Coronavirus outbreak

[Racing roadkill]

Can I borrow your crystal ball, please? It'll save me actually having to do any work such as squander time getting that pesky data needed for my next paper. I'm certainly not going to hazard a guess as to the ultimate number of deaths as there is jst too many variables, and we are still far too early into this outbreak to make any meaningful guess. Note that even that US group ran models multiple times and got results that ranged between 14,500 and 219,000. The reported figure was just the average (and the Guardian doesn't even say whether or not this was the median or mean - I thought it was supposed to be a quality paper?). Such variability indicates these sort of predictions are of limited use.

What I can say is the UK is doing significantly worse than Italy and France (and Spain, but I haven't plotted the Spanish numbers below):

View attachment 513585
Currently, we're doing worse than any major European country. We will be fortunate if our ultimate number of deaths is similar to that of Italy.

Nonsense. The only reason our ‘trajectory’ looks like that graph, is because our people don’t seem to be able to decide how to count. Every time the existing numbers, collected in the agreed way, at the time, look more promising, the way in which the numbers are worked out changes. New cases are included, from sources which really don’t bear relation to the originally agreed way, which was primarily to try and feed data into the algorithm used to predict flows of people who were reaching hospitals ( and more importantly) getting to the stage of needing critical care / ventilators. That’s gone clean out of the window now, and the numbers are being added to, by cases which would have little / no effect on the important ‘flow rate’ in order to justify the situation we find ourselves in now, by keeping the ‘perceived fear factor’ high.

 

[winjim]

^^^ what does SMH mean, @winjim?

Shaking My Head.

An expression of frustration, or despair, or disbelief etc

 

[newfhouse]

However, the U.S.A. officially classify it as a “biological agent” ( as in a biological weapon) now and use anti terror legislation to deal with anyone claiming to be deliberately spreading it.

The same as salmonella then. Your point?

 

[Eziemnaik]

Interesting data from Sweden, updated daily, describing ICU occupancy, risk factors (age, obesity, diabetes, hypertension etc), sex bias

https://www.icuregswe.org/en/data--results/covid-19-in-swedish-intensive-care/

It is interesting to compare transparency compared to UK or Spain

 

[Racing roadkill]

The same as salmonella then. Your point?

My point is that it’s classified as a terrorist weapon in the USA.

 

[Rocky]

My point is that it’s classified as a terrorist weapon in the USA.

And so? How does that contribute to the debate about its origins?

Did you know it was also illegal to knowingly infect someone with HIV?

 

[winjim]

My point is that it’s classified as a terrorist weapon in the USA.

You linked it to your claim that it was developed in a lab. I already explained why that was bogus.

 

[Racing roadkill]

Interesting data from Sweden, updated daily, describing ICU occupancy, risk factors (age, obesity, diabetes, hypertension etc), sex bias

https://www.icuregswe.org/en/data--results/covid-19-in-swedish-intensive-care/

It is interesting to compare transparency compared to UK or Spain

You could almost trust that lot. Unlike our lot, who’s bumbling incompetence means that making any sort of informed judgement is virtually impossible ( that won’t stop the hand wringers trying though).

 

[Rocky]

You could almost trust that lot. Unlike our lot, who’s bumbling incompetence means that making any sort of informed judgement is virtually impossible ( that won’t stop the hand wringers trying though).

Bumbling incompetence.....fine words from a man who spreads lies and conspiracy theories.

 

[Proto]

My apologies if this has been posted before but full marks to Emily Maitlis

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...ht-bbc-inequality-boris-johnson-a9456696.html

 

[lane]

Which, according to the paper I linked before is well below 1%, closer to 0.1%

If that is the paper saying 50% are already infected and the infection started spreading much earlier in Jan I really have serious doubts about that to the point I am amazed it was published. 50% of people got infected but no one died and nor suddenly we have 1,000 a day dieing while the other 50% get infected. Hardly credible. Wishful thinking.

 

[Racing roadkill]

I think there should be a universal law adopted, across the world, that if it’s usually given a collar and / or a name, by people, or that the majority of people would run out screaming, if they found one in their bathroom, it’s made illegal to eat it. That might help stop any repeats of this situation.

 

[deptfordmarmoset]

Interesting data from Sweden, updated daily, describing ICU occupancy, risk factors (age, obesity, diabetes, hypertension etc), sex bias

https://www.icuregswe.org/en/data--results/covid-19-in-swedish-intensive-care/

It is interesting to compare transparency compared to UK or Spain

It would be good to also have obesity rates to establish how it stands as a risk factor.

 

[lane]

I think there should be a universal law adopted, across the world, that if it’s usually given a collar and / or a name, by people, or that the majority of people would run out screaming, if they found one in their bathroom, it’s made illegal to eat it. That might help stop any repeats of this situation.

If you really want to be safe you should take that a bit further and ban the eating and farming of all meat products.

 

[Racing roadkill]

If that is the paper saying 50% are already infected and the infection started spreading much earlier in Jan I really have serious doubts about that to the point I am amazed it was published. 50% of people got infected but no one died and nor suddenly we have 1,000 a day dieing while the other 50% get infected. Hardly credible. Wishful thinking.

Not at all. It’s well known that a significant percentage of people who get infected are completely asymptotic, or have such mild symptoms that they wouldn’t bother mentioning it normally. You can’t report that someone has died, of something you didn’t know existed. In the early days of this outbreak, that’s what would have happened. The “sudden” amount of deaths, was only because they now had something to attribute the death to.