In Scotland there's an interest free loan scheme but not a subsidy as such.Don't the Welsh or Scots already have this ?
Recent history is against you.I'd guess that a fairly light ebike with a realistic range of 100+ kms will be affordable in 10-15 years time.
I'm sure that you are right about recent history but there is such a huge push now to get rid of petrol/diesel and switch over to electric vehicles that huge sums are surely being spent on battery research and production?Recent history is against you.
The push bike part of an ebike is going nowhere - unless you believe 2020 push bikes to be a significant advance on those made in 2005.
Which leaves the motor and battery.
There has been very little progress in the last 10 or 15 years, as evidenced by my 2010 Bosch ebike.
The batteries of 2021 bikes have an almost identical chemistry and density, and the latest motors are slightly smaller and lighter.
All the indications are that a 2030 ebike won't be so very different to one you can buy now.
There will be lots of marketing spend telling you the 2030 bike is a leap forward, but that's not the same thing.
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