Corona Virus: How Are We Doing?

[lane]

In circumstances where face coverings are not mandatory, or in my experience where in some parts of the building they are and some they aren't, the different expectations of individuals is marked. Together with many clearly having little idea of how the virus might spread, can certainly make it very difficult and stressful for some.

 

[marinyork]

It's actually interesting that part of the reason for the majority potentially not being able to returnto normal is the percentage of people unvaccinated and potentially creating pressure on the NHS. I think for those who have been vaccinated this will be an increasingly difficult sell.

In the second wave because hospitalisations went up to a peak of about 40,000 from a media point of view, not a medical one, this is potentially very hard to convince the public. We may be in a position in early March where hospitalisations are below 10,000 and this is seen as a fantastic result and so not worth reporting a short time after that happens. In a similar vein last summer the lowest hospitalisations went was roughly around 1,000. With restrictions and vaccines we should really aim to be going lower than this.

An unpleasant scenario is if things rip and people over 50 realise to their horror that hospitals are filling up in smaller numbers with those of their children and children's friends or having to care for their children with long covid. The risk spread of hospitalisation is very different to that of death. Someone in their 30s is only merely half as likely to be hospitalised as someone aged 50-64 (US CDC), whereas the death comparison is 7.5x more likely to to die for a 50-64 year old. Would society see this as acceptable if it happened?

In the colour charts by age groups in many locations whenever there is a big surge you can see in the case rates that people in their late 60s and early 70s are able to shield to some reasonable extent vs other groups. For obvious reasons. This offers the issue that you want people to be able to do normal things but you've just vaccinated a group that are fairly good at shielding so when things open up you don't necessarily get big wins in drops in transmission vs now. In other age groups there are big wins though. I think group 6 debates are about to kick off, this is going to be much more problematic of who's in it and too many variations vs other groups.

 

[lane]

In the second wave because hospitalisations went up to a peak of about 40,000 from a media point of view, not a medical one, this is potentially very hard to convince the public. We may be in a position in early March where hospitalisations are below 10,000 and this is seen as a fantastic result and so not worth reporting a short time after that happens. In a similar vein last summer the lowest hospitalisations went was roughly around 1,000. With restrictions and vaccines we should really aim to be going lower than this.

An unpleasant scenario is if things rip and people over 50 realise to their horror that hospitals are filling up in smaller numbers with those of their children and children's friends or having to care for their children with long covid. The risk spread of hospitalisation is very different to that of death. Someone in their 30s is only merely half as likely to be hospitalised as someone aged 50-64 (US CDC), whereas the death comparison is 7.5x more likely to to die for a 50-64 year old. Would society see this as acceptable if it happened?

In the colour charts by age groups in many locations whenever there is a big surge you can see in the case rates that people in their late 60s and early 70s are able to shield to some reasonable extent vs other groups. For obvious reasons. This offers the issue that you want people to be able to do normal things but you've just vaccinated a group that are fairly good at shielding so when things open up you don't necessarily get big wins in drops in transmission vs now. In other age groups there are big wins though. I think group 6 debates are about to kick off, this is going to be much more problematic of who's in it and too many variations vs other groups.

That all makes sense but I am unsure of the direct relevance to my quote. My point was, once everyone has been offered the vacination, the biggest risk to hospitalisations will be those refusing the vaccination and having restrictions continuing to protect them will be a hard sell. However it's probably now a bit irrelevant as we appear to be heading for a rapid opening up so we will see how that goes.

 

[marinyork]

That all makes sense but I am unsure of the direct relevance to my quote. My point was, once everyone has been offered the vacination, the biggest risk to hospitalisations will be those refusing the vaccination and having restrictions continuing to protect them will be a hard sell. However it's probably now a bit irrelevant as we appear to be heading for a rapid opening up so we will see how that goes.

It'll be a long, long time till everyone is offered the vaccine vs timescales of opening up. Which is what you are saying too.

I and many others may not be getting jabs till August. It may be earlier. The media are getting ahead of themselves a bit and forgetting about the 2nd jab slowdown which is coming.

Those who refuse vaccination could be in hospital but also many in the small group of people who vaccines don't stop hospitalisation. A small percentage out of a big group is still a sizeable number. John Edmunds combined both groups.

It's unclear to me when a likely date for secondary school pupils would come about also.

Restrictions won't continue for those unvaccinated by choice, I agree. Nor is it clear that many in that group would want restrictions to carry on anyway!

 

[Ajax Bay]

It's unclear to me when a likely date for secondary school pupils would come about also.

My calculations (see in other threads and I've included 50% of being given as second doses from about 14 Mar (84 days after 20 Dec)) suggest all over 18s will have been vaccinated (or offered an appointment in next 7 days) by end August. So, provided the recently announced 6-16 trial is a success, the start of the September term (?5Sep) might be an excellent time to vaccinate successive year groups of pupils. There are about 5M aged 11-18 in UK. At current vaccination rates (NB in September half the rate would go on second doses from the June 'first-doses'), that'd take about 3 weeks. You'd think that single sites with 'captive' adolescents would mean this could be done rather efficiently and achieve high take-up. Would need to take care to allow proper informed consent.
Overall UK population estimate is 67M and of those ~4M are <4 and 10M are school age.

 

[marinyork]

My calculations (see in other threads and I've included 50% of being given as second doses from about 14 Mar (84 days after 20 Dec)) suggest all over 18s will have been vaccinated (or offered an appointment in next 7 days) by end August. So, provided the recently announced 6-16 trial is a success, the start of the September term (?5Sep) might be an excellent time to vaccinate successive year groups of pupils. There are about 5M aged 11-18 in UK. At current vaccination rates (NB half the rate would go on second doses from June), that'd take about 3 weeks. You'd think that single sites with 'captive' adolescents would mean this could be done rather efficiently and achieve high take-up. Would need to take care to allow proper informed consent.
Overall UK population estimate is 67M and of those ~4M are <4 and 10M are school age.

I know all that.

It's very unclear it will be given emergency licensing for the start of September. Even September there are issues having to get through sizeable parts of the population not vaccinated yet and which parts of life should take priority over others. Even if it were the rest has to go to plan till then as well.

Doing group 1-4 is great, but it's only the start. It sorts out most of the deaths, some of the problem of hospitalisations but does not so much for risks when things 'open up'. There's a huge way to go and vaccines are but one part of the picture.

The 15-19 or 14-17 age range (differs on datasets) are ones that are more problematic than I think scientists and politicians let on, for fear of a political quagmire of things spiralling out of context. It's not a blame game and school/college/uni is very important. It's a difficult situation getting those ages through to september where we might be able to vaccinate just in time for a 3rd wave.

 

[fossyant]

The younger lot are suffering. My son is on AD's and we struggle to get him out of bed - we're trying to stop the 'all night on the computer' for our own health. He agrees, then forgets... It's crap for their age group as they don't have the life experience to deal with this - why get up, I can't do anything, why bother ?

He's complaining of back pain... I'm like, too much time in bed, too much time in a chair at your computer (roken spine here). He won't even fiddle with his car as it's too cold. What do you do - hearing similar issues from other parent's of 'young adults'.

It's crap, but the virus spreads fast in those asymptomatic.

 

[lane]

The younger lot are suffering. My son is on AD's and we struggle to get him out of bed - we're trying to stop the 'all night on the computer' for our own health. He agrees, then forgets... It's crap for their age group as they don't have the life experience to deal with this - why get up, I can't do anything, why bother ?

He's complaining of back pain... I'm like, too much time in bed, too much time in a chair at your computer (roken spine here). He won't even fiddle with his car as it's too cold. What do you do - hearing similar issues from other parent's of 'young adults'.

It's crap, but the virus spreads fast in those asymptomatic.

My daughter went down hill noticeably during the first lockdown. She is 15. Not so bad this time so far but starting to see worrying signs. Hope she is able to get back to school in 3 weeks.

 

[SkipdiverJohn]

Restrictions won't continue for those unvaccinated by choice, I agree. Nor is it clear that many in that group would want restrictions to carry on anyway!

Anyone who isn't interested in having the vaccine clearly isn't that concerned about the virus, so why worry about groups of people who in any case don't want any nanny state restrictions on them going about their business as they see fit.
As far as I'm concerned the whole lockdown thing should be scrapped immediately, no stay at home, back to work, back to school, socialising as normal, pubs open, all the other shops open. Just get it sorted!

 

[Julia9054]

Anyone who isn't interested in having the vaccine clearly isn't that concerned about the virus, so why worry about groups of people who in any case don't want any nanny state restrictions on them going about their business as they see fit.
As far as I'm concerned the whole lockdown thing should be scrapped immediately, no stay at home, back to work, back to school, socialising as normal, pubs open, all the other shops open. Just get it sorted!

Otherwise known as the ostrich position

 

[classic33]

Anyone who isn't interested in having the vaccine clearly isn't that concerned about the virus, so why worry about groups of people who in any case don't want any nanny state restrictions on them going about their business as they see fit.
As far as I'm concerned the whole lockdown thing should be scrapped immediately, no stay at home, back to work, back to school, socialising as normal, pubs open, all the other shops open. Just get it sorted!

And put us right back where we started?

Presumably you'll have no need of any medical help in your future. Nor care about others.

 

[Rocky]

Otherwise known as the ostrich position

The selfish ostrich position

 

[PK99]

Anyone who isn't interested in having the vaccine clearly isn't that concerned about the virus, so why worry about groups of people who in any case don't want any nanny state restrictions on them going about their business as they see fit.
As far as I'm concerned the whole lockdown thing should be scrapped immediately, no stay at home, back to work, back to school, socialising as normal, pubs open, all the other shops open. Just get it sorted!

What complete and utter f***wittery.

 

[lane]

Anyone who isn't interested in having the vaccine clearly isn't that concerned about the virus, so why worry about groups of people who in any case don't want any nanny state restrictions on them going about their business as they see fit.
As far as I'm concerned the whole lockdown thing should be scrapped immediately, no stay at home, back to work, back to school, socialising as normal, pubs open, all the other shops open. Just get it sorted!

Do you think people who are not vaccinated, but develop Covid should be treated in hospital if they become very unwell?

 

[SkipdiverJohn]

Do you think people who are not vaccinated, but develop Covid should be treated in hospital if they become very unwell?

If they're legal residents, and pay their taxes, then yes they should be treated as they've paid into the system. After all, smokers still get treated when they get ill and they know full well that smoking is bad for them.