Coronavirus outbreak

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classic33

Leg End Member
Thank you @AuroraSaab , but I'm after " showing the direct effect of lock down on the number of cases reported daily".
I am familiar (over-familiar?) with the day-to-day figures but looking for something I can use to demonstrate a causative relationship rather than a correlation. Maybe I'll have to go the other way and show how failure to lock down meant the cases numbers were greater than they would have been if the country (Sweden? or state in US, say) had locked down.
Thank you @classic33
Ireland has a larger limit, 5km, on travel* this time as opposed to 2km the first time last year.

*From your home.

A breakdown at County level
http://www.clare.fm/news/15-new-covid-19-cases-confirmed-clare-744-new-cases-nationally/
 

AuroraSaab

Veteran
Thank you @AuroraSaab , but I'm after " showing the direct effect of lock down on the number of cases reported daily".
I am familiar (over-familiar?) with the day-to-day figures but looking for something I can use to demonstrate a causative relationship rather than a correlation. Maybe I'll have to go the other way and show how failure to lock down meant the cases numbers were greater than they would have been if the country (Sweden? or state in US, say) had locked down.
Thank you @classic33

There's the government site that gives daily cases going back to Jan 2020, plus other data.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases

But I don't know what this would give you that the graphs showing the gradual decline of cases under lockdown wouldn't, as they will be based on the daily data anyway.
 

mjr

Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
Here is the FT lockdown strictness tracker stretched to the same scale as the FT covid case chart, plotted for the maximum six countries that the FT chart allows, using Europe's "big five" plus Belgium because it's nearby and tracked (unlike Ireland which does not appear on the FT lockdown tracker).

Remember that comparisons between countries, or even between Spring 2020 and later, are fraught with difficulties because of different reporting standards, testing capacities and strategies, and so on. All we are interested in for now is whether the lockdown tracker bar darkening is followed by the case curve for that country turning more towards downhill — and I think it usually is.

Of course, the most interesting ones are where cases started to slow or fall without lockdown tightening, such as Spain in early November. That may be because there was some tightening not captured by the FT tracker, because some ineffective measures were replaced with more effective ones which resulted in no change in the FT's lockdown rating, because there was some non-law-based attitude change in the country's population (due to a high profile covid death or illness, perhaps?), because lockdowns in France and the UK had an effect in Spain, or for some other reason.
 

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PK99

Legendary Member
Location
SW19
Here is the FT lockdown strictness tracker stretched to the same scale as the FT covid case chart, plotted for the maximum six countries that the FT chart allows, using Europe's "big five" plus Belgium because it's nearby and tracked (unlike Ireland which does not appear on the FT lockdown tracker).

Remember that comparisons between countries, or even between Spring 2020 and later, are fraught with difficulties because of different reporting standards, testing capacities and strategies, and so on. All we are interested in for now is whether the lockdown tracker bar darkening is followed by the case curve for that country turning more towards downhill — and I think it usually is.

Of course, the most interesting ones are where cases started to slow or fall without lockdown tightening, such as Spain in early November. That may be because there was some tightening not captured by the FT tracker, because some ineffective measures were replaced with more effective ones which resulted in no change in the FT's lockdown rating, because there was some non-law-based attitude change in the country's population (due to a high profile covid death or illness, perhaps?), because lockdowns in France and the UK had an effect in Spain, or for some other reason.

Interesting plot.

I must be being dumb as I cant work out how to find/create that plot on the FT tracker page. Can you help?
 

mjr

Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
Interesting plot.

I must be being dumb as I cant work out how to find/create that plot on the FT tracker page. Can you help?
Cases: https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart...1&per100K=1&startDate=2020-01-23&values=cases

Lockdowns: https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-lockdowns/

The graph images were downloaded using a screenshot tool. The overlaying and scaling was by eye in the GNU Image Manipulation Program and I've already spotted two small ways that it is a bit off, but I feel it's near enough that the impression is still valid.
 

midlife

Guru
Can somebody help me with maths, at the current rate of decrease of cases when will it dip below 1000 a day on average, tia
 

mjr

Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
You can plot daily cases against the changes in the lockdown regime, but that's not the same as demonstrating that the former is wholly a direct effect of the latter.
It doesn't prove it, but it does show it. And not "wholly" but I think that's a new demand.

Now that there is more data, it does also pretty strongly suggest that the usual suspects who came out with over-egged anti-lockdown papers are shoot-shovelling daffodils. It may be that lockdowns aren't completely necessary, but they do seem to reduce R.
 

midlife

Guru
When there have been fewer than 7000 cases in the previous week (the numbers quoted are a 7-day moving average).

Currently at circa 89,000 total last 7 days so might take a while to get below 7,000 a week. Just curious as it has been suggested that less than 1000 a day would be when lockdown could be relaxed (apart from schools). Mind you I'm not sure what Boris is thinking!
 
How are people catching it amazes me, aren't we all meant to be in the house?
I'm still working but apart from the same 4 blokes haven't really seen anyone else apart from family I live with for months!
 
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