Coronavirus outbreak

[Ming the Merciless]

And true mass testing is only possible with antibody kits, which most people on this thread and our government are phobic towards.

So there are no solutions, effectively, open to the UK government, aside from a tiny number of PCR tests and contact tracing to stop moderate putbreaks in local areas where hundreds die.

Who on the thread is phobic to anti body tests? Must have been absent when that discussion happened in the thread.

 

[DaveReading]

The "strategy", as far as I can discern, is a series of progressive relaxations and re-tightenings of the lockdown such that the number of cases at any time is just within the capacity of the NHS to treat. The "exit" from that will be once enough of the population has contracted the virus to provide herd immunity or, if that takes an extended length of time, to hope that a vaccine becomes available.

What could possibly go wrong ? It's hard to know where to start.

 

[marinyork]

Trump

There will be a lot of death

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Yes, I think it is time that this aspect of our strategy was examined.

It has been very clear, from the experience in Wuhan that a swift lockdown acts to rapidly reduce transmission rate and therefore casualties in any CV-19 outbreak. Only a fool would deny that - and Whitty and Vallance aren't fools. I have little doubt that they presented that evidence to the government. But the fact is that this is not a scientific decision, but a political decision. It has to be. I suspect that the government took the opinion that the economic consequences of such a course would be undesirable (to say the least) and decided that this was an unwise course. This is not something I condemn them for - given the damage now being wrought to many peoples' livelihoods it is perfectly sensible - if you have a reasonable alternative strategy.

So the question becomes "What is a reasonable alternative - and did the UK follow it?" The experience of China, HK, Taiwan and South Korea have shown that with mass testing and contact tracing, coronavirus transmission can be very effectively curtailed. We didn't follow that strategy either. Why I'm not sure - perhaps we'll never know. Perhaps the people advising the government understood that we couldn't ramp up testing to the degree required.

Instead, we chose what was in all but name a gamble: that we could shield those who are most vulnerable and let the epidemic burn through the UK to attain herd immunity, hoping its progress would be sufficiently slow that the resources of the NHS wouldn't be overwhelmed. This strategy ignored the data showing the CV-19 was a highly contagious disease capable of spreading very rapidly through a vulnerable population. An overwhelmed NHS and mass deaths were all but inevitable.

Johnson, to his credit, changed course once credible modelling data was produced showing his course would mean hundreds of thousands of deaths (though it still took a full week after Ferguson's study was published for a full lockdown to be implemented). What I do most definitely criticise Johnson for is the lack of any exit strategy. There are no plans over what to do after lockdown. We can't go with this lockdown for long. At the moment, we have no strategy to prevent a second peak once restrictions are relaxed - and there will be one. The one strategy we know works is the mass testing, quarantine and contact testing done by China, S. Korea and Taiwan. We have only a few weeks to implement this, time is desperately short, but we're seeing nothing of substance emerging from government. As things stand, I fear that the most likely outcome is that we'll experience both the economic damage of the lockdown, coupled with the mass deaths of a resurgent epidemic thereafter.

This is not politics. This is beyond politics. I want Johnson to get a grip and a strategy, and stop this directionless thrashing around. There is far too much at stake to descend into party politics. We need action from the Johnson government. Not promises that can't be met. Do you not understand that?

Very well put. We need to decide, plan, and prepare now, urgently and at speed, for what to do next.

 

[kingrollo]

Maybe it is time to panic;-

• There were signs of a slight drop in public confidence in the government’s handling of the pandemic. An Opinium poll for the Observer found that approval of the government’s handling dropped from a net approval of +42% last week to +23% this week.

Thats quite big drop - and when the daily telegraph turn on the tories - you know they have it pretty much wrong.

 

[marinyork]

Another rather depressing story if true.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-offer-of-400000-covid-19-testing-kits-a-week

Buy the things. If they don't work bin them or send them back ffs.

 

[mjr]

I disagree that now is the right time in that I cannot envisage a mechanism to effect change in policy. I'm at a point where it feels like we are all in the same boat whether we like it or not and it's incumbent on us all to effect the best result

It's quite simple really: you flame them to a well done crisp and this load of spineless weather-watchers U turn faster than leaves in a breeze, led by the Prime Minister, Diana Ditch.

 

[nickyboy]

It's quite simple really: you flame them to a well done crisp and this load of spineless weather-watchers U turn faster than leaves in a breeze, led by the Prime Minister, Diana Ditch.

I'm sorry, I can't understand the stream of consciousness you're posting

 

[Buck]

The "strategy", as far as I can discern, is a series of progressive relaxations and re-tightenings of the lockdown such that the number of cases at any time is just within the capacity of the NHS to treat. The "exit" from that will be once enough of the population has contracted the virus to provide herd immunity or, if that takes an extended length of time, to hope that a vaccine becomes available.

What could possibly go wrong ? It's hard to know where to start.

Is there an alternative strategy?

I can only think that this is their plan but they need to keep the public onboard otherwise there will be a peak of infections and those requiring hospital treatment beyond the capacity we have in the NHS.

 

[Unkraut]

The experience of China, HK, Taiwan and South Korea have shown that with mass testing and contact tracing, coronavirus transmission can be very effectively curtailed. We didn't follow that strategy either. Why I'm not sure - perhaps we'll never know.

I think the reason is that the UK simply doesn't have the capacity to do large-scale testing. I don't think any western country did as the outbreak got underway. All are short of safety equipment and intensive care for this kind of pandemic. The difference is that some have taken note of the small period of time before the virus seriously spread to at least try to start making up for the shortages. Coordinate a response. Britain (and the US) didn't and so a heavier lockdown possibly for longer is the result. Unfortunately the increases in resources needed for mass testing cannot be achieved quickly, so it will take time for that to be a viable strategy.

 

[ozboz]

I have learned not long ago that Lambeth Council have closed a park apparently 3000 people over the course of Saturday have flaunted the gov wishes to stay at home , this and anymore reports over the weekend may force the Gov’s hand into further movement restrictions ,

 

[Pale Rider]

I have learned not long ago that Lambeth Council have closed a park apparently 3000 people over the course of Saturday have flaunted the gov wishes to stay at home , this and anymore reports over the weekend may force the Gov’s hand into further movement restrictions ,

Brockwell Park closed today after 3,000 pitched up there on Saturday.

Seems to me stricter measures are looking likely.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/lon...ondon-lockdown-lambeth-sunshine-a4407186.html

 

[Archie_tect]

Undercover surveillance measures have been put in place... even dogs with binoculars:

 

[Eziemnaik]

Some top medical advice from an expert...
View: https://twitter.com/i/status/1246557500234661900
Ketamine man

 

[Joey Shabadoo]

I hope when this is all over, the sheer grasping greed of footballers is addressed.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/52168692

The Professional Footballers' Association says proposals for a 30% pay cut for Premier League players would be "detrimental to our NHS".