How long do you have left?

[Drago]

View attachment 546470

0.9 years! And you expect me to care because? Load of 🐂

If you're able to report back in 1.0 years then I will agree with you.

 

[swee'pea99]

Week and a half. Have to admit I'm disappointed by that.

 

[fossyant]

95, but they didn't mention I'll probably be in bits in a box given my cycling accidents.

 

[Deleted member 1258]

Ignoring the fact that it's based on US data,which is only indirectly relevant for a country with socialised medicine, the estimates are probably pretty reasonable. I happen to know the assumptions my pension fund uses, and they're pretty consistent with the result I get from the estimator.

With some reasonably standard estimation techniques and assumptions that aren't too heroic it's pretty straightforward* to get estimates which are OK at population level. But you've almost all fallen for the marketing technique which prints one number bigger than all the rest. Life expectancy, for an individual, isn't all that helpful. @dave r has spotted the important information - which is that your estimated life expectancy is subject to monumental uncertainty.

My best guess is that that blue bar is a 50 percentile distribution. There's a 75% chance you'll live to the lowest age on the bar, and a 25% chance that you'll live longer. Which means that if @dave r placed a bet on dying sometime before 82 or after 95 he'd still lose about half the time.

*Or at least it was, until this year - you might have noticed something happening which has completely buggered up all the data.


Interesting, but wrong. They're certainly trying to sell you pension plans - and the wide range of uncertainty illustrated shows why guaranteed income pension plans are actually a decent risk transfer for a lot of people (although they're historically very expensive at the moment). In general people underestimate how long they'll live and how expensive the last few years of life will be - so unless you're particularly looking forward to dying in penury, or have rich relatives who will be willing to pay for your few years of intensive personal care it makes sense to have some kind of guaranteed income to rely on.

It's probably turned out not to be too bad a prediction. For people born in 2050, life expectancy at birth in the rich parts of the world could well be approaching 100 - or even more if we manage to cure one or more of the dread diseases. I'm afraid that'll be far too late for all of us.

The thing is, though I'm in good health generally and above average fitness for my age, I've got a dodgy ticker, I've already had angina and a heart attack, I've got 5 stents in and on medication, I'll be pleased to make 70, anything beyond that will be a bit of a bonus.

 

[DCLane]

75% chance of living to 87. Life expectancy of 96 apparently.

My question is: given I'm not entirely human or organic which bits of me are likely to live that long? I've got pig tendon in my right hip/leg, a ceramic jaw plate, pins in various places and other bits they've had to repair. All from bike accidents.

 

[fossyant]

75% chance of living to 87. Life expectancy of 96 apparently.

My question is: given I'm not entirely human or organic which bits of me are likely to live that long? I've got pig tendon in my right hip/leg, a ceramic jaw plate, pins in various places and other bits they've had to repair. All from bike accidents.

Must be those non-organic parts giving you a year over me. All 100% natural here, although missing a few bits of bone here and there.

 

[raleighnut]

75% chance of already being dead, expectancy 71. apparently it's the drink keeping this heavy smoker alive.

 

[Mrs M]

93

 

[numbnuts]

"You still here"

 

[Accy cyclist]

Heck! 115 it says (damn',that's no age!),fancy that! Seriously though,my dad and both my grandads died at 69,so that makes me think i've got 9 years left,come this November.👻

 

[cookiemonster]

93

 

[Accy cyclist]

I wonder if the Queen and Prince Philip have done the calculation thingy?🤔

 

[winjim]

90, but I expect it's in a pension company's best interests to overestimate their potential clients' life expectancy.

 

[Drago]

Heck! 115 it says (damn',that's no age!),fancy that! Seriously though,my dad and both my grandads died at 69,so that makes me think i've got 9 years left,come this November.👻

Er, Accy, no. That's actually "115 days left".

 

[Joey Shabadoo]

75% chance of living to 87. Life expectancy of 96 apparently.

My question is: given I'm not entirely human or organic which bits of me are likely to live that long? I've got pig tendon in my right hip/leg, a ceramic jaw plate, pins in various places and other bits they've had to repair. All from bike accidents.

They call you Lucky Lane don't they?