COVID Vaccine !

[PK99]

Pfizer vaccine good for at least six months.
https://www.clickorlando.com/news/l...covid-19-vaccine-works-for-at-least-6-months/

The Moderna vaccine is similar.
https://www.clickorlando.com/news/l...-effective-for-at-least-6-months-study-shows/

Does this mean that it'll be a yearly jab required?

No, it means that there Is data for 6 months whis say it is still working in the people wo first received it.

 

[Eric Olthwaite]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/health-56731430

Herd immunity is elusive, according to Fauci.

Herd immunity is maths. It's not an elusive concept.

The parameters required to achieve herd immunity may be hard to determine; that's an entirely different issue.

I think that's consistent with what he's saying, but his language is sloppy.

 

[C R]

Herd immunity is maths. It's not an elusive concept.

The parameters required to achieve herd immunity may be hard to determine; that's an entirely different issue.

I think that's consistent with what he's saying, but his language is sloppy.

It depends, the issue is herd immunity with respect to what. There's no single variety of the virus that causes covid 19, so we are looking at a situation that may be more like the flu than like measles. We can achieve herd immunity through vaccination for the latter, but not for the former.

 

[Ajax Bay]

The issue of herd immunity that matters is the effect on the Rt number with NPIs reduced to an acceptable level - because if that is >1, cases will rise. Fauci posited a herd immunity percentage of between 70% and 85% but merely pointed out reaching it would not be a cliff edge thing. And without vaccinating under 18s, those figures will be difficult to achieve in UK (67M total, 14M under 18s, 3M unables, 50/67 is (only) 75%. Could increase that by including the number of under 18s who have post-infection antibodies.
In UK (and the USA) there'll be regional disparities - I hear that vaccine take-up in JCVI Gps 1-9 in the SW is 97% whereas in London it's 86% [Edit: but in London there'll be a much higher percentage of under 50s who have post-infection antibodies]
As the percentage of the population still susceptible (un-vaccinated or without sufficient antibodies from previous infection) decreases, the transmission chains should be obstructed.
The measles v flu similarity will depend on whether the various vaccines have sufficient effectiveness [v transmission] against emerging VoC (and the jury will need to sit a while longer for that). A tweaked set of vaccines for an autumn booster to protect the more vulnerable third of the population against disease severe enough to require hospitalisation will serve to minimise that outcome for them and allow the NHS to provide the treatments for all the other ailments, within resources.
But if the world's vaccine supply remains a limiting factor, giving 20M doses to those in UK in September will be at the expense of saving many more lives in countries where case rates of COVID-19 are still high. I don't know where the balance lies.

 

[lane]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/health-56731430

Herd immunity is elusive, according to Fauci.

Yes but he also said it will be achieved between 70 and 85 percent. Elusive was a poor choice of word - when what he meant was that it was difficult to be precise about when it will be achieved. It is impacted be other things such as how much people are mixing.

 

[lane]

The issue of herd immunity that matters is the effect on the Rt number with NPIs reduced to an acceptable level - because if that is >1, cases will rise. Fauci posited a herd immunity percentage of between 70% and 85% but merely pointed out reaching it would not be a cliff edge thing. And without vaccinating under 18s, those figures will be difficult to achieve in UK (67M total, 14M under 18s, 3M unables, 50/67 is (only) 75%. Could increase that by including the number of under 18s who have post-infection antibodies.
In UK (and the USA) there'll be regional disparities - I hear that vaccine take-up in JCVI Gps 1-9 in the SW is 97% whereas in London it's 86%.
As the percentage of the population still susceptible (un-vaccinated or without sufficient antibodies from previous infection) decreases, the transmission chains should be obstructed.
The measles v flu similarity will depend on whether the various vaccines have sufficient effectiveness against emerging VoC (and the jury will need to sit a while longer for that). A tweaked set of vaccines for an autumn booster to protect the more vulnerable third of the population against disease severe enough to require hospitalisation will serve to minimise that outcome for them and allow the NHS to provide the treatments for all the other ailments, within resources.
But if the world's vaccine supply remains a limiting factor, giving 20M doses to those in UK in September will be at the expense of saving many more lives in countries where case rates of COVID-19 are still high. I don't know where the balance lies.

Surely we get to a point where vaccine supply is not a limiting factor - probably sooner rather than later.

 

[mjr]

Just be clear with us, at what point would you open things up completely again?

I would have started opening up sooner based on the data, as I explained back in https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/covid-vaccine.267960/post-6350422 — I would actually be ahead of England now.

But what I wouldn't do is make stupid date announcements and stick to them beyond all reason. I would not remove the final restrictions (face coverings, ventilation, spacing) on enclosed spaces (especially workplaces) before three weeks after full general availability of the vaccines. As you predicted, I say it is not fair to younger people who have waited patiently for the benefit of others, if we expose them to infection needlessly. Even after GA+21, I think I would wait for prevalence to be low enough so as not to over-expose the unvaccinable needlessly.

While you may have predicted my reasoning, I note that you did not argue against it and try to claim it is somehow fair to abandon younger people to covid just because most over-50s are protected and bored with taking precautions.

 

[Ajax Bay]

Four weeks ago @mjr answering @shep's same Q, said:

I would not remove the last restrictions until case numbers are within what can be traced. As for being "out", I would have removed the blanket "stay at home" restrictions for adults already and be allowing much outdoor activity and sales across thresholds, but I would also be doing much else differently, as posted previously.
I'm happy to go out once cases are below 0.1%/week, if spaced and outdoors, so I would already be out if there was anywhere open! I probably would not go indoors or use a train or bus unless all areas en route were a bit lower than that, maybe down to 0.03%/week.

0.03% cases per week (across UK) is about 22k cases/week. UK is currently on ~19k cases/week, half what it was 20 days ago.
This backs up what @mjr has just said wrt data. If there were buses running in N Norfolk, he'd be on one (care when boarding, mind).
However in the real world, people who organise stuff need indicative dates so they can plan ahead, and 'no earlier than' is better than 'depends on the data, we'll give you a week's notice'. We've seen a perfectly justified reaction from the VC of York Uni, pointing out that giving unis short notice of an 'all students back' date is poor practice and contrasts with (as he put it) tattoo parlours who could plan to open on 12 Apr.
Giving the over 40s (about 7M) a first dose will take a fair while because nearly all the supply is being used for second jabs for the next 4 weeks. If the weekly supply increases, better progress will be made (on first doses).

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Surely we get to a point where vaccine supply is not a limiting factor - probably sooner rather than later.

I think even in the UK we're a long way from not being supply limited. Worldwide, even more so.

 

[lane]

The biggest risk to the UK now is variants. These are likely to be imported (although we can also produce our own!). The scientists seemed agreed that we can't keep them at bay forever - or even very long. some scientists are arguing for stricter lockdowns and travel restrictions in areas with variants - although I can't see that working for very long as the Tiers failed to do. The variant in Brazil seems to be putting a lot of under 40s in hospital. My own view is that it is inevitable that these will eventually cause more restrictions to be imposed on the UK. For the time being i am making the most of being vaccinated and the lower rates to get out and about and meet people in case it doesn't last (I don't expect it will).

 

[roubaixtuesday]

My own view is that it is inevitable that these will eventually cause more restrictions to be imposed on the UK

You think?

Unless there's a near complete immunity escapee variant, which most people seem to think unlikely, I don't see it. I don't think people would comply, as it could happen again and again and again, year after year.

We'd just live with it like a bad flu season I think.

We might run annual booster jabs with latest variant(s) of concern.

Of course, no one can be certain of any of this.

 

[matticus]

The scientists seemed agreed that we can't keep them at bay forever - or even very long. some scientists are arguing for stricter lockdowns and travel restrictions in areas with variants - although I can't see that working for very long as the Tiers failed to do

Seems to me that for us to reach a sustainable "new normal" that gets us through the next 2-3 years, we need to find the right way to manage this stuff.

 

[lane]

You think?

Unless there's a near complete immunity escapee variant, which most people seem to think unlikely, I don't see it. I don't think people would comply, as it could happen again and again and again, year after year.

We'd just live with it like a bad flu season I think.

We might run annual booster jabs with latest variant(s) of concern.

Of course, no one can be certain of any of this.

Annual booster jabs will be the answer I expect but we might not be able to deploy them just yet. People have a tendency to comply if things get bad and deaths and hospitalizations dramatically increase - well they have on the whole so far. Obviously hope I am wrong.

 

[mjr]

The biggest risk to the UK now is variants. These are likely to be imported (although we can also produce our own!).

If gov.uk remove the final precautions too early because of foolish pride in sticking to Boris's premature specification and infections soar among younger people then we will have more chance of producing a variant, won't we?

 

[Ajax Bay]

If gov.uk remove the final precautions too early because of foolish pride in sticking to Boris's premature specification and infections soar among younger people then we will have more chance of producing a variant, won't we?

Yes, but relaxing the restrictions "too early" is not going to happen. This is a key benefit of offering 'not earlier than' dates (specification?), which you seem to have decried in the past (the other key benefit is allowing industries and companies to plan ahead with a modicum of assurance). Infections are not going to "soar" (define 'soar' please - cases per day peak ten times current level?) among "younger people". Bear in mind a good percentage of 18-29s have antibodies from previous infection.
The more prevalent the disease is the more chance a VoC will emerge. But the UK's superb genomic capability and one million plus testing capacity means the systems are in place to identify emerging VoC (and current VoC not B.1.1.7) and we are seeing surge testing and tracing applied in some London boroughs (and elsewhere last week).
Finally I confess growing a little bored by your constant irrelevant introduction of the Prime Minister's leadership responsibility to these 'chats'. it detracts and distracts from the nuggets of quality info you share with us.