Don't buy that electric bike just yet!

Drago

Flouncing Nobber
Location
Poshshire
We heard something similar earlier this year and nowt happened, so I shan't get too excited...yet.
 

ColinJ

Puzzle game developer
I imagine that the price WILL have fallen a lot by the time that I need one. (I'm assuming that my health and fitness don't suddenly fall off a cliff again!)

The technology is getting better all the time and should get cheaper. I'd guess that a fairly light ebike with a realistic range of 100+ kms will be affordable in 10-15 years time... (If I am still around then, I will try to remember to drag this thread out of the archives so we can see where the technology is at in 2030 and 2035.)
 
Don't the Welsh or Scots already have this ?
In Scotland there's an interest free loan scheme but not a subsidy as such.
https://www.transport.gov.scot/news/further-funding-for-interest-free-e-bike-loans/
 

Pale Rider

Legendary Member
I'd guess that a fairly light ebike with a realistic range of 100+ kms will be affordable in 10-15 years time.
Recent history is against you.

The push bike part of an ebike is going nowhere - unless you believe 2020 push bikes to be a significant advance on those made in 2005.

Which leaves the motor and battery.

There has been very little progress in the last 10 or 15 years, as evidenced by my 2010 Bosch ebike.

The batteries of 2021 bikes have an almost identical chemistry and density, and the latest motors are slightly smaller and lighter.

All the indications are that a 2030 ebike won't be so very different to one you can buy now.

There will be lots of marketing spend telling you the 2030 bike is a leap forward, but that's not the same thing.
 
@Pale Rider Lots of rumours including Dyson that are saying batteries which will produce 60% more power same weight and volume as present batteries. So lighter weight or greater range. Motors need to be made more reliable some have been absolutely dire according to https://www.pedelecs.co.uk/
In particular the Kalkhof Impulse motor. Although your Bosch is highly rated as that correct?
I can't see why the electric motors on a electric bikes shouldn't last as long as in electric car. Have I missed something there.
@Cycleops doubt this will happen within a year or so. I expect any one wanting/needing will get one now. Therefore it will be people encouraged to buy one in the future. No doubt a lot will give up on them the first time they are caught in the rain! So leaving it another year you will get them even cheaper. Furthermore it will reduce the price of any sold secondhand bought prior to the introduction. There will also be a big increase in the secondhand market as people upgrade reducing the price further. As an aside the price will go up negating to a degree the benefits of the subsidised.
Personally I am not sure which way I will go,
upgrade
New one just because it's new.
Both will result in me selling the present one which is working fine and has a nearly new battery.
OR buying the new and flogging it for profit.
I really see no need for two.
@Pale Rider and anyone else knowledgeable I will be looking for a work horse one entirely for pulling trailers. Trailer will always be attached to seat post.
 
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ColinJ

Puzzle game developer
Recent history is against you.

The push bike part of an ebike is going nowhere - unless you believe 2020 push bikes to be a significant advance on those made in 2005.

Which leaves the motor and battery.

There has been very little progress in the last 10 or 15 years, as evidenced by my 2010 Bosch ebike.

The batteries of 2021 bikes have an almost identical chemistry and density, and the latest motors are slightly smaller and lighter.

All the indications are that a 2030 ebike won't be so very different to one you can buy now.

There will be lots of marketing spend telling you the 2030 bike is a leap forward, but that's not the same thing.
I'm sure that you are right about recent history but there is such a huge push now to get rid of petrol/diesel and switch over to electric vehicles that huge sums are surely being spent on battery research and production?
 
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