Coronavirus outbreak

[icowden]

The modelling from Imperial last week was suggesting that patients without Ventilation occupy a general acute bed for approx 8 days. Those requiring acute support and ventillation are 3 days general acute, 10 days ITU then 6 days general acute. Currently NHS Informatics are trying to assess data from clinical systems to see if the reality matches the projection, and if not, how far out it is.

 

[Pat "5mph"]

Mod Note:
@Racing roadkill please do not post fake news like your post below.
News posts about the Covid19 emergency must contain links by reputable sources (not FB, nor tabloids), must be up to date because the situation is evolving rapidly, must be made with intent to inform.
Any posts diverting from these guidelines will result in a thread ban.
Thank you.
Fake News example:

According to the people on the front line at several large hospitals the morgues and ICUs aren’t “overflowing” ( quite the opposite is true ) , in fact they are reporting that there’s no real need for the ‘Nightingale hospitals’ as things stand, as the flow of patients is not that severe at present ( which was the original primary idea of the lockdown measures) that is just about the worst bit of unjustified rubbish that’s been spouted on here so far. You have to remember that the ICU system is not a closed system, people go in, they recover ( or die ) they then come out of the unit, and that place is vacant again. It’s all about managing the flow / throughput ( or was until the handwringers managed to change the agenda).

 

[lane]

Manchester:

"Chief Constable Ian Hopkins said "each and every one of us need take this seriously".

There were 1,132 coronavirus-related breaches reported between Saturday and Tuesday, the force said.

That included 494 house parties - some with DJs, fireworks and bouncy castles - and 166 street parties."

I find this hard to believe but have copied it from the BBC news website.

 

[kingrollo]

The modelling from Imperial last week was suggesting that patients without Ventilation occupy a general acute bed for approx 8 days. Those requiring acute support and ventillation are 3 days general acute, 10 days ITU then 6 days general acute. Currently NHS Informatics are trying to assess data from clinical systems to see if the reality matches the projection, and if not, how far out it is.

That would be more or less the case with my friend. He was really up against it at one stage - and ITU for around 10 days - now still needs oygen but out of ITU.

 

[Racing roadkill]

This is possibly the source of the story:-

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/03/nightingale-emergency-coronavirus-hospital-london

That’s one that’s made it to the press, yes. I’ve spoken to actual people working in such places that confirm that this is more of a normal situation, not an exception.

 

[Racing roadkill]

As demonstrated by the arrival of the first handful of patients in the overflow Nightingale field hospital.

A handful, in a 1000 bed facility, and they were moved there to help the clowns in charge save face, not through necessity. That says it all.

 

[Rocky]

A handful, in a 1000 bed facility, and they were moved there to help the clowns in charge save face, not through necessity. That says it all.

Fake news and yet another conspiracy theory. It’s also pretty insulting to those of us who have friends, relatives working on the frontline.

 

[Racing roadkill]

I work at a hospital - not frontline - the feedback I get is pretty much as above ICUs are full.

I know a 54 year old - who spent 10 days in ICU - with that sort of turn around - there obviously aren't going to be enough ICU beds

I wish it were different - but it isn't.

Pete.

That example ( the 54 year old ) is at the extreme end of the scale, not the norm, which is what the modelling works on. Indeed the modelling takes account of the extremes and makes allowances.

 

[kingrollo]

That example ( the 54 year old ) is at the extreme end of the scale, not the norm, which is what the modelling works on. Indeed the modelling takes account of the extremes and makes allowances.

So how long does a covid 19 patient - who needs an ICU bed - stay then ....per the modelling ?

Boris is now what ..day 3 in ICU ..

 

[Yellow Fang]

Don't know whether Aljazeera is considered as a more reliable source than Facebook or a tabloid, but this article says:

Director-Generalof the World Health Organization Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesu has called such speculation part of an "infodemic" of fake news surrounding the coronavirus, while other public health officials said they belong with the slew of conspiracy theories claiming that the virus was engineered (all scientists who have studied the genome of the virus agree that would be impossible).

But some scientists, both within China and elsewhere, say an accidental leak remains a possibility - insofar as there is no evidence to disprove it.

"There is nothing 'fake' about lab accidents," said Richard Ebright, a molecular biologist and director at the Waksman Institute of Microbiology at Rutgers University in New Jersey, US. "There also is nothing 'conspiratorial' about lab accidents."

and

In mid-February, scientists from two of China's most prestigious polytechnics, including one in Wuhan, circulated a pre-print paper, one that has not undergone peer review, detailing accidents involving bats at the lab of the Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). After being attacked and urinated on by the bats, a researcher quarantined himself for 14 days.

The CDC lab is located280 metres (919 feet) from the seafood market and across the street from the hospital that were the sites of the earliest clusters of COVID-19 cases. The authors made a circumstantial case for the virus "probably originate[ing] from a laboratory in Wuhan".

and

Yet, Shi and her American collaborators have shown that in a laboratory environment bat coronaviruses can jump directly to humans.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Don't know whether Aljazeera is considered as a more reliable source than Facebook or a tabloid, but this article says:

Director-Generalof the World Health Organization Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesu has called such speculation part of an "infodemic" of fake news surrounding the coronavirus, while other public health officials said they belong with the slew of conspiracy theories claiming that the virus was engineered (all scientists who have studied the genome of the virus agree that would be impossible).

But some scientists, both within China and elsewhere, say an accidental leak remains a possibility - insofar as there is no evidence to disprove it.

"There is nothing 'fake' about lab accidents," said Richard Ebright, a molecular biologist and director at the Waksman Institute of Microbiology at Rutgers University in New Jersey, US. "There also is nothing 'conspiratorial' about lab accidents."

and

In mid-February, scientists from two of China's most prestigious polytechnics, including one in Wuhan, circulated a pre-print paper, one that has not undergone peer review, detailing accidents involving bats at the lab of the Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). After being attacked and urinated on by the bats, a researcher quarantined himself for 14 days.

The CDC lab is located280 metres (919 feet) from the seafood market and across the street from the hospital that were the sites of the earliest clusters of COVID-19 cases. The authors made a circumstantial case for the virus "probably originate[ing] from a laboratory in Wuhan".

and

Yet, Shi and her American collaborators have shown that in a laboratory environment bat coronaviruses can jump directly to humans.

The conspiracy theory is that this was deliberately engineered in a Chinese lab, I think.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Johnson reported as "continuing to improve" but still in ICU.

Given that we were originally told he was only in ICU as a precaution rather than necessity, this, yet again, strains the bounds of credulity on his condition.

I hope he recovers well.

 

[Joey Shabadoo]

But some scientists, both within China and elsewhere, say an accidental leak remains a possibility - insofar as there is no evidence to disprove it.

Nah - this is standard deflection techniques taken straight from the Soviet, er, Russian playbook. When they shot down an airliner over Ukraine they flooded social media with "what if" scenarios. "What if" it was a terrorist bomb, "What if" it was pilot error, "What if" it was shot down by a Ukrainian bomber etc etc, all wasting official resources who have to spend time explaining how these examples are ridiculous. Same when they conducted a chemical weapons attack in Salisbury - "What if" it was American chemicals, "What if" the victims had accidentally come into contact with chemicals accidentally released from nearby Porton Down, "What if" the agents involved were just innocent tourists visiting the cathedral.

 

[kingrollo]

Johnson reported as "continuing to improve" but still in ICU.

Given that we were originally told he was only in ICU as a precaution rather than necessity, this, yet again, strains the bounds of credulity on his condition.

I hope he recovers well.

Not a medical professional - but I thought you stay in ICU as long as needed. You can improve but still be il l enough to need ICU -

 

[Johnno260]

My wife works in one of the newest and most modern hospitals in southern England, they have been taking C-19 patients for weeks now from London overflow. The wards there are now getting rather packed and PPE is running out.

As for the Nightingale even if they currently only have a few patients, you would rather they created zero extra capacity?

I would rather they had the extra beds, and never needed them, than the alternative.