Coronavirus outbreak

Bazzer

Setting the controls for the heart of the sun.
How are people catching it amazes me, aren't we all meant to be in the house?
I'm still working but apart from the same 4 blokes haven't really seen anyone else apart from family I live with for months!
The news is littered with people not following the rules and they are the ones who are caught. Look at the just giving thread for the Patterdale Mountain Rescue team member as an example. Also comments made by one or two on CC suggest there are some here whose regard for others is lacking.
 

Julia9054

Guru
Location
Knaresborough
I understand that but no-one from Work has had it or their friends from what I can gather, It's a necessary risk unfortunately for my Family, Son's a Prison Officer and Daughter's a TA in nursery.
Wasn't meant to be a dig at you personally. You asked how are people catching it - by mixing for work in small groups who are also mixing in families/support bubbles.
 

Unkraut

Master of the Inane Comment
Location
Germany
22% of new infections here are the British variant. Doubling roughly every week.

On a bit of a knife-edge as to whether the current lockdown will still be able to keep the reduction in the infection rate going down. It's nearly got to 50 per 100 000 but the new target before relaxing restrictions is now 35.

Bureaucracy is the same the world over - how do you get it to get a shift on?! The tracing and testing provision is still not fully up to speed, though improved, and they have had a year to work on it.
 

mjr

Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
When there have been fewer than 7000 cases in the previous week (the numbers quoted are a 7-day moving average).
The headline 7 day moving average figure of 12,400ish is per day, though.

I reckon reaching 1000 per day will take almost 4 weeks on current trend but it has just wobbled shallower so it could take longer if that is due to nobbers reacting to the reduced R number by slackening. Hopefully it is just random variation and not a change in trend.

Actually, schools reopening will shallow the descent anyway, so it will probably be longer. Can Johnson hold on that long?
 

Ajax Bay

Guru
Location
East Devon
Can somebody help me with maths, at the current rate of decrease of cases when will it dip below 1000 a day on average, tia
Edit to add: Currently at circa 89,000 total last 7 days so might take a while to get below 7,000 a week. Just curious as it has been suggested that less than 1000 a day would be when lockdown could be relaxed (apart from schools).
[/QUOTE]
#All figures are 7-day averages (as opposed to a particular day eg Thursday) Edit: 14 Feb = 12,289pd (x 7 is 86,023pw)
I plotted the UK reported case numbers out assuming that the rate falls 25% each week: this is an average of what it's been doing the last three weeks (+ or - 2). Answer: Case rate will drop below 1000 a day on 17 Apr (chart shows 945 on 18 Apr). From 29,900 on 24 Jan, 12,289 on 14 Feb (both data); estimate: 9328 on 21 Feb, 7080 on 28 Feb, 5310 on 7 Mar).
Note this is not what you asked but is likely more representative (see alternative answer below the graph) and is the type of decay seen in epidemics (see second clip below).
I observe that the daily case rate (much less testing mind*) was below 1000pd from 24 Jun - 18 Aug.
*Testing rates were 86kpd on 24 Jun and 615kpd on 10 Feb.
1613606520191.png

[If we keep the current numerical rate of decrease it'll dip below 1000 per day on about 7 Mar (beware the Nones of March!).
(reducing by 550 a day for 21 days from 14 Feb). Just in time for getting our children back to education proper.]
Here is the daily reported death graph (1 Mar - 1 Aug) from https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths to show the more likely decay curve.
1613608024504.png
 
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PaulSB

Legendary Member
How are people catching it amazes me, aren't we all meant to be in the house?
I'm still working but apart from the same 4 blokes haven't really seen anyone else apart from family I live with for months!
It can only be the level of contact one either has to have, going to work etc, or is prepared to risk.

My household severely limits contacts. Supermarket once a week. My wife occasionally meets a friend to go walking. I only cycle with the same four people and we agreed a year ago we would not socialise with others. Our sons have been in the house three times since this began.

We are retired so this is easy to achieve. I would say all our friends, bar one who we now completely avoid, have taken this stance.

The only variation to this, locked down or not, has been if we can meet in groups of six or not. If six is allowed my wife has played outdoor tennis and I have ridden with 3-4 others.

When I'm out I gain the impression this is not possible for or ignored by many. I'm very glad not to work.
 

johnblack

Über Member
It doesn't prove it, but it does show it. And not "wholly" but I think that's a new demand.

Now that there is more data, it does also pretty strongly suggest that the usual suspects who came out with over-egged anti-lockdown papers are shoot-shovelling daffodils. It may be that lockdowns aren't completely necessary, but they do seem to reduce R.
I've seen you use this term on here many times and I've got to ask, what does it mean, I presume it's a derogatory term for a certain type of person, but what type? Many thanks.👍
 

mjr

Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
IIRC it's a certain highly offensive word beginning with c that is changed by the forum swear filter
No, it's an unthinking but pretty flower with zero IQ score, much like the "lockdown kills" advocates when publishing on lockdown topics. Best thing is to hope they die back to hidden bulbs when no longer nice to see, and keep them starved of nourishment so they don't multiply under the surface.
 
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