Drivers, what is going on?

[Drago]

They weren't stopped randomly. There were stopped for moving traffic offences - a person engaged in criminal behaviour is also less likely to obey other minor reghlations, such as road traffic laws. They cant help themselves.

I recall one had sparks coming from his front brakes (I'm guessing his pads were worn metal to metal), whichnisnt so thing you forget. I was fresh from traffic then, so got the RPU skipper down to issue a prohibition notice and gave the driver a producer. I don't recall what the other one was, but it would have been a moving traffic offence, or suspicion of an MTO, and I never exercised my power simply to inspect documents - so many blatant offences going on there was never any need.

I don't know about the extent of their criminality, because once the deception came to light CID had it, so I only got odd details here and there.

 

[Pat "5mph"]

Im quite sure that British folk have pulled the same wheeze and gotten away with it.

Oh yes.
I have to check ID at work for underage drinking, there are fake provisional/full licences about.
Even the legit ones, sometimes the picture could be anybody.
Anyway, driving under the influence, not so widespread anymore, but still out there.
I cycle to work during the festive period, have seen some scary driving.

 

[Arjimlad]

My purely guessed perception is that the increased amount of distractions is the principal problem at the moment.

I am probably more addicted to looking at my phone than is good for me but not when driving or cycling. I've noticed some men shaving in their cars on the commute - gawping & gurning into their mirrors rather than watching the road. The number of distracted phone users is frequently over 10% in a line of slow moving traffic. We're growing less & less used to paying full attention to one thing as life throws so many distractions at us. Butterfly minded is becoming the norm.

 

[I like Skol]

My purely guessed perception is that the increased amount of distractions is the principal problem at the moment.

I am probably more addicted to looking at my phone than is good for me but not when driving or cycling. I've noticed some men shaving in their cars on the commute - gawping & gurning into their mirrors rather than watching the road. The number of distracted phone users is frequently over 10% in a line of slow moving traffic. We're growing less & less used to paying full attention to one thing as life throws so many distractions at us. Butterfly minded is becoming the norm.

^^^^This is my suspicion. People are becoming increasingly distracted by technology and just can't help themselves anymore. Modern cars are even building this in now with interactive touch screen interfaces slap bang in the middle of the dash, right at the edge of the line of sight, encouraging drivers to take their eyes off the road and do something else besides driving. This is also coupled with an increasing inability to concentrate on anything for any length of time.
If I were in charge, cars wouldn't have any screen bigger than a digital clock and would include a built-in Faraday type cage to prevent the operation of phones while inside the vehicle. Perhaps people would be able to focus on driving then?

 

[Arjimlad]

I was informed that the latest model Honda CR-V (we have a 2016 version) has absolutely everything on a touch screen.

You can't operate the heater control by turning a dial - the screen alone is used.

 

[I like Skol]

OK, here is my number crunching results. I haven't done all the graphing yet so don't know what this is going to reveal in terms of improvement/reduction in cycling safety for the individual.

Points to note;

• I assume the data is reliable and that some normalising has been done to account for any differences in the way figures have been collected/reported over the years.
• Notice the big gaps in reporting prior to the annual figures from the year 2000 going forwards.
• I may be interpreting the data wrongly. I am taking the deaths/serious incident/minor incident figures as total counts for events that year. I am taking the traffic value as a total estimated distance ridden by all cyclists that year (in billions of miles).
• My graphs purely show the number of incident type divided by the total cycle miles reported to give a figure that represents a typical cyclists chance of experiencing that type of incident per mile, year on year. If you cycle a lot then your chance of suffering an incident increases with exposure to the risk.

First, chance of being killed in an accident while riding a bicycle.

That looks pretty good? A steady reduction in risk over time, apart from a rough patch in the mid 00's. If my data analysis is right you could realistically claim that in 2016 your chance of being killed while cycling were the lowest ever in the duration of the data set.

Next, serious incidents. Let's not forget, although this is not a death it can and will likely include many people who receive life changing injuries including near total paralysis or brain damage, either of which could see them needing care for the rest of their lives!

Now that doesn't look so good. A decline during the 80's & 90's reaching a low point during the mid 00's (strangely just when the occurrence of deaths appeared to increase?) but since then an increase of approx 20-25% to when the data finishes in 2016. Could this indicate that the reduction in deaths is not due to fewer serious accidents but may be due to improvements in emergency medical response and treatment?

Finally, let's look at minor incidents. I don't know what they classify as a minor/slight injury incident but I guess it would be anything that requires a hospital attendance but a walk-out within a few hours?

What does that tell us? A general steady decline in the number of minor incidents (what happened in 1995 I wonder?)

To summarise the above info, You have less chance than ever of being killed (possibly due to treatment advances).Your chance of receiving serious injuries have increased since the start of the century by a considerable amount, approx 20%. Minor incidents have been fairly consistent this century but dipped in the latest figures available.

Now, a final way of looking at this is to consider it this way. What are my chances of being knocked off? Never mind the resulting injuries. When I head out on my bike what is the likelihood of me having a coming together with a vehicle? To look at this I need to re-crunch the data, lumping deaths, serious and minor figures together then dividing the total by the 'traffic' number...……. I'll be right back.

 

[steve292]

.

. Could this indicate that the reduction in deaths is not due to fewer serious accidents but may be due to improvements in emergency medical response and treatment?

That's bang on I think. If the medical people get to you quick enough, so much more is known about the first up treatment of trauma. I seem to recollect that the main source of this knowledge comes from Afghanistan, and the frontline treatment of service personnel at Camp
Bastion.

 

[I like Skol]

No massive shift since the year 2000. My spidey senses are tingling! Why the apparent step change around the start of the century? I would hazard a guess that there was actually a change in the way the data was recorded or reported at that time.

This last graph suggests there has been no real movement in the risk of injury since the start of the century. The general feeling among cyclists is that things are getting worse so how can there be this disparity between perception and the figures? Maybe the graph of serious incidents gives us a clue. Maybe the type of behaviour that scares us the most is also the same behaviour that results in the serious injuries. The fast close passes, entering roundabouts at speed without checking properly, simply driving into cyclists while fiddling with phones and in car systems, etc. These are the things that hospitalise us with multiple, serious injuries. Perhaps the other type of incidents are just going on the same as they always have, pedestrians stepping out, cars pulling out of side roads, dooring incidents, left hooks etc. The things that happen at low speed and result in injury, but of a less significant seriousness?

Maybe we are being worried by an increase in a particular type of behaviour? Maybe we feel the vulnerability of being a soft human in proximity to a volume of traffic that in general are performing a noticeably increased number of fast, stupid manoeuvres?

 

[glasgowcyclist]

The general feeling among cyclists is that things are getting worse so how can there be this disparity between perception and the figures?

Another maybe: maybe our perception is compounded by the awareness of others with similar experiences?

 

[I like Skol]

Points to note;

• I assume the data is reliable and that some normalising has been done to account for any differences in the way figures have been collected/reported over the years.

How have you taken account of changes in recording?

I haven't, see the above assumption, but I have considered it is a possibility.

Another maybe: maybe our perception is compounded by the awareness of others with similar experiences?

Maybe. But I am pretty sure my perception is based on my own experience of an unchanging set route over an 8-9yr period. I used to think that all the people moaning about incidents were doing something wrong because it just wasn't being realised in my own case. Then approx. 2 yrs ago I began to think things were going wrong, stuff was happening and drivers seem to just give up caring anymore. Even in the weeks immediately before my serious accident earlier this year I had a rash of close calls that made me wonder 'WTF is wrong with these people? They have their eyes open but they are just not seeing!'

But that is just my perception, which is why I am seeking some confirmation or otherwise in official figures.

 

[Brandane]

Another maybe: maybe our perception is compounded by the awareness of others with similar experiences?

Aye; too many people reading horror stories on cycling forums about accidents involving cyclists.
I'm only being slightly facetious here. Reading some of the threads on this forum has certainly made me think more about how and where I cycle, which might not be a bad thing. But for less confident road users, it might be enough to put them off cycling altogether.

 

[Pat "5mph"]

Another maybe: maybe our perception is compounded by the awareness of others with similar experiences?

I'm only being slightly facetious here. Reading some of the threads on this forum has certainly made me think more about how and where I cycle, which might not be a bad thing. But for less confident road users, it might be enough to put them off cycling altogether.

Agree.
When I first considered cycling to work, I was idly researching "cycling in Glasgow".
Magnatom's YouTube videos came up: I almost did not start cycling!
Fortunately I am one to try out stuff for myself before saying it's not for me.

 

[fossyant]

Not sure where to post this but it needs discussing and I need to get it off my chest!

I was knocked off my bike in February by a driver rushing and not watching where he was going. Result was a broken neck and fractured skull. Just getting back on my bike in the last two weeks as my condition has improved.

Tonight I have just heard that my younger brother has been knocked off his bike while out training for an upcoming sportive this Sunday. He is in A&E but sounds like he has got away with just bruising and scrapes. He was knocked off by a car joining a roundabout as he passed and hitting his rear wheel, knocking the bike out from under him. Two cars approached the roundabout on the dual carriageway, 1st stopped (RH lane ?) and 2nd car (LH lane ?) didn't stop!

What is going on? My own real world experience of cycling indicates that it is getting worse. Near misses are increasing, drivers seem to be much less capable of paying attention while being in more of a rush! My view is that this has accelerated almost exponentially in the last 5 years.

Why? Why do drivers either not realise or not care about the consequences of their actions. What is the reason for this apparent epidemic of inattentive driving and is there a solution? My own suspicion is that there is no solution, either accept an ever increasing risk or stop cycling.

Please tell me I am just experiencing a hiccup and in reality things are no worse than they were 10-15 yrs ago.......

Hmm, you know my opinion. It's a mare out there. I get cut up even in a big old saloon, by cars costing 40x more then mine. It's just madness. Seriously tempted by a fark off Navara (changed my mind from a Ranger as the suspension is pants) pick up, with big bars, and a 'cyclists stay awesome' sticker on the back.

 

[fossyant]

Cars are much more automated than they used to be so drivers think they can multi-task.

The increase in automation in cars (lights/windscreen wipers, straying out of lane, getting to close to a car in front) coupled with a smart phone obsession is reducing some people's attention spans and also encouraging them to multitask to the detriment of their driving. Even if they are not actually on their phones when driving, they are not really present and concentrating on the job in hand any more.

I've been wiped out twice by non-automated cars - little ones, i.e. little Fiat and an Aygo - the big cars aren't an issue.

 

[fossyant]

And we have a winner!

I've got every sympathy with Skolly, but he actually asks....



And I've answered his question directly by providing evidence over a 10-15 period that the risks have, for the cycling population as a whole, reduced.


is therefore the likely explanation, so coming up with explanations for why something is getting worse when best evidence says it's not actually getting worse seems a bit futile.

Really, not my experience in Manchester. It's fine in the suburbs, but hit any main run into the centre, you are mince meat. Been riding roads for 30 years, no more.

Off road now - really prefer falling off every ride on the MTB to getting hit by a car again.