235 miles a day for a year (Amanda Coker Challenge)

[Dogtrousers]

An up and down week. Three 250 mile+ rides, with some shorter ones. Steves slightly eccentric diurnal rhythm (or lack of it) actually makes a bit of a nonsense of assigning rides to a particular day sometimes. He ended up with 220.6 miles per day for the week. So not a stellar week, but enough to keep the overall rate trending upwards, just.

Steve's stats as at 25 Jun 17
Days: 114 (31.2% of year)
Dist: 40,534 km / 25,187 mi
Avg daily dist: 355.6 km / 220.9 mi
Avg daily elevation (Strava): 1,516 m / 4,972 ft
Moving speed (Strava): 25.8 km/h / 16.1 mi/h
Hours per day riding: 15.1
Projected total at current daily rate: 129,779 km / 80,641 mi

 

[Dogtrousers]

Yep, following Steve on those mileages is difficult and I like stats. Possibly a bit out but I'd be interesting given his desire for consistency to look at the standard deviation in his mileages over time.

I've noticed an increased tendency for Steve to put in very big mileages followed by smaller recovery days, and I remembered this post. So here's the standard deviation of his total daily mileage population over time.

So, he started out with a massive ride, and the population at the start was small so the standard deviation starts out big, and gradually stabilised. However, since about day 60 it has been growing, and made a big jump on his short day on day 100, and is still trending upwards.

And if you consider just the population of his last 20 rides, it's even more marked

 

[Dogtrousers]

Here's the standard deviation of the last 20 days (rolling)

 

[Scoosh]

"Like" the above posts (without a full understanding of what they mean but endeavouring to show my mathematical nous) but appreciating the effort and information !

 

[Dogtrousers]

I'm not entirely sure what they mean. Really just that Steve is not churning out the same distance every day, he does a variety of ride lengths, and they are getting more varied as time goes on.

 

[swansonj]

I "liked" the rolling 20 day one, because I was recently grappling with making Excel calculate rolling (10 year in my case) averages of the inverse variance weighting of certain quantities....

 

[tallliman]

Thanks for that, glad to know someone reads the comments!

I think it confirms my suspicions that his riding lengths are becoming a little more erratic over the year. When I spoke to him beforehand, he wanted consistency but it doesnt look like he's achieving it.

 

[Scoosh]

I think it confirms my suspicions that his riding lengths are becoming a little more erratic over the year. When I spoke to him beforehand, he wanted consistency but it doesnt look like he's achieving it.

I wonder if the 'more erratic' weather has played a part, rather than his fitness/health levels.

and

with only occasional

- then it's

 

[Dogtrousers]

Another week ... more miles Nearly a third of the way through the year

Steve's stats as at 02 Jul 17
Days: 121 (33.2% of year)
Dist: 43,066 km / 26,760 mi
Avg daily dist: 355.9 km / 221.2 mi
Avg daily elevation (Strava): 1,498 m / 4,916 ft
Moving speed (Strava): 25.8 km/h / 16.0 mi/h
Hours per day riding: 15.4
Projected total at current daily rate: 129,909 km / 80,722 mi

 

[Dogtrousers]

A 217 mpd week for Steve, which is relatively modest. It's only the 13th highest of his 18 "Strava" (Mon-Sun) weeks.

However it was notable for the fact that he passed his highest seven consecutive days, 29 Jun-5 Jul: 2,636.6 miles at 234 mpd.
Dropped off at the end of the week with "only" 154 miles on Sunday (only his third sub 160 mile day), the explanation being in the ride title: Struggling to stay awake and very slow so stopped for sleep. I'm assuming that there is no additional mileage to add for Sunday, as he finished at about 8pm.

Steve's stats as at 09 Jul 17
Days: 128 (35.1% of year)
Dist: 45,510 km / 28,279 mi
Avg daily dist: 355.5 km / 220.9 mi
Avg daily elevation (Strava): 1,478 m / 4,850 ft
Moving speed (Strava): 25.8 km/h / 16.0 mi/h
Hours per day riding: 15.4
Projected total at current daily rate: 129,775 km / 80,639 mi

 

[Milkfloat]

@Dogtrousers Seeing as I am lazy Could you also include the projected miles per day needed to beat Amanda by one mile?

 

[Dogtrousers]

@Dogtrousers Seeing as I am lazy Could you also include the projected miles per day needed to beat Amanda by one mile?

Er ... let's see ( 86,573.2 - 28,278.7) / (365 - 128 ) = 245.9 miles per day.

Edit, that's to equal, not beat by one mile. That would be ( 86,573.2 + 1 - 28,278.7) / (365 - 128) = 245.97 The other one is actually 245.96 for one decimal place I should have rounded up to 246.0 above.

And just for @tallliman

I might do something with medians ...

 

[tallliman]

Thanks! Again shows that the consistency he wants isn't there.

 

[Dogtrousers]

Another week. Quite low by Steve's standards: 209mpd. That's the 18th of his 19 weeks so far.

Steve's stats as at 16 Jul 17
Days: 135 (37.0% of year)
Dist: 47,872 km / 29,746 mi
Avg daily dist: 354.6 km / 220.3 mi
Avg daily elevation (Strava): 1,460 m / 4,791 ft
Moving speed (Strava): 25.7 km/h / 16.0 mi/h
Hours per day riding: 15.5
Projected total at current daily rate: 129,431 km / 80,424 mi

 

[ianrauk]

I think we can safely say that he's not even trying to go for or emulate Coker's new record, but looking like he can easily beat Godwins and Searvogels.