Corona Virus: How Are We Doing?

[fossyant]

I've had my second jab, rubbish from anti-vaxxers about injecting you with mind-controlling nanoprobes. I'm fit as a fiddle & can now pick up Ken Bruce in Dolby 5.1

Who ? You are supposed to get 5G, not Dolby 5.1. You got a dodgy batch from China

 

[Andy in Germany]

On Sunday I cycled to within sight of France and along the border for a bit. I didn't cross as you need a negative Covid test at the moment.

Being this close to the border can throw up anomalies as my cell phone is often closer to a French tower than a German one. I'm used to getting a "Welcome to France" message from my phone but this time I got one from the German government reminding me that if I've been to France I have to observe quarantine regulations...

 

[Ajax Bay]

You wait till the Delta variant takes over. If countries think they've been just about handling it up to now, their effective R number will jump 50%. The UK's history of colonialism in India has meant strong ties and family connections exist and so Delta VoC importation was fast, helped by lots of probably unnecessary travel to and from India and border/quarantine protocol failure in late March and April. We know the extent and progress of the Delta Vui/VoC because of UK's world leading genomic analysis capacity and expertise. Continental Europe and the USA will slowly import this variant: be prepared.

 

[dodgy]

Continental Europe and the USA will slowly import this variant: be prepared.

Of course, there's never any question of that. This is why containment is close to futile, only takes 1 case through then eventually it's out of control. But, in a setting of increasing vaccination rates, USA and parts of Europe will be battling Delta at an advantage, we had to defend against it when vaccination levels and awareness were much lower.

Just trying to add an optimistic pov.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

You wait till the Delta variant takes over. If countries think they've been just about handling it up to now, their effective R number will jump 50%. The UK's history of colonialism in India has meant strong ties and family connections exist and so Delta VoC importation was fast, helped by lots of probably unnecessary travel to and from India and border/quarantine protocol failure in late March and April. We know the extent and progress of the Delta Vui/VoC because of UK's world leading genomic analysis capacity and expertise. Continental Europe and the USA will slowly import this variant: be prepared.
View attachment 594092

I think (and hope) that you're unduly pessimistic on the impact on continental Europe.

Here's the same data you've presented but on log scale:

Continental Europe is now at s similar position to where we were early April with very low and rapidly falling caseloads.

It's taken ten weeks to get to where we are now.

Europe, however, is only about six weeks behind on vaccination, and vaccinating faster than we are.

Nothing is certain, but it looks likely they'll vaccinate ahead of a big delta impact.

[Edit: the Us could be in a worse position]

 

[Drago]

The UK's history of colonialism in India has meant strong ties and family connections exist and so Delta VoC importation was fast..

Not only that, but clinical trials show that habitual pith helmet weaters are 70% more likely to die of a stiff upper lip than seek medical help.

 

[Andy in Germany]

Not only that, but clinical trials show that habitual pith helmet weaters are 70% more likely to die of a stiff upper lip than seek medical help.

I believe the same trials show that instructions on "how to duck when wearing a pith helmet" improved matters: Education saves lives...

 

[vickster]

Self isolating for 7 days having been pinged by test & trace this morning. Fine but getting test later
I don’t know anyone who’s tested positive but I did take a flight on Friday and Monday so perhaps the culprit (I tested negative on arrival in Jersey on Friday).
Annoying timing as I had plans for my birthday on Monday

 

[vickster]

PCR test negative, meant to isolate until Weds though

 

[Andy in Germany]

Just checked. Our home state has finally passed the 50% mark for first vaccinations, and 40% for both vaccinations. Within the county we have a 45% full vaccination rate and they're increasing capacity. Germany seems to have got itself together a bit more now, although I imagine there will be some searching questions being asked about what the Hölle happened at the start of the programme...
We still have some restrictions but they are limited: lockdowns are phased in and out by state and county depending on the case numbers. Right now we have 3.6 per 100 000 and zero deaths.

 

[Stephenite]

I had dose number two on wednesday. Rather uneventful. Just a sore arm for a couple of days.

 

[Ajax Bay]

I think (and hope) that you're unduly pessimistic on the impact on continental Europe.
Here's the same data you've presented but on log scale: View attachment 594124

Continental Europe is now at s similar position to where we were early April with very low and rapidly falling caseloads.
It's taken ten weeks to get to where we are now.
Europe, however, is only about six weeks behind on vaccination, and vaccinating faster than we are.
Nothing is certain, but it looks likely they'll vaccinate ahead of a big delta impact.
[Edit: the Us could be in a worse position]

Thought I'd come back to this (your post: 16 Jun). Here's the current log graph. Due pessimism?
How come Germany is doing so much better: discipline, testing or reporting regime?

 

[Ajax Bay]

Thought I'd come back to this. Here's the current log graph. Due pessimism?
How come Germany is doing so much better: discipline, testing or reporting regime?

Here's a clue to the testing. The UK is conducting 10.98 tests per 1000, daily (down about 25% from the peak in early July, 10 days before the cases peaked btw) and Germany is conducting 1.00 test per 1000. Mmmm?

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Thought I'd come back to this. Here's the current log graph. Due pessimism?
How come Germany is doing so much better: discipline, testing or reporting regime?
View attachment 604433

Well, I'd say I called that exactly right! This is of course largely luck, it is impossible to predict with any certainty as it depends on behaviours as well as the vicissitudes of exponentials.

Europe has avoided the worst of it, and parts of the the US has it very bad.

I don't know enough about Germany to comment really, but my understanding is they still have restrictions in place, and a very effective T&T system. The latter may be in trouble if that consistent exponential rise continues though.

The UK is potentially heading for trouble as we enter a new school term without vaccinating children as almost all of the rest of Europe is.

There is, I think still potential for further waves everywhere in Europe, including the UK. I'm not sure if there is a strategy or will to plan ahead and respond quickly, or hold out to the last minute and suffer the consequences, as we have before.

What say you?

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Here's a clue to the testing:
View attachment 604436

Here's a different clue to the testing: