Where's Cav Going?

[Keith Oates]

All we can do now MR, is wait and see what Sky are targeting and how they arrange the team. The fact that it is an Olympic year could well influence their plannning!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Tompy]

Sure financially they are, but the first bit you mention is the point about next year.

I know it's been discussed ad nauseum, but can't see how one team can fervently go for both jerseys? Perhaps I am wrong, but history tells us that that has only happened with individual riders of exceptional brilliance winning both jerseys and not a combined team effort involving two separate riders winning different jerseys from the same team? Or has it?

Maybe I'm wrong, I might well be.

BMC have Evans, Hushovd and Gilbert to fit in to their plans but that's not preventing the superteam label being given to them.

Not many teams have genuine GC contenders for the Tour and next year there will be a lot of young sprinters like Sagan, Kittel, and Goss as well as the likes of Renshaw and Greipel who will really fancy their chances against Cav. I believe their teams will chase down breaks more readily as a result. This could mean that Team Sky will not have to work as hard as HTC-Highroad had to to ensure a bunch sprint.

If they do have to chase down breaks there's not a lot wrong with the theory that it would help the GC man to stay out of trouble if he sat on the back of his team mates while they chase down at the head of the peloton. HTC-Highroad used to use only a couple of riders for the last 40km or so - usually guys like Bert Grabsch, Lars Bak and Danny Pate - and the famous train would only appear inside the last 10km. Team Sky could adopt similar tactics and while they would have fewer riders available in that last 5km, my view is that Cav is smart enough to maintain position with only say two or three guys with him at that point.

Then again, I might well be wrong too.

 

[Flying_Monkey]

Not many teams have genuine GC contenders for the Tour and next year there will be a lot of young sprinters like Sagan, Kittel, and Goss as well as the likes of Renshaw and Greipel who will really fancy their chances against Cav. I believe their teams will chase down breaks more readily as a result. This could mean that Team Sky will not have to work as hard as HTC-Highroad had to to ensure a bunch sprint.

You could be right. But one of the great things about cycle racing is that almost anything could happen, and certainly most tactics will be tried on more than one occasion. The one thing is that, with more than one 'super-team' around the wider peloton will not be able to concentrate on just closing down one team or one type of threat.

 

[RecordAceFromNew]

yet with HTC the world of cycling was graced with a sprint train that, in time, I believe, will be considered truly legendary.

+1. The brilliance of htc was that while everybody else on the peleton knew what their objective, strategy, tactic, and vehicle were, but they were so out-gunned that nobody could do a thing about it!

 

[Tompy]

+1. The brilliance of htc was that while everybody else on the peleton knew what their objective, strategy, tactic, and vehicle were, but they were so out-gunned that nobody could do a thing about it!

Or from a different POV... "We'll save our legs and let HTC bring the break back. Then you [sprinter guy] can sit on Cav's wheel."

Don't get me wrong, there were occasions when the HTC train was brilliant but I think on many occasions they were just left to it.

Cycling is far from being "chess on wheels" as it's commonly called, race tactics are pretty limited and predictable. Witness how easily the rest of the world stuck to the script while GB bossed the recent Worlds.

 

[lukesdad]

Don t know about these sprinters fancying their chances against Cav. but they sure as hell will from a break. Herein lies sky s problem.

 

[RecordAceFromNew]

Cycling is far from being "chess on wheels" as it's commonly called, race tactics are pretty limited and predictable. Witness how easily the rest of the world stuck to the script while GB bossed the recent Worlds.

If only.

Guys I don't know about you all, but I couldn't help but winced when Uncle Fester said "I've never seen a team dominate from start to finish as the British did today" after Cav collected the rainbow jersey - the team did not dominate the critical last km or so, unlike how htc regularly did in a much stronger competitive environment, and in fact because of that the result was nearly fatal.

I think a classic example is the Gorilla. The man is clearly a strong sprinter, and while perhaps not quite as good can certainly give Cav a very good run for his money most days, but I think he usually lose it because of his poor positioning at the last couple of hundred meters, usually having to play heroic catch up's, and that was because he did not have the chess pieces to back him up.

Ok perhaps no sprinter will have such next season, but one makes one's luck, in my view.

 

[Monsieur Remings]

Or from a different POV... "We'll save our legs and let HTC bring the break back. Then you [sprinter guy] can sit on Cav's wheel."

Don't get me wrong, there were occasions when the HTC train was brilliant but I think on many occasions they were just left to it.

Cycling is far from being "chess on wheels" as it's commonly called, race tactics are pretty limited and predictable. Witness how easily the rest of the world stuck to the script while GB bossed the recent Worlds.

I think this bit is RAFN's point entirely, in that everyone knew their (HTC's) game but still they came out tops with a winner (Cav) on the bunch sprint finish. The others may well have saved their legs, but it didn't get them the stage win.

However, I do appreciate what you're saying Tompy, perhaps those up and coming teams with sprinters who want to have a go at playing the Cavendish next year, will mean that it is in the interest of more than one team to chase down the breakaway thus sharing the burden.

 

[Monsieur Remings]

All we can do now MR, is wait and see what Sky are targeting and how they arrange the team. The fact that it is an Olympic year could well influence their plannning!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Yes Keith, you're right of course. My opinions are very much centred around the Grand Tours and yet the Olympics are bound to influence the team.

 

[Tompy]

If only.

Guys I don't know about you all, but I couldn't help but winced when Uncle Fester said "I've never seen a team dominate from start to finish as the British did today" after Cav collected the rainbow jersey - the team did not dominate the critical last km or so, unlike how htc regularly did in a much stronger competitive environment, and in fact because of that the result was nearly fatal.

Name me any stage/race where HTC were on the front for over 240km and still had a lead-out train for a sprint finish? You'll struggle because in the last three editions of the TDF the longest stages have never exceeded 230km (the worlds course was 266km).

According to Rod Ellingworth (BC/Sky and Cav's race coach, who masterminded Project Rainbow Jersey) everything went to plan:

The initial plan to get Cavendish into the final corner in third place was changed in the weeks leading up to the race. Cavendish said he wanted to get round the corner in about eighth or 10th and come from a deeper position rather than take it on too early."If he didn't have any team-mates left for the last kilometre, so be it," says Ellingworth. "The job was to get him to that corner in eighth or 10th.

"We prepared him for a scrap. Sometimes in the Grand Tours, he gets uptight if a non-sprinter gets in the way, so we worked on that. I said this is the World Championships, everyone in that group is going to have a go and they have every right to have a go. So if a rider bumps you, don't have a go, it's just wasted energy."

 

[RecordAceFromNew]

Name me any stage/race where HTC were on the front for over 240km and still had a lead-out train for a sprint finish? You'll struggle because in the last three editions of the TDF the longest stages have never exceeded 230km (the worlds course was 266km).

Since you are talking about endurance here, I am not sure how the distance difference is meaningful given the Worlds is only a one day race.

The initial plan to get Cavendish into the final corner in third place was changed in the weeks leading up to the race. Cavendish said he wanted to get round the corner in about eighth or 10th and come from a deeper position rather than take it on too early."If he didn't have any team-mates left for the last kilometre, so be it," says Ellingworth. "The job was to get him to that corner in eighth or 10th.

"We prepared him for a scrap. Sometimes in the Grand Tours, he gets uptight if a non-sprinter gets in the way, so we worked on that. I said this is the World Championships, everyone in that group is going to have a go and they have every right to have a go. So if a rider bumps you, don't have a go, it's just wasted energy."

I would have thought one of the reasons it pays to dominate from start to finish is one stands less chance getting bumped, blocked or caught in accidents.

In any case, Ellingworth's prediction did pan out in that the team was not deep/coordinated enough to dominate from start to finish (as Uncle Fester alleged it did).

 

[dellzeqq]

the reason the other teams didn't chase down escapes is because they had no confidence in their sprinters. At the moment Cavendish is simply the best. Whether he stays the best is another matter, but HTC's riders rode their hearts out because they had a very decent prospect of a win. I simply don't think that Brailsford can offer the Sky riders the same sort of incentive if half their efforts devoted to a vain attempt to lift Wiggins on to the podium.

 

[Flying_Monkey]

the reason the other teams didn't chase down escapes is because they had no confidence in their sprinters. At the moment Cavendish is simply the best. Whether he stays the best is another matter, but HTC's riders rode their hearts out because they had a very decent prospect of a win. I simply don't think that Brailsford can offer the Sky riders the same sort of incentive if half their efforts devoted to a vain attempt to lift Wiggins on to the podium.

One other thing to consider here is that it does seem to be the subtext that next year is Brad's 'last best chance'. Another is that the TdF is only one of many things that any team rides for in the year. It's clear that there is a strong chance for Sky to win the World Tour team classification, and that will matter as much in motivating riders.

 

[montage]

Sky would have been grateful for Cav this year.

 

[Noodley]

I see Cav is gonna become Daddy Cav within a few months.