Unreliable weather forecasts

[Pale Rider]

Dodgy weather forecasts are annoying me recently.

A group ride to York on Saturday was cancelled due to forecast rain and high winds.

My regular Sunday morning group ride came close to being cancelled due to forecast torrential rain.

The weather in York may have been poor, but I've just come back from the group ride which was dry for the first couple of hours, then drizzly - intermittent windscreen wiper weather for drivers.

As late as last night, the forecast was heavy rain most of the day.

Today is not the first time the Sunday forecast as published on Saturday evening is significantly worse than the weather actually turned out to be.

My suspicion is forecasters are still smarting from their underplaying of what turned out to be the Great Storm in the 1980s, so they err on the side of caution by forecasting worse than what the science tells them.

I tend to use the BBC, but the forecasts are usually similar on all the sites, not least because I suspect a lot of the outlets use the same information.

 

[fossyant]

It's been non stop rain in Manchester - very wet.

 

[PeteXXX]

It's all guesswork and seaweed !!

 

[Cycleops]

One I used when flying RC models is https://www.xcweather.co.uk
Generally reliable and gives wind direction too. Based on weather stations across the UK.

 

[Deleted member 26715]

It started raining at 6am in Worksop & has not stopped since, when I was working in the new University unit in York it clocked 55 miles each way, so maybe 35 miles as the crow/raven/swan flies, how accurate do you want them to be?

 

[NorthernDave]

I couldn't agree more.

Cancelled any plans for a ride yesterday and committed to other things due to forecasts of the apocalypse - 45mph+ winds and monsoon like rain.
As it turned out it was windy, although nothing like 45mph maybe half that at worst, and the rain was little more than drizzly for a couple of hours which then cleared up.

It's not the first time and while most of the forecasters were saying similar things this time, the BBC seem particularly fixated with giving the worst possible interpretation of the facts.

 

[Joey Shabadoo]

It's been non stop rain in Manchester - very wet.

...for the last thirty years

 

[dantheman]

http://www.optimisticweather.co.uk

 

[Julia9054]

Today i am in Elland. It is relentlessly siling it down

 

[Drago]

I've noticed that the BBC now use Meteogroup, and it seems to be a better forecast than the Met Office. When you do SAR lives can depend on such trivialities.

 

[Stu Smith]

One I used when flying RC models is https://www.xcweather.co.uk
Generally reliable and gives wind direction too. Based on weather stations across the UK.

Very reliable and clear.

 

[gavgav]

They’ve had it spot on here, incessant rain for 72 hours and it’s stull bucketing down. The river will be in the town next week I fear.

 

[ColinJ]

I was going to do the Season of Mists audax event but called it off after being told for days that it will be peeing it down for hours today. And guess what...? It has been peeing it down for hours today!

I did a ride with someone on the forum once and the forecast was for light drizzle to start mid-afternoon, which it did. An hour later we were up on top of a big hill above Rochdale and he commented that there was supposed to be torrential rain, but where was it? I pointed down the hill towards a very sodden Bury - "There!" The forecast was spot on for timing, just a few kms out.

Look at the satellite/radar images. If you see a huge swathe of rain clouds blowing in towards you and likely to cover the entire area, then you are almost certain to get it. If the clouds are broken up, or you may be towards the edge of the storm then you might get away with it.

It was very obvious looking at what was coming that we were going to get it today. Out York way was towards the fringes of the clouds so it doesn't surprise me that it hasn't been so bad there.

 

[wonderloaf]

Where I am the BBC forecast said for yesterday just cloud all day, so went out about 8am and twenty minutes later the heavens opened and I got absolutely soaked.
Of course just as I returned home and was putting the bike away the clouds parted, the sun came out and it turned into a nice sunny (but breezy) afternoon.
The only upside to the morning was although I was wet at least I was warm!

 

[Pale Rider]

One I used when flying RC models is https://www.xcweather.co.uk
Generally reliable and gives wind direction too. Based on weather stations across the UK.

May give that a try.

The BBC is still saying light rain for where I am, xcweather is saying dry, which it is.

Hardly an exhaustive test, but xc is more accurate.