer Dorset beaches)
* clear that most Covid transmission was happening indoors.
* Government had been too slow in the past to reopen schools and allow outdoor activities as
* clear that neither was responsible for significantly raising the 'R' number.
* evidence going back to spring that the virus is not transmitted well outdoors
* "There's never been a Covid-19 outbreak linked to a beach ever, anywhere in the world, to the best of my knowledge. We do have to understand where the risks are and aren't so that we can do as much as possible safely without overcompensating."
* mass gatherings such as concerts and football matches were still a danger because they caused "pinch points" when people travelled and queued for refreshments: being indoors was by far the biggest risk.
* "We do now have a very good understanding backed up by a lot of science on when and where this virus transmits," he added. "It transmits best when adults are gathered in a confined space, unventilated in close proximity and particularly when there is talking or vocalisations.
"So from that very clear menu of risk you can identify all sorts of activities that might tick one of those boxes, and they will have risks. So outdoor activities, there is very little evidence of outdoor transmissions. With children, not at all.
"You can provide a safer environment by meeting or carrying out activities outdoors, no question."
"So from that very clear menu of risk you can identify all sorts of activities that might tick one of those boxes, and they will have risks. So outdoor activities, there is very little evidence of outdoor transmissions. With children, not at all.
"You can provide a safer environment by meeting or carrying out activities outdoors, no question."

Cycling = tick [Edit for the avoidance of misinterpretation: 'Tick' means: an encouraged and excellent exercise/activity (for all ages) minimising transmission: not a confined space, not unventilated, not in close proximity and not much talking.]
 
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Ajax Bay

Guru
Location
East Devon
Schools reopening next month (assumed). Here's a new paper from Warwick University offering insights:
'An analysis of school absences in England during the Covid-19 pandemic'
Clip from final discussion:
"We observe that cases in schools increased throughout September and October 2020, mirroring the increases reported in the local community. The percentage of secondary school students with confirmed infections was found to be higher than in primary school students throughout this period. Notably, this was not the case with teachers - the percentage of teachers reporting infection appeared to be of a similar magnitude in both primary and secondary schools. This suggests that teachers are not exposed to increased risk in school environments where more children are infected, perhaps suggesting that the background incidence in the community plays a greater role in determining the risk to teachers. We can also infer that teachers are not at greater risk in primary schools than in secondary schools."
Final part of abstract:
"Finally, we observe a positive correlation between cases in the community and cases in schools in most regions, with weak evidence suggesting that cases in schools lag behind cases in the surrounding community. We conclude that there is not significant evidence to suggest that schools are playing a significant role in driving spread in the community and that careful monitoring may be required as schools re-open to determine the effect associated with open schools upon community incidence."
 

mjr

Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
* "We do now have a very good understanding backed up by a lot of science on when and where this virus transmits," he added. "It transmits best when adults are gathered in a confined space, unventilated in close proximity and particularly when there is talking or vocalisations.
"So from that very clear menu of risk you can identify all sorts of activities that might tick one of those boxes, and they will have risks. So outdoor activities, there is very little evidence of outdoor transmissions. With children, not at all.
Cycling = tick.
Only the "adults" box is ticked, surely?
 

Ajax Bay

Guru
Location
East Devon
No cycling involved but surely if Charles HRH can drive to London to see his father in Hospital so can others visit there parents and grand parents, just like Cummings and Boris's trip to Scotland recently rules do not apply
@vickster has shared the travel exemption link: for anyone whose elderly (or other) relatives are seriously ill.

I applaud the Prime Minister getting out and visiting all parts of the United Kingdom (and of course the rulz apply). It would be an abrogation of leadership to hole up in Westminster with only the odd cycle ride to keep sane.

I think the inability of people to visit and 'be present with' their declining close relatives who have C19 or who are in a care home 'lock-in' is a catastrophe for both the ailing suffering individual and their wife/husband/sons/daughters (say). I applaud HRH for visiting (it would be an epic failure not to, imo) and just hope that DoE gets well enough to return 'home' (Windsor at the moment).

I similarly hope every person who for myriad reasons needs to be treated in hospital (inpatient) gets visitors if allowed and subsequently makes it home. Remember there are over 18k (@ 18 Feb) in there just for C19. And there are (roughly) 100 thousand patients in hospital (beds) for other things.
 

marinyork

Resting in suspended Animation
Location
Logopolis
I similarly hope every person who for myriad reasons needs to be treated in hospital (inpatient) gets visitors if allowed and subsequently makes it home. Remember there are over 18k (@ 18 Feb) in there just for C19. And there are (roughly) 100 thousand patients in hospital (beds) for other things.
It's a bit theoretical. One of my parents was in hospital three times this year as an inpatient. Theoretically you're allowed to visit if you go on the vague blurb with restrictions, two of the times there were no visitors allowed in that area. The third time visitors were allowed but the hospital was trying to get her out as quickly as possible, a bit chaotic and it was heavily discouraged with communication she was leaving - which is what everyone wanted.

And when one of my parents was in hospital last year at the height of peak 1 with what turned out to not be covid there were no visitors, no comms and scary. You wonder whether you'll ever speak to them again or see them again.

Fortunately in late Feb 2021 the situation is improving as so many have been vaccinated. The covid hospital cases are still very high, but it's a slightly less mad world going forward in time. When the hospital numbers go down to a few thousand with covid inside and case rates locally go down to maybe 30 or 40 per 100,000 it's going to be easier.
 

Ajax Bay

Guru
Location
East Devon
You wonder whether you'll ever speak to them again or see them again.
This will scar many of those experiencing 'not being able to say "goodbye"' for a long time. No doubt it could have been handled better, but the risk/reward was, and maybe still is, very difficult to nail down. The number in hospital has gone down ~5k in the last reported week (to >18k on 18 Feb. Three weeks to a month to get down to 'a few thousand' perhaps?
 

marinyork

Resting in suspended Animation
Location
Logopolis
This will scar many of those experiencing 'not being able to say "goodbye"' for a long time. No doubt it could have been handled better, but the risk/reward was, and maybe still is, very difficult to nail down. The number in hospital has gone down ~5k in the last reported week (to >18k on 18 Feb. Three weeks to a month to get down to 'a few thousand' perhaps?
The hospital figures, as may be commented on next time Vallance, Stevens or Witty turn up to a press conference are very healthy trends but a lot of variation from region to region and trust to trust. The profiles of infection rates in those areas are also very different. The first wave had a very long tail on hospitalisations but more recent data suggests it's plunging down faster and will level off much slower than the first wave and there might be an opinion on vaccines tomorrow. Where Israel is at the next 3-4 weeks is approaching and interesting place. We might get a bit more of an idea of what's ahead, specifically.

A lot of things were got wrong in the first wave, characterised as no to everything by some, some have been rectified.

Slower process of goodbyes but when the care homes reopen I think people will notice decline in many and wonder. There'll be a lot of people on this board and I note that quite a few families appear to have had the higher and some of the lower generations vaccinated already to be able to make visits less worrisome.

Pale rider has commented on the trips before, often there are employment or other factors preventing visits for the commoner. Covid has made some of the visits that do go on far, far more visible as in they stand out and the discussions about rule breaking and exemptions. They always went on before. The vaccines, shielding and other things have shone a rare light on the world of carers to and how fragile the whole thing is.
 

mjr

Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
This time, many of the journalists asking about schools reopening have suggested giving criteria instead of a date, but Team Boris appears to have utterly failed to taken that opportunity! :sad:

"Government to set out lockdown easing plan in the week of 22 February" says the flipper below the news conference. Hopefully they will do better than the last two unlockings and not derestrict multiple things simultaneously (making it very difficult to estimate what had what effect), or even just too fast to reverse a relaxation that sets cases soaring again.
Data not dates, one step at a time and not too fast.

So according to https://metro.co.uk/2021/02/22/the-...-pass-for-the-covid-lockdown-to-end-14122240/ Johnson is about to fail on two of these, yet again giving out firm dates and derestricting multiple things simultaneously, such as sending primary and secondary schools back together. :sad:

Will vaccination be enough to save us from being led by donkeys that just don't learn from past mistakes?
 

SpokeyDokey

64 and a little bit.
Moderator
Data not dates, one step at a time and not too fast.

So according to https://metro.co.uk/2021/02/22/the-...-pass-for-the-covid-lockdown-to-end-14122240/ Johnson is about to fail on two of these, yet again giving out firm dates and derestricting multiple things simultaneously, such as sending primary and secondary schools back together. :sad:

Will vaccination be enough to save us from being led by donkeys that just don't learn from past mistakes?
To me that's one thing - I know they get split into two but really; it's young people going back to school.
 

marinyork

Resting in suspended Animation
Location
Logopolis
To me that's one thing - I know they get split into two but really; it's young people going back to school.
I'm fed up of politicians lumping them in together, 14, 15, 16 and 17 year olds are somewhat different when it comes to transmission for a 5 year old.

A poster on here keeps on going on about adults but the vaccination prog is not 'over' until it gets down to 14 or even younger. The virus could belt around the 14-49 year old population and then make it's way back to more vulnerable groups.
 
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