How can you tell if a trend will last or not?

[swansonj]

There's an interesting thread at the moment about whether single chainring setups are a marketing gimmick or here to stay. But it seems to me that's just one instance of a new innovation. If you buy new bikes every few years, you probably don't mind choosing a new trend only to discover in a few years it has dropped from popularity. But if you buy bikes to last, it would be helpful to know which of the latest trends are likely to last.

Integrated brake/gear levers; cassettes instead of freewheels; Aheadsets instead of quill stems; these all seem to be here to stay.

Square taper bottom brackets certainly displaced cotters, but are they now permanently displaced by new bearing designs?

26 instead of 27" wheels seemed to come but are now going again? Elliptical chainrings have never lasted?

Disk brakes and carbon frames both seem here to stay but without completely displacing what went before.

Tubeless tyres? through axles? single chainrings? electric shifting?

Here to stay or gone tomorrow? How do you judge?

 

[MontyVeda]

I can't see electric shifting staying around for long... the beauty of bikes is the simplicity.

My first MTB back in the mid 90s had elliptical chain rings but I've not seen them since... I don't miss them either.

 

[raleighnut]

Leather Saddles and handmade Steel frames seem to have come back into fashion.

 

[Oldfentiger]

I wonder how long it will be before a manufacturer tries peripheral disc brakes, moving the braking force closer to the road and reducing the torque loads on the spokes.

 

[raleighnut]

I wonder how long it will be before a manufacturer tries peripheral disc brakes, moving the braking force closer to the road and reducing the torque loads on the spokes.

And then comes up with the bright idea of integrating them into the wheel rim for simplicity.

 

[FishFright]

Applied Retrospective Sampling and Extrapolation is the only approved method.

 

[Oldfentiger]

And then comes up with the bright idea of integrating them into the wheel rim for simplicity.

Yes, but would still need to be detachable, or we'd be back to braking surface wear requiring wheel rim replacement.

 

[Heltor Chasca]

Cable ties.

Can’t see them lasting the full duration of a lap of the goldfish bowl.

 

[swansonj]

...

Put it the other way. What new trend has actually appeared and then disappeared?
....

I'd agree few innovations disappear altogether. But I think that are quite a few that never become mainstream, or look as if they might then recede again.

Is my impression right that a decade or two ago, it looked like 26" wheels would become the norm, driven by MTB popularity,and 27" (however labelled) would recede into a sporting niche, whereas in fact the unexpected trend has been the other way, with MTBs switching to larger wheels?

 

[Fab Foodie]

I'd agree few innovations disappear altogether. But I think that are quite a few that never become mainstream, or look as if they might then recede again.

Is my impression right that a decade or two ago, it looked like 26" wheels would become the norm, driven by MTB popularity,and 27" (however labelled) would recede into a sporting niche, whereas in fact the unexpected trend has been the other way, with MTBs switching to larger wheels?

.... and a trend towards 650 C/B or 26" for touring/Expedition and non-racing usage!

 

[Jody]

My first MTB back in the mid 90s had elliptical chain rings but I've not seen them since...

Oval chainrings are a thing again.
http://www.mbr.co.uk/reviews/products/absolute-black-oval-chainring-review

 

[Jody]

Tubeless tyres? through axles?

I can see these two lasting. Through axles have been used for 20 odd years on MTB and tubeless is a great step forward.

 

[marzjennings]

Firstly all technology has a shelf life and in general we have to accept whatever we buy today will be incompatible in a few years. But fortunatley with bikes it seems there’s always someone ensuring old tech is available or recreatable. Unlike my old mini-disc player for which I can’t find new discs for.

For me I’ve always kept an eye on new trends, but only really bought in after a year or two when the new idea seems to be sticking around. Once it seems a new trend is supported by multiple manufactures it’s a reasonably safe bet the new tech has legs for a for years. For example I don’t see anti-lock brakes ever becoming the norm, or even a hub that can control tyre pressure really taking off.

 

[Kajjal]

It depends on practicality, marketing and built in redundancy. Often standards are changed to force people to upgrade / replace or create a "new" market. If you take mountain biking disk brakes, suspension and gearing have improved things massively. 3 x 8 gearing works fine but 2 x 11 or 1 x 11 is easier to use. Disc brakes are much better than the early 1990's cantilever brakes which were brakes in name only. The improvement in riding from 1990's rigid to current suspension designs is huge. The trick is to buy what works for you but is not too far off the mainstream to be supported.

 

[MontyVeda]

Firstly all technology has a shelf life and in general we have to accept whatever we buy today will be incompatible in a few years. But fortunatley with bikes it seems there’s always someone ensuring old tech is available or recreatable. Unlike my old mini-disc player for which I can’t find new discs for.

For me I’ve always kept an eye on new trends, but only really bought in after a year or two when the new idea seems to be sticking around. Once it seems a new trend is supported by multiple manufactures it’s a reasonably safe bet the new tech has legs for a for years. For example I don’t see anti-lock brakes ever becoming the norm, or even a hub that can control tyre pressure really taking off.

there's still plenty of blanks going on Ebay... or do you mean prerecorded?