UCI Road World Championships Doha 2016

[iLB]

Are we giving Sagan an outside chance of holding the jersey?

 

[rich p]

Are we giving Sagan an outside chance of holding the jersey?

It's supposed to be a sprinter's race so he has a small chance in a bunch sprint. His best chance might be to get in a wind-assisted break. It could be the dullest one for years.

 

[oldroadman]

(unless she burned her bridges with her reaction to non-selection for Rio.) It would be highly unprofessional of BC to permanently blacklist riders like Jess Varnish, Dani King, and Hayley for their outspokenness (rather than dealing with the issue), but I wouldn't rule it out.

Well as it's the road champs, Jess Varnish would not be considered, Dani King could well be there as a super domestique, and no doubt the coaches will look at everyone's data, then consider who goes well in stupidly hot conditions. In all the races rouleurs and sprinters with tons of power in the wind would appear to be a logical choice.

 

[brommers]

Has Fabian Cancellara officially retired, or might he go for the Olympics and Worlds TT double?

 

[lyn1]

It's supposed to be a sprinter's race so he has a small chance in a bunch sprint. His best chance might be to get in a wind-assisted break. It could be the dullest one for years.

Maybe, there again, although the test event during the Tour of Qatar ended in a sprint, the field split several times in the wind. The composition of the lead group was not favorable so some guys sat up. This race, however, is much longer at about 260k and UCI have changed the course to include far more sections in the desert, thereby increasing the impact of the wind even more. The race bears little relevance to a sprint stage of Grand Tours or even ToB which are usually ridden at tempo, but for the last 20k and have relatively weak fields compared to the Worlds. This race is probably more akin to one of the long Classics (other than the heat) and I would expect many teams including GB to build on a core of strong Classics riders who have proven ability to handle the long distance in strong winds and could also serve as early lead outs if required eg. Stannard, Thomas, Rowe, Thwaites). If the wind does blow and the race is ridden hard, then it may not be the fastest sprinter, but the strongest who prevails, assuming that the teams without a top sprinter have not been able to split the field in the crosswinds.
The TT could be very tough if the wind blows, so it will be interesting to see whether the 2 TT riders also ride the road race given GB do not appear short of big engines.

 

[Pro Tour Punditry]

Why did they opt for Doha?
Seems a strange choice.

 

[brommers]

Why did they opt for Doha?

Money talks.

 

[oldroadman]

Maybe, there again, although the test event during the Tour of Qatar ended in a sprint, the field split several times in the wind. The composition of the lead group was not favorable so some guys sat up. This race, however, is much longer at about 260k and UCI have changed the course to include far more sections in the desert, thereby increasing the impact of the wind even more. The race bears little relevance to a sprint stage of Grand Tours or even ToB which are usually ridden at tempo, but for the last 20k and have relatively weak fields compared to the Worlds. This race is probably more akin to one of the long Classics (other than the heat) and I would expect many teams including GB to build on a core of strong Classics riders who have proven ability to handle the long distance in strong winds and could also serve as early lead outs if required eg. Stannard, Thomas, Rowe, Thwaites). If the wind does blow and the race is ridden hard, then it may not be the fastest sprinter, but the strongest who prevails, assuming that the teams without a top sprinter have not been able to split the field in the crosswinds.
The TT could be very tough if the wind blows, so it will be interesting to see whether the 2 TT riders also ride the road race given GB do not appear short of big engines.

Most things in the commentI can see are logical. But I guess you have never seen or been present at a stage race for a full stage or you would know it's a complete madhouse for between 30-60 minutes until a break everyone is happy with goes. If you think 48-50 kph for an hour is tempo, it ain't, it's falt stick and bloomin' hard. Then maybe a "tempo" - a mere 40+ kph for 3 or more hours, followed by increasing pace in the last 90 minutes up to 60+ in the last half hour.. And that's a flat stage. throw in a few classified climbs and it can be full on all day. What fun! Looking back it makes you think that bike racing was and is a tough way to make a few pennies.

 

[lyn1]

Most things in the commentI can see are logical. But I guess you have never seen or been present at a stage race for a full stage or you would know it's a complete madhouse for between 30-60 minutes until a break everyone is happy with goes. If you think 48-50 kph for an hour is tempo, it ain't, it's falt stick and bloomin' hard. Then maybe a "tempo" - a mere 40+ kph for 3 or more hours, followed by increasing pace in the last 90 minutes up to 60+ in the last half hour.. And that's a flat stage. throw in a few classified climbs and it can be full on all day. What fun! Looking back it makes you think that bike racing was and is a tough way to make a few pennies.

Of course there are stages like the one you describe and they would certainly be tough. I used the word tempo to differentiate between typical flattish GT sprint stages and those in strong winds as Qatar is likely to be. Change the word if you have a more definitive one please. In many stages, as you indicate there is an initial hectic period, (although that will not involve the key players) and a small group is then allowed to gain a significant gap while the peloton ride at a (insert your own word) pace for large sections before picking up speed to close the gap at the end. Again as you suggest the break contains riders that the teams are happy with...ones they know in most cases they can catch. There is clear evidence of control. My point was that this is often not the case with windy races where the break or total fragmentation often results from echelons and the lead group contains much stronger riders than you would find in the usual sprint stage of a GT, thus with a very high possibility of staying away ie. loss of control. Consequently, there is a probability that the race, which is already much longer than the typical GT sprint stage will be “full on” for longer and more akin to a long Classic, hence my suggestion of a strong core of Classics riders in the selection.

 

[oldroadman]

Of course there are stages like the one you describe and they would certainly be tough. I used the word tempo to differentiate between typical flattish GT sprint stages and those in strong winds as Qatar is likely to be. Change the word if you have a more definitive one please. In many stages, as you indicate there is an initial hectic period, (although that will not involve the key players) and a small group is then allowed to gain a significant gap while the peloton ride at a (insert your own word) pace for large sections before picking up speed to close the gap at the end. Again as you suggest the break contains riders that the teams are happy with...ones they know in most cases they can catch. There is clear evidence of control. My point was that this is often not the case with windy races where the break or total fragmentation often results from echelons and the lead group contains much stronger riders than you would find in the usual sprint stage of a GT, thus with a very high possibility of staying away ie. loss of control. Consequently, there is a probability that the race, which is already much longer than the typical GT sprint stage will be “full on” for longer and more akin to a long Classic, hence my suggestion of a strong core of Classics riders in the selection.

Agreed. Hard northern classics riders should be logical. But heat may be a big problem as much as wind. It's not really possible to race full on in the wind for 260km, about 6.5 hours. Although it could be an utter bore, the odd combinations of circumstances could throw up an unexpected winner. It will come down to strong will and highly motivated teams (9 being the maximum which only a few nations qualify to have). All that points to a likely Spanish or Italian win, with GB (Cav seems to be very motivated) and Columbia in the mix. The big teams will need to use a lot of resources if the wind starts blowing hard. While many now see ToB as good preparation, and Vuelta simply ridiculously mountainous thus blunting the sprinters, the heat at the Vuelta may be the best preparation for this one. Could be an interesting race as if the wind is strong it might not be wise to give any break too much leeway, although they will probably blow themselves to bits. Whoever ends up with the rainbow bands will need a bit of luck as well, and not of the bad kind.

 

[oldroadman]

One to add, in the wind, Dutch and Belgians, but the heat may be a bit much.

 

[Legs]

Jess Varnish would not be considered,

...obviously...

Dani King could well be there as a super domestique,

...unless BC are cutting their noses off to spite their faces...

and no doubt the coaches will look at everyone's data, then consider who goes well in stupidly hot conditions

I think you mean "should", not "will".

I think you're wilfully misinterpreting me; my point about Varnish and King was not so much in relation to next month's Worlds, but just a comment that they've jeopardised their future selection chances for major championships by being outspoken about the BC regime.

 

[brommers]

I read something at the end of last week that the British team for Doha is to be announced today. Has anyone heard anything yet?

 

[oldroadman]

...obviously...
...unless BC are cutting their noses off to spite their faces...
I think you mean "should", not "will".

I think you're wilfully misinterpreting me; my point about Varnish and King was not so much in relation to next month's Worlds, but just a comment that they've jeopardised their future selection chances for major championships by being outspoken about the BC regime.

What ever you care to be convinced of, and I'm sure you will consider my right to disagree with your point. Winning Olympics and worlds is based on cold hard data, not emotion. Show me the numbers and everything is up for consideration. The one thing it's not possible to quantify really is team spirit and who is to say either of the people mentioned lack that?

 

[mjr]

Yes. I think that Froome will be left to focus on the TT. What about McLay/Blythe as a back-up for the sprint, or will that be Swift?

No one expecting Swift to get overlooked now that he's leaving Team Sky?

I'd like to see Cav, then four each of outright breakaway killers like Stannard and borderline sprinter/opportunists like Swift or Blythe.