Coronavirus outbreak

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Location
Hampshire
My daughter's brother in law works for a large aerospace company, they were all told to take the last week as holiday but have now been told to come back to work this coming Monday as the company make ventilators. He said out of the 300 workforce, three people are engaged in producing one small ventilator component.
 

marinyork

Resting in suspended Animation
Location
Logopolis
From the Guardian.

Good morning. I’m Lucy Campbell and I’ll be bringing you all the latest UK coronavirus news throughout the day.

This morning, Prof Neil Ferguson, from Imperial College London and author of a report which warned of mass deaths if the UK did not introduce strict controls, said the lockdown could be relaxed in weeks – but only if Britons abide by physical distancing restrictions in the meantime.

He said a high level of coronavirus infections could last for “weeks” if people broke physical distancing rules this weekend.

He told BBC Radio 4 that the epidemic was expected to plateau in the next week to 10 days, but said people’s behaviour was critical to determining what happens next. Asked what would happen if people flouted physical distancing rules this weekend, he said:

That moves us to a slightly more pessimistic scenario.
We still think things will plateau but we’ll be at quite high levels of infection for weeks and weeks rather than seeing quite a rapid decline as the type seen in China.
We want to move to a situation where at least by the end of May that we’re able to substitute some less intensive measures, more based on technology and testing, for the complete lockdown we have now.
His warning echoes the heartfelt plea issued yesterday by the chief nurse Ruth May that anyone thinking of gathering outdoors when the weather is sunny this weekend should remember the two nurses, Areema Nasreen and Aimee O’Rourke, who died after contracting Covid-19. She said:
 

tom73

Guru
Location
Yorkshire
Same name as London one? Would have thought it’d have a different name to avoid confusion.

Be nice if a true pioneer of nursing got a look in one Mary Seacole. But sadly old Florence soon made sure she was airbrushed from history.
Edith Cavell would be a nice for one too she also showed true humanity.
 

winjim

Smash the cistern
Be nice if a true pioneer of nursing got a look in one Mary Seacole. But sadly old Florence soon made sure she was airbrushed from history.
Edith Cavell would be a nice for one too she also showed true humanity.
I'm intrigued to hear more about the dark side of Florence Nightingale. I've only ever really thought about her for her work in data visualisation.
 

marinyork

Resting in suspended Animation
Location
Logopolis
Guardian article on death reports (fairly trivial points) but better analysis than I've seen elsewhere about the lag and what truer numbers are. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...about-the-uks-coronavirus-death-toll-is-wrong

Written by three journalists, mostly relying on comments by Sheila Bird.

For those not wanting to read (figures from the Guardian):-

1586000442146.png
 

SpokeyDokey

67, & my GP says I will officially be old at 70!
Moderator
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RecordAceFromNew

Swinging Member
Location
West London
On what the strategy should be beyond lockdown.

Firstly, we should have one. I've seen zero evidence of this from government yet, once again they are rapidly finding themselves following events rather than leading.

Secondly, what should it be?
...

Haven't got the faintest idea what our so called government is thinking, but I believe the obvious vision is to tread water, until a vaccine that is commonly available is found.

As to what treading water means, Singapore's strategy is a good demonstration.Visually, it is this:

Singapore.jpg


It is not rocket science, essentially it is for the government to open and close levers of restrictions, to ensure the number of active cases (in orange) requiring medical attention is a manageable figure and not overwhelming, which can be achieved if those who have recovered (blue) and those who can be discharged for isolation (yellow) are no less than the newly infected on a daily basis.

Right now our active cases have obviously gone through the roof due to the Government and their chosen scientists asleep at the helm. If and when active cases get down to a manageable level after XX,XXX have perished, the above strategy will be available.
 
My daughter's brother in law works for a large aerospace company, they were all told to take the last week as holiday but have now been told to come back to work this coming Monday as the company make ventilators. He said out of the 300 workforce, three people are engaged in producing one small ventilator component.
Yes I've been posting all week that all and sundry are pulling workers into work to "work on the ventilator s"

I have no proof they aren't genuine - but personally I have my doubts .....
 

RecordAceFromNew

Swinging Member
Location
West London
On a more positive note, and that there is indeed more than a glimmer of hope at the end of this tunnel, Johnson and Johnson, the world's largest pharmaceutical company, has decided to deliver COVID-19 vaccines worldwide on a non-profit basis when it is ready. They believe they have highly promising candidates in the pipeline, and they have committed half a billion US$ on the development, with another half a billion matched by the US government.

What is important, is that the decision will put tremendous moral pressure on any other significant competing provider to provide vaccines on the same basis, if not already.

Sources: here and here.
 

marinyork

Resting in suspended Animation
Location
Logopolis
Haven't got the faintest idea what our so called government is thinking, but I believe the obvious vision is to tread water, until a vaccine that is commonly available is found.

As to what treading water means, Singapore's strategy is a good demonstration.Visually, it is this:

As said previously and I agree with Costello's point and other ones said similarly elsewhere, all people broadly agree on the same strategy even though a lot of people are shouting and pointing fingers and in some cases loudly proclaiming that they don't agree.

The only exceptions to this are people that think that a vaccine will disappear by some deus ex machina - the 1-peakers, the ones that think it'll go in summer, the ones who think a vaccine will be here in a couple of months, the ones that think that hydroxychloroquine can be taken by a vast number of people (sadly, somewhat unlikely) let alone work and have time to show it'll work. Let's all hope they are right.

It's not clear to me that singapore doesn't have a mild lockdown with more stringent social distancing. I know they don't want to call it that, but an authoritarian government probably wouldn't like to call it that would they.
 

marinyork

Resting in suspended Animation
Location
Logopolis
On a more positive note, and that there is indeed more than a glimmer of hope at the end of this tunnel, Johnson and Johnson, the world's largest pharmaceutical company, has decided to deliver COVID-19 vaccines worldwide on a non-profit basis when it is ready. They believe they have highly promising candidates in the pipeline, and they have committed half a billion US$ on the development, with another half a billion matched by the US government.

What is important, is that the decision will put tremendous moral pressure on any other significant competing provider to provide vaccines on the same basis, if not already.

Sources: here and here.

Is this a real world consideration in the western world? They'll still be the most almighty jostling, queue jumping, export bans, nastiness, hard choices and all that whatever price the vaccine is. To western countries the price of the flu vaccine I would be amazed if the flu vaccine is prohibitively expensive. It'll be pay at any price (likely to be a reasonable one) and that you won't be able to get enough in.

In a year or so it may matter a great deal in the developing world of which I am glad, although there's very very little talk of the millions that could die in the third world on this thread.
 

marinyork

Resting in suspended Animation
Location
Logopolis
Be nice if a true pioneer of nursing got a look in one Mary Seacole. But sadly old Florence soon made sure she was airbrushed from history.
Edith Cavell would be a nice for one too she also showed true humanity.

I'm sure, unfortunately, that some local names of nurses, health care assistants, advisors, doctors, paramedics, gps, care workers and other staff can be thought up. A mere four candidates who died named yesterday unfortunately.
 
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