Coronavirus outbreak

[kingrollo]

Are we really Italy in 2 weeks time ?

Italy's just seemed to explode out of no where - UK seems to have been slower....

I guess with the different testing regimes it will be difficult to judge. I suspect daily deaths will become the metric rather than infection s...

 

[Buck]

He looks like a dosser to me. A real cross-the-road-if-he's-walking-towards-you type. The sort who'd be asking you if you could lend him a couple of quid. I know it's wrong to look disparagingly at a person's sartorial foibles but the newspapers weren't shy about doing this in a recent election, were they? Or with Michael Foot a few years ago. Whitty does look like a right tramp though and there's no hiding from that.

Oh dear. Not the most intelligent observation or comment. Very judgemental. Perhaps a period of self-reflection for you is in order?

 

[Inertia]

I'm sorry if I'm missing something, you said he followed the advice of his experts for his announcement on Wednesday, the article says the scientists backed his decision when they were asked on Thursday.
Aren't advised and backed different things?

Well looks like claim is debunked, unless there is more evidence.

I think PR was onto something when he mentioned our special relationship is actually the answer. Trump has golf courses in the UK and Ireland, does he have any in the EU?

 

[glasgowcyclist]

Are we really Italy in 2 weeks time ?

I sincerely hope not; they’ve had 188 deaths in the past 24 hours.

 

[PK99]

He looks like a dosser to me. A real cross-the-road-if-he's-walking-towards-you type. The sort who'd be asking you if you could lend him a couple of quid. I know it's wrong to look disparagingly at a person's sartorial foibles but the newspapers weren't shy about doing this in a recent election, were they? Or with Michael Foot a few years ago. Whitty does look like a right tramp though and there's no hiding from that.

Are you looking in the mirror?

 

[marinyork]

Are we really Italy in 2 weeks time ?

Italy's just seemed to explode out of no where - UK seems to have been slower....

I guess with the different testing regimes it will be difficult to judge. I suspect daily deaths will become the metric rather than infection s...

No.

Valance said very clearly in that press conference he thinks we are four weeks behind Italy.

Some of the stuff said also seemed to hint they believe the patient uno theory.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

I sincerely hope not; they’ve had 188 deaths in the past 24 hours.

I saw a graph (but can't remember where) showing growth rates in different countries. We're exactly on track to be where Italy is in two weeks.

 

[Buck]

Are we really Italy in 2 weeks time ?

Italy's just seemed to explode out of no where - UK seems to have been slower....

I guess with the different testing regimes it will be difficult to judge. I suspect daily deaths will become the metric rather than infection s...

I don’t know if we will see a major step change in 2 weeks or so but from what is being said today, they suggest the peak will be 10-14 weeks away. The plan is to prevent the peak level of infections (which they are modelling at a worst case scenario of 80%) to build over a longer period rather than spike as it did in China etc.

Re deaths, the prediction is for 1% or less of those infected which at 1% could be a staggering 530,000 people. I think you are right that the death numbers will be more prevalent soon but only time will tell as to whether the predictions and plans are right.

We just need to play our part re basic hygiene and considering who, how and when we meet others and if needs be, self isolation.

 

[RoadRider400]

So we have gone from
"For most people this is a mild illness"
To
"Many more people are going to lose loved ones before there time"

They are not mutually exclusive. Whats the problem?

 

[roubaixtuesday]

I saw a graph (but can't remember where) showing growth rates in different countries. We're exactly on track to be where Italy is in two weeks.

Here you go... 10 days behind Italy

 

[roubaixtuesday]

And Mikel Arteta has tested positive.

Surely the footie is all off now?

 

[Ming the Merciless]

Are we really Italy in 2 weeks time ?

Italy's just seemed to explode out of no where - UK seems to have been slower....

I guess with the different testing regimes it will be difficult to judge. I suspect daily deaths will become the metric rather than infection s...

The figure estimated 5-10,000 infected.

Now the fact they are not in the figures means some possible things

They are not sick enough to request care (where they would get tested) and therefore have mild symptoms or nothing beyond flu like.
If they have flu they hopefully are confined to bed and not infecting anyone else. That excludes anyone looking after them in same household who may be infected but not showing signs yet.
They are still in the incubation period and not showing symptoms etc.
Any of the above they may still be contagious.

I’ve read about your son and you need to be planning how you are going to protect / isolate him. The Government isn’t going to do it for you.

Being inside is going to drive anyone crazy. So consider empty outdoor spaces you can take him to get fresh air without interacting with others. Keep the inside of your car virus free. Always wash your hands and the handles before getting in etc. Don’t offer lifts outside family if you currently do this.

minimise your own and your families social contact / interaction

 

[Ming the Merciless]

So we have gone from
"For most people this is a mild illness"
To
"Many more people are going to lose loved ones before there time"

Both are true but for that 5% for whom it is serious it’s a lot when you take it as a percentage of 70,000,000 people. Roughly 350,000 in serious life threatening condition. Our intensive care can not cope with that number at once. Hence delay as in flatten the peak and stretch it out. Otherwise hospitals are overwhelmed and can’t even assess people let alone put them on oxygen etc. They would have to decide who gets help (who has the best chance of survival given resources) and who is left to die (or recover by themselves). It will be like war zone triage.

 

[marinyork]

As was made clear today if 10 to 20 times have it than have tested positive, then test numbers in Italy are also fairly meaningless too. As it increases they may be further out. This could mean 300,000 to 500,000 in Italy having the virus.

 

[randynewmanscat]

Here you go... 10 days behind Italy

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Including Iran seems hopeful at best, think of a number and multiply by a number would be apt for Iran.