What will the long term effects of the virus? Will something never be the same?

[gbb]

A reset of house prices may follow soon perhaps. They're already at crazy prices IMO. (Edited to say, the post above suggests this too, posted mine before I read that)

 

[wafter]

A reset of house prices may follow soon perhaps. They're already at crazy prices IMO. (Edited to say, the post above suggests this too, posted mine before I read that)

I'd certainly like to think so, however under "natural conditions" this has been on the cards for decades but the government continue to pull out all the stops to protect the asset values of their cronies / buy votes from existing "home owners" and party donations from house builders.

I firmly believe we need / deserve a significant house price correction, however the powers that be clearly think the opposite and do everything they can to maintain rampant house price inflation. That said, on this occasion the situation is so economically-cataclysmic that even they might reach the limit of their powers in trying to maintain the status quo; especially given the raft of measures introduced after 2009 (interest rates can't go much lower, can they?).

Have you looked at share prices for house builders and estate agents? Makes grim reading for their shareholders, although they've been speculatively over-valued for a long time and also falling for a good while with no correlating decline in house prices.

IMO all bets are off as the world has become such an utterly counter-intuitive, arse-backwards place nothing seems to make sense any more.

 

[DaveReading]

An easier question to answer would be "will anything ever be the same?"

 

[numbnuts]

Some of us may not be here to find out

 

[gbb]

To be honest I've not really considered how "lucky" I am in this situation compared to many others since my existing attitudes already suit this new world, while others will have to make massive changes. I largely enjoy solitary, often outdoor activities, buy things "for life" and attempt to maintain my own posessions rather than replace or pay for service (where possible). Thankfully I have some savings and my family home is of sufficient size that we have a fair amount of food stockpiled anyway so haven't suffered too much at the hands of the panic buying muppets.

For those less fortunate though (and there are many, thanks to the longstanding erosion of workers rights and job security, stagnation of wages, growing cost of living and general desolation of past decades) this is going to be utterly catastrophic

At home we have considered how lucky we are....and those that didnt throw themselves into a debt driven lifestyle will be ok for the most part (hopefully)
We live a relatively simple family centric lifestyle, own a modest house, car, spent years not earning that much but importantly, lived within our means as much as possible.
How on earth the what may be millions of folk who are going to struggle like heck are going to manage I dont know. Renters, big mortgages, I genuinely feel for them.
The financial impact of all this will hit everyone, somehow, sometime In the near future.

 

[oldwheels]

Someone observed on the news last night that there'll be many wonderful domestic gardens out there with all the older folk self isolating through spring and plenty of time to garden in the fresh air. My dad reckons there'll be barely a weed in sight

I had decided that the garden was interfering too much with my cycling time and my veg patch was to go to a wildflower patch. That is now under review. Last year I bought a new cultivator as the old one which must have been about 40 years old was not too keen to keep going on it’s 4hp Briggs and Stratton. Fortunately I never got round to advertising the new one for sale as surplus to requirements. Back to labouring again.

 

[DRM]

And why not? If demand increases you are suggesting supermarkets won't attempt to meet the increased demand? which they are encouraging by offering deals like Asda's. Delivery Tuesday Wednesday and Thursday for a year £28. They are all offering deals like that. Delivery slots can hardly be increased overnight without training drivers and buying Van's. Do you know at one time they didn't deliver at all?. When they first started delivery do you think they started with the same amount of vehicles and drivers as they have now?

First off it can’t increase at this present time as there are only so many drivers, in so many vans, you can’t just get extra vans from a hire company as these are specialised vehicles, built to order with a refrigerated section and an ambient section, there are companies who supply the vans, but their hire fleet won’t be huge as they are mainly to provide cover for servicing/breakdowns, next supermarkets aren’t going any where, their distribution centres are huge, where I am Morissons are down the road, they occupy approximately one third of an industrial estate here alone, Aldi have 3 , one in County Durham, one in South Yorkshire & a new one in Derbyshire, Asda have a huge presence between Wakefield & Castleford, this is in the north alone, they are raking money in hand over fist as people strip the shelves bare, which is why they aren’t stopping it.
when this is all sorted out we will just go back to how things were before, no one will change the way they shop

 

[Accy cyclist]

Hard to second-guess the fallout of such an unprecidented and all-consuming pandemic. What does seem pretty obvious is that we as a race enter this situation from an already precarious position of existing environmental decline, economic fragility, social unrest and political turmoil; the virus will only serve to exacerbate these issues greatly and accelerate the collapse.

In terms of the the virus itself, it appears widely accepted that we're not just going to beat it into submission and it'll go away. Until it's worked its way through the population and most have developed immunity, it's going to be a constant battle to attenuate its spread to reduce peak loading on the health service; this will go on for months or maybe even years with the only possible alternative to riding it out being the perfection of a vaccine.

There have been reports of people becoming re-infected, while there's always the potential for the virus to mutate and become even more contageous or lethal; it's possible that this is going to be here to stay and a blight on humanity for the rest of its existance.

I think we'll see an increase in mortality / further decrease in life expectency that disproportionately affects the eldery due to the direct effects of the virus and knock-on effect of greater demands on the NHS.

The economy was already on its knees with many companies on the brink of collapse for years since the financial crisis and only kept on life support by cheap debt. We are (or hopefully were!) a consumptive society with an enormous service sector, little domestic manufacturing and a huge reliance on imports.

Those in direct, face-to-face service industries will be hit hardest first - hospitality is going to be utterly destroyed; again an area that's suffered massively already even a small blip (which this isn't) will destroy cashflow and be the end of many pubs, clubs, bars, restaurants and hotels; causing a raft of job losses. This will obviously also severely damage any other jobs that involve un-necessessarily being around a lot of people in an enclosed space.

Businesses that rely on "discretional spending" will be next in line; as unemployment rises consumer spending will crater leading to further closures and job losses in retail; especially bricks and mortar since the prospect of getting the virus from a face-to-face transaction will be just another reason to shop online.

Estate agents have been suffering through record-low transactions in the property market, thanks to the stagnation caused by the high house prices that are a direct result of the government's attempts to prop up the housing market (and with it the vested interests of themselves and their donors). Nobody's going to want to move house in this environment given the risk of contageon and massive financial uncertainty; so I think this is going to be the hay bail that breaks the back of many agents (I'll save my sympathy for the more worthy, thanks).

The economy will shrink enormously with huge job losses, in the absence of government intervention I think we'll see a significant house price correction as people hold off buying and more properties come to market through probate sales of elderly victims.

Just as in the 2007 financial crisis the government will bail out all their mates with taxpayer's money; borrowing heavily and printing money to channel more public money into private pockets. This will continue to devalue our currency; although of course since this is global and all relative other countries will be affected too so relatively speaking the effect shouldn't be as severe; although we're already on the back foot thanks to Brexit.

It remains to be seen how far the government can go with the "financial aid"; I expect a lot of short-term hardship because they won't be able to "save" everyone, plus a lot of long-term hardship in the name of paying it all off; long after the corporations have pocketed the bail outs and are once more making obscene profits and cash-rich insiders have taken the opportunity to hoover up cheap assets while everyone else is on their knees.

Interest rates will stay on the floor forever; necessary to allow the continuation of the spiralling amounts of public and private debt (which again, was already a massive problem before this happened). Debt across the board will rocket and the measures taken to make this sustainable will further decimate the savings of those who have been pragmatic / lucky in avoiding debt.

On the one hand we'll see a lot of currency deflation (inflation of the cost of necessities), on the other I also expect selective asset price deflation as the disposible income will no longer be present to buy non-essentials for pleasure or investment (other than for the rich, of course). We'll probably see appreciation of products that have greater practical worth; such as cars that are cheaper to run and items that allow you to self-sustain.

Politically the government will seize on this opportunity to serve their own agenda (as always), so we'll see dodgy laws passed in the name of "emergency measures" that will never go away, to the long-term detriment of civil rights and anyone who doesn't share the same interests as the goverment / their donors. Wealth inequality will continue to grow. Just as Brexit has been exploited, so Coronavirus will be used as a catch-all excuse to explain away all the fallout from decades of self-serving government policy.

In the short term we're definitely seeing environmental benefits and long may this continue; however, while in general this situation has got so much worse in the last few decades, there is zero political appetite for addressing this most grave of issues; indeed we might even see relaxation of laws designed to protect the environment in the name of the all-important economy

Socially, there have been concerns for years about the isolating effects of social media; now the need for people to physically distance themselves from one another is only going to make this so much worse; although on the plus side at least tech allows people to stay in contact remotely.

We'll see a rise in civil unrest and crime as tensions run high and the increasing number of people who are struggling turn to crime to keep themselves alive, while an already under-funded and largely impotent police force struggles to contain this issue; especially if more funding is being diverted away from them to pay for healthcare.

I'd like to think this is the wake-up call that we all need to see how close we've come to brink of existance; and as such cause a step-change in our immeasurably destructive habits. Unfortunately just like everything else the warnings have been out there for decades and nobody pays any attention; and while I don't expect things to ever be the same as they were pre-pandemic, I suspect just like every other crisis once the worst is over it'll be brushed under the carpet as if nothing has happened, with no appetite for future prevention or address of the issues that caused it in the first place.

To be honest I've not really considered how "lucky" I am in this situation compared to many others since my existing attitudes already suit this new world, while others will have to make massive changes. I largely enjoy solitary, often outdoor activities, buy things "for life" and attempt to maintain my own posessions rather than replace or pay for service (where possible). Thankfully I have some savings and my family home is of sufficient size that we have a fair amount of food stockpiled anyway so haven't suffered too much at the hands of the panic buying muppets.

For those less fortunate though (and there are many, thanks to the longstanding erosion of workers rights and job security, stagnation of wages, growing cost of living and general desolation of past decades) this is going to be utterly catastrophic

I'm 'liking' your post not only for the content,but for the length of time it must've taken you to type it! It has to be the longest post i've read/seen on CC!!

 

[Drago]

The greedy breweries/landlords should be forced to be realistic in their rent demands!

Indeed. Our local village pub is up 'for sale' £12,500 up front, £17,500 per year rental, also payable up front, so that's 30 gees before you even get the keys on a pub that doesn't take £1000 all day on a brisk Saturday. And the management company wonder why tenants barely last a year before quitting.

Some of us may not be here to find out

If I turn up my toes you can have a seance and let me know.

 

[matticus]

If we're all spending our time entirely with people we already know, will casual sex decline?

And thus higher %age of births be within relationships?

(or maybe with lots of offices on skeleton staff, all that space will lead to more office "romance" ... )

 

[Joffey]

I'm thinking that the long term effects will be:

• Massive economic uncertainty
• Retail will move to a home delivery model
• Maybe 3rd of pubs go
• Personal hygiene will increase
• NHS won't be short of funding for the next 10 years until Governments forget about CV19 then they will cut it again
• We'll have an annual day of remembrance for all that died and have services at the mass graves
• The environment will be better off due to all the restrictions
• There will be a lot of divorces
• We'll be a nation of homeworkers as companies see they don't need big offices anymore
• AND my final prediction - The Tories will lose the next election

 

[wafter]

At home we have considered how lucky we are....and those that didnt throw themselves into a debt driven lifestyle will be ok for the most part (hopefully)
We live a relatively simple family centric lifestyle, own a modest house, car, spent years not earning that much but importantly, lived within our means as much as possible.
How on earth the what may be millions of folk who are going to struggle like heck are going to manage I dont know. Renters, big mortgages, I genuinely feel for them.
The financial impact of all this will hit everyone, somehow, sometime In the near future.

Indeed - likewise I don't consider myself to be "winning at life" by most metrics, but granted I'm very lucky to be able to retreat to my mum's rural-ish place / my childhood home and try to ride it out with fewer immediate worries than most. I can't imagine the stress suffered by those worse-positioned to weather the storm - precarious jobs, hand-to-mouth existance, rented accommodation, kids to look after and entertain now they're off school..

I too take pride in living within my means and utterly despise many elements of our shallow, consumptive, debt-fuelled society / can't help but feel smug to think that those who've embraced such unsustainable excesses might finally be coming unstuck.. although the government will (nearly) always bail them out. That said I'm in a priviledged position not all of my own making, just as many who are far worse off aren't necessarily there through their own questionable choices.

This debt-positive model has been mercilessly pushed by the government to keep asset prices high and people placated by / fuelling the economy with cheap, disposible consumption and life is becoming increasingly non-viable without taking on enormous amounts of debt. A lacklustre three-bed '50s semi round our way will set you back £350k minimum - who can afford that without a massive mortgage?

I think the end of the road for our current unsustainable consumption-led economic model has been just out of sight for many years; hopefully now this will be the event that finally kills it, but I'm not holding my breath.

I'm 'liking' your post not only for the content,but for the length of time it must've taken you to type it! It has to be the longest post i've read/seen on CC!!

Thanks - it's nice to find likeminded folk

I type quickly and mornings seem to be a dangerous time for forums I frequent when I'm left to my own devices in bed with the laptop for an hour or two

 

[CharlesF]

I don't know what will happen, but what I HOPE for:

A simpler life where people don't want 20 different pasta, 10 varieties of tomato and so on.

• A great community spirit in blocks of flats and urban streets
• A move back to the country as urban jobs dry up (hospitality and some retail) and villages revive with a influx of new British farm labourers.
• More self reliance, fix and mend less of buying the latest and greatest.
• I do hope travel returns as that can counter nationalism when you see other cultures are very similar in many ways to your own.

Not a wish, but a reflection - the major religious institutions have been very quiet where is their response? Maybe I missed it.

 

[byegad]

Hopefully the NHS will be consistently better funded with sufficient spare capacity in normal times for it cope better with winter flu. I doubt they'll ever have built in capacity for a pandemic like the present one.

 

[gavroche]

I don't want to be a kill joy but let's not forget that we live in a capitalist society therefore not much will change I'm afraid. Firms will still be seeking profits, shareholders will still want a good return on their money and the City in London will still be trading millions of pounds every day.
I don't like the way we live either, wasting far too much and using far too many of the earth's resources without worrying enough about its consequences. The change must come from the top but do politicians have enough balls to start it? I very much doubt it.