Corona Virus: How Are We Doing?

[cyberknight]

Club rides start again this weekend and n+1 so about more cheerful,still have boughts where I just feel meh depending on how mini CK is behaving

 

[marinyork]

Yes but also some recent research that asymptomatic cases are not showing positive through there is evidence that they are likely to have some immunity. Estimates of the % of asymptomatic cases vary quite widely but it seems accepted that they are significant, so in the UK where the % of positive antibody tests was around 7% on average actual numbers infected could easily by over 10% and possibly quite a bit over.

Asymptomatic cases are 71% - source ONS.

There are studies elsewhere in the world that suggest those that have had the virus may be twice those who are antibody positive.

It still isn't good news. 15% is still miles away from the 60 to 80% herd immunity needed to dampen the virus significantly.

 

[lane]

Asymptomatic cases are 71% - source ONS.

There are studies elsewhere in the world that suggest those that have had the virus may be twice those who are antibody positive.

It still isn't good news. 15% is still miles away from the 60 to 80% herd immunity needed to dampen the virus significantly.

I suppose it is good news in the sense that the death rate is possibly a lot lower than originally suggested - could be 0.3% as opposed to 1%? Hopefully heard immunity will arrive via a vaccine rather than people being infected - at least in this county.

If 15% of people have been infected (could even be 21% if 3*7%?) I presume it will be one of the things that helps reduce the R rate alongside social distancing and track and trace?

What is your view on a second wave now - I know previously you were convinced we would get one?

 

[C R]

I suppose it is good news in the sense that the death rate is possibly a lot lower than originally suggested - could be 0.3% as opposed to 1%? Hopefully heard immunity will arrive via a vaccine rather than people being infected - at least in this county.

If 15% of people have been infected (could even be 21% if 3*7%?) I presume it will be one of the things that helps reduce the R rate alongside social distancing and track and trace?

What is your view on a second wave now - I know previously you were convinced we would get one?

On the other hand, using optimistic figures for the number of antibody positives and the number of deaths, we would need 75 ×(40000/15) = 200000 deaths to achieve 75% antibody positives, and that assuming a purely linear relationship between number of deaths and percentage of people antibody positive, which it won't be. Also, assumes that being antibody positive is the same as being immune, which is not clear to be the case.

Given the course we are taking, and seeing what is happening in the US, the second wave is inevitable.

 

[marinyork]

I suppose it is good news in the sense that the death rate is possibly a lot lower than originally suggested - could be 0.3% as opposed to 1%? Hopefully heard immunity will arrive via a vaccine rather than people being infected - at least in this county.

If 15% of people have been infected (could even be 21% if 3*7%?) I presume it will be one of the things that helps reduce the R rate alongside social distancing and track and trace?

What is your view on a second wave now - I know previously you were convinced we would get one?

The problem with writing stuff on this thread is there are a lot of people cooped up at home worrying and for other people.

The death rate could be as low as 0.3%, that's been suggested in some small selection of countries. Given the side effects, a lower death rate would be good, but in such a contagious virus belting around the planet that's going to be 0.3%+ of a very large number . If it's even that small. It's generally expected to be 1% though. Recent comments on the vaccine from the person coordinating the UK's approach was that January 2020 was likely to be the earliest, the oxford vaccine which one member on here has had was ahead in time of the others.

There has already arguably been a second wave in Leicester, bits of Spain, South Korea, Singapore, Melbourne, Beijing, Iran, US. It depends what you call a second wave. Scarily enough even for things like Iran people are quibbling over whether that's a second wave. Vastly bigger ones are possible.

My view on what you'd call a second wave is the figures from the ONS last week were very promising, so over the summer virus levels may generally be low with localised outbreaks and restrictions. From September onwards when people start to spend more time indoors I have not heard that much from people that know what they are talking about saying that from then on is the risk of it building, perhaps with a large peak between November and February. Scenarios presented previously was a large second wave immediately, localised outbreaks or a big wave in the winter. Evidence elsewhere couple with what virologists have said is that it's 1-2 months circulating in a place pretty much unhindered before you get gigantic explosive outbreaks without superspreading events.

It's early on, we have a lot of summer to go.

General developments that point to second waves breaking out all over the world:-

• It's wildly out of control in South America and Africa
• countries that know what they are doing are having large localised outbreaks in dense housing/factories
• we're still stuck with nose job PCR with no major tech breakthroughs.
• Bad news on the natural R being 4.0 and asymptomatic cases 71%
• Tiny percentages of many populations having had the virus/antibody positive.
• Risk of indoor transmission now believed to be 19x higher than outside (which hints at some of the things discussed the last week or so on here)

 

[lane]

I suppose in Leicester at least it has been identified and lock down before it has got completely out of hand. At least that is a better scenario than we had back in March. We seem to have much more idea of what is happening than we did in March although no doubt much less than would be ideal.

 

[marinyork]

P.S. try to enjoy the summer lane.

One of my friend's view who doesn't take this seriously is that you have July and August and whilst not going out doing silly high risk things, might as well enjoy the summer as a second wave's coming in the autumn/winter. I'm not sure that's a helpful view.

 

[marinyork]

I suppose in Leicester at least it has been identified and lock down before it has got completely out of hand. At least that is a better scenario than we had back in March. We seem to have much more idea of what is happening than we did in March although no doubt much less than would be ideal.

Leicester numbers are coming down. The other local authorities I posted a lot of falls. This city was in the top ten and now fallen out of it with quite a sizeable decline on the week before. A lot of positives.

Identification is positive. You get these sensationalised stories like the Shetlands Islands which makes at least two of our north of the border posters quite wary and paranoid. The reality is the being picked up is scary but saves a lot of lives.

 

[fossyant]

We've had a letter from the Nursing home about seeing relatives. Won't be allowed in at all (understandable) but at present relatives will be outside, whilst the cared for person will be in a room with a glass window - communication via a phone. Appointments only. At least my wife will get to see her mum, but I suppose this is it. Not a great way to spend your life but the risks are high.

They hope, in some weeks, to move to a gazebo outside in the garden - weather permitting.

 

[johnblack]

The figures for June 29th to July 5th showed that 73% of English local authorites had a score of 5 or less / 100,000 infections. There were only 35 daily in London and 4 all week in Bournemouth. None in Bath or Cornwall, that's far more positive news and needs to be used to balance the constant drip of bad news stories that so many people are focusing on.

 

[johnblack]

Devon and Middlesborough 4, Sunderland 2, Darlington 1.

Using the German definition, that many see as the gold standard for how many weekly positive infections per 100,000 people defines a "danger zone" is 50. Of 150 upper-tier local authorities in England, only one is over that limit, locked-down Leicester.

That's enough good news.

 

[C R]

The figures for June 29th to July 5th showed that 73% of English local authorites had a score of 5 or less / 100,000 infections. There were only 35 daily in London and 4 all week in Bournemouth. None in Bath or Cornwall, that's far more positive news and needs to be used to balance the constant drip of bad news stories that so many people are focusing on.

Does that include community testing? Until only last week the official figures only included hospital testing, results from community testing performed by the private contractors were not included, for reasons that haven't been clearly explained.

 

[johnblack]

Does that include community testing? Until only last week the official figures only included hospital testing, results from community testing performed by the private contractors were not included, for reasons that haven't been clearly explained.

It's from the PHE data that is released each Thursday.

 

[marinyork]

The parents have gone to a church service . Apparently it's at 60% capacity.

First time out in 4 months for my mother.

 

[Stephenite]

I'm having a test on Monday.

I reckon me and the kids picked up a bug - cold virus - in the swimming pool last sunday. Whilst the kids were very snotty from Tuesday I didn't show any symptoms til Thursday (my day off). Spoke to my team leader on Friday morning and he asked if I would phone the Corona hotline. That led to me being given a test appointment and being told to self-isolate until I get the results on Wednesday.

We are supposed to start our summer holiday on Monday by driving to the 'summer cottage'. We can handle a few days delay in the interests of the greater good, I suppose.