mybike
Grumblin at Garmin on the Granny Gear
- Location
- Not 'emel 'empstead
Did anyone mention wunderground.com? They seem fairly reliable.
Unreliable weather forecasts
- Thread starter Pale Rider
- Start date
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classic33
Leg End Member
Foggy and dry 18 miles to the West o'you.
- Location
- Somewhere wet & hilly in NW England.
Dry predicted for the whole day today but it rained all afternoon. 5/10 as they got the morning right.
NorthernDave
Never used Über Member
- Location
- The real Northern Powerhouse
We're just back from a week away and it's been noticeable that the forecasts were wrong much more than they were right.
6 of the 7 days were significantly different to the forecast and the one day that they got something near right they over-egged the severity of the rain, which was showers rather than the semi-biblical deluge that was foretold.
As it was, the weather was better than the forecast, and by a considerable margin on most days.
This was good for us as we were on holiday and able to make the most of it.
But one thing that did strike home was how those inaccurate forecasts affected others. On the Bank Holiday Monday, the forecast was for the remainder of the week to be a near wash out, with prolonged rain forecast every day and a near monsoon promised on Wednesday.
We overheard people in the pub on Monday night discussing how they were calling holidays short and heading home due to the forecast.
Yet, by 9am on Tuesday the rain had stopped and the sun was out, I got a bike ride in and then we went for a walk along the sea shore, before having a pub lunch sat outdoors in the sunshine - the following pics are from that walk:
Does that look like overcast and with frequent prolonged heavy showers?
The irony is that all the weather services I looked at all made the same huge errors - BBC (local and national forecasts), yr.no and the Met Office. The BBC forecasters seemed particularly keen to play up the doom and gloom element.
How do they get it so wrong, and how many £millions must it cost the economy when they do?
6 of the 7 days were significantly different to the forecast and the one day that they got something near right they over-egged the severity of the rain, which was showers rather than the semi-biblical deluge that was foretold.
As it was, the weather was better than the forecast, and by a considerable margin on most days.
This was good for us as we were on holiday and able to make the most of it.
But one thing that did strike home was how those inaccurate forecasts affected others. On the Bank Holiday Monday, the forecast was for the remainder of the week to be a near wash out, with prolonged rain forecast every day and a near monsoon promised on Wednesday.
We overheard people in the pub on Monday night discussing how they were calling holidays short and heading home due to the forecast.
Yet, by 9am on Tuesday the rain had stopped and the sun was out, I got a bike ride in and then we went for a walk along the sea shore, before having a pub lunch sat outdoors in the sunshine - the following pics are from that walk:
Does that look like overcast and with frequent prolonged heavy showers?
The irony is that all the weather services I looked at all made the same huge errors - BBC (local and national forecasts), yr.no and the Met Office. The BBC forecasters seemed particularly keen to play up the doom and gloom element.
How do they get it so wrong, and how many £millions must it cost the economy when they do?
- Location
- Somewhere wet & hilly in NW England.
Most of them have been crap all week again here.
Not worth the virtual ink expended on them.
Not worth the virtual ink expended on them.
ColinJ
Puzzle game procrastinator!
- Location
- Todmorden - Yorks/Lancs border
Absolutely perfect forecast everywhere we cycled on my forum ride today! Overcast start, slightly chilly, dry. Freshening headwind on the way out. Sunny spells developing. A 50-50 chance of light showers early afternoon, which we got for about 20 minutes. Then skies clearing again. As we came home, a decent tailwind most of the way. Temperatures pretty low in the shade, but pleasant in the sunshine.
ColinJ
Puzzle game procrastinator!
- Location
- Todmorden - Yorks/Lancs border
And the forecast for further inland mentioned the risk of heavy showers or thunderstorms. A friend in Hebden Bridge (further inland) just told me that while were catching our shower near the coast, she was being battered on her allotment by heavy rain and hailstones!
- Location
- Inside my skull
classic33
Leg End Member
A bit further inland, neither of those.
