What do we think will happen to the bike market post lockdown?

[Dogtrousers]

Public transport will take a bashing - will they switch to cycling or cars and Uber ?

Sadly I think it will be cars.

I saw some figures from Hunan (very different society to us, but nonetheless interesting). Post lockdown public transport tanked as you would expect, private cars took up the slack, nothing much else changed.

A lot of people don't live within reasonable bike commuting distance of their place of work so if they want to avoid public transport they will have no choice but to go by motor vehicle. Other people who do live within bike commuting distance may find the roads an even more hostile place than before.

People may switch to a bit of car sharing in order to make them feel virtuous.

 

[PaulSB]

I think it's crazy that a tax-cut for buying bikes is available ... but only to quite a narrow niche of UK citizens.
(I'm not bitter, as 2nd-hand has always been a better bet for me. Unless the scheme will cover a bespoke frame?? )

I've never thought it crazy but it always makes me smile. I can't help but wonder how many bikes purchased under schemes such as C2W are actually used for commuting? I don't know if figures are available but I doubt if purchases are checked to ensure the bike is being used to commute.

Incentives which encourage people to exercise though cycling, increase bike sales and generate long-term income for bike shops are a good thing but in fairness should be available to all. Dressing it up as a C2W scheme available only to those whose employers put the scheme in place is unfair.

Do I lose sleep over this? No. Does it strike me as unfair? Yes.

 

[SkipdiverJohn]

ncentives which encourage people to exercise though cycling, increase bike sales and generate long-term income for bike shops are a good thing but in fairness should be available to all. Dressing it up as a C2W scheme available only to those whose employers put the scheme in place is unfair.

There's a much simper way to incentivise cycle use that would avoid all the admin and general buggering about involved with C2W. Simply change the VAT regime so bikes and parts/accessories are either zero-rated or only 5% rated, thereby making cycling cheaper to participate in. Now we've given the EU busybodies the boot, there should be no reason why we can't reduce the VAT levied on things that might encourage more physical activity and therefore be healthier.

 

[screenman]

There's a much simper way to incentivise cycle use that would avoid all the admin and general buggering about involved with C2W. Simply change the VAT regime so bikes and parts/accessories are either zero-rated or only 5% rated, thereby making cycling cheaper to participate in. Now we've given the EU busybodies the boot, there should be no reason why we can't reduce the VAT levied on things that might encourage more physical activity and therefore be healthier.

Do not hold your breath on that one, although I feel it is a good idea, we already pay a higher rate than the EU minimum and I feel we will be paying even more quite soon.

 

[MichaelW2]

If the demand is there, factories in Taiwan and China will supply bicycles. It is car factories that have a problem. Will they reopen given a massive oversupply, lower demand and marginal profitability. They were kept open by inertia, we may as well struggle on, one last push, this will be over by Christmas. Now that they have closed, inertia is working against them. People may even prefer fresh air.

 

[SkipdiverJohn]

I suspect what will delay car production getting back to normal is the fact there are going to be a lot more unemployed or generally skint people around who have had their hours/overtime/bonus cut, so a lot less demand for big ticket purchases.
Also, buying pretty much anything involving a face to face transaction is currently just so much hassle as to remove any possible pleasure from it. The only things I am still buying are food/drink/household stuff unless I spot something else whilst already shopping for basics. There's no way I'm going to endure endless queues and general inconvenience for anything I don't actually need to live on. Discretionary purchases can wait until all the virus hysteria is over with.

 

[NorthernDave]

If the demand is there, factories in Taiwan and China will supply bicycles. It is car factories that have a problem. Will they reopen given a massive oversupply, lower demand and marginal profitability. They were kept open by inertia, we may as well struggle on, one last push, this will be over by Christmas. Now that they have closed, inertia is working against them. People may even prefer fresh air.

I suspect what will delay car production getting back to normal is the fact there are going to be a lot more unemployed or generally skint people around who have had their hours/overtime/bonus cut, so a lot less demand for big ticket purchases.
Also, buying pretty much anything involving a face to face transaction is currently just so much hassle as to remove any possible pleasure from it. The only things I am still buying are food/drink/household stuff unless I spot something else whilst already shopping for basics. There's no way I'm going to endure endless queues and general inconvenience for anything I don't actually need to live on. Discretionary purchases can wait until all the virus hysteria is over with.

Don't forget that hardly anyone buys new cars any more - the majority of the market is now leased / contract hire and that's what's kept the market moving given the increasingly unaffordable price of a new car.
While that's worked up to now as it means you can have a shiny new car on the drive every 3 years for "just £200 down and £200 a month", a lot of people are suddenly finding out that being committed to neverending payments for something you'll never own might not be such a good idea.

 

[SkipdiverJohn]

I'm old-fashioned when it comes to buying stuff. I don't lease anything and I don't use any form of finance, not even the "interest free" variety (which really isn't anyway). Strictly cash on the nail outright purchase. Anything I can touch at home is actually mine and actually paid for. Nothing belongs to the bank or some sort of other financial entity.

 

[NorthernDave]

I'm old-fashioned when it comes to buying stuff. I don't lease anything and I don't use any form of finance, not even the "interest free" variety (which really isn't anyway). Strictly cash on the nail outright purchase. Anything I can touch at home is actually mine and actually paid for. Nothing belongs to the bank or some sort of other financial entity.

Sadly we're in a minority in that respect.
A lot of people are leveraged up to the hilt on the basis of keeping up with the Joneses and the good times never ending. Those chickens may well be coming home to roost now.

 

[screenman]

I wonder how many people on this forum will lose their jobs, a real sad thought. I call the things in shops that are wanted as opposed to needed are almost job creation schemes, without them a huge percentage of jobs would be gone. So to protect those jobs we all need to keep spending, as much as we can afford of course.

 

[SkipdiverJohn]

I call the things in shops that are wanted as opposed to needed are almost job creation schemes, without them a huge percentage of jobs would be gone. So to protect those jobs we all need to keep spending, as much as we can afford of course.

I agree with you up to a point, because economic activity is economic activity all said and done - BUT with globalisation and offshore manufacturing, a lot of the jobs supported by consumerism aren't actually OUR jobs in the UK!
If I decide, for whatever reason, not to buy a new smartphone/bike/TV/electronic gadget/car etc this year, the only UK losers in the majority of cases are those invoved in the retailing and distribution of those goods. The hit of the reduced manufacturing demand is mostly going to be taken in the Far East, and personally I am in favour of everybody in the West deliberately hitting China as hard as possible as payback for spreading their virus around by not purchasing their manufactured output.

 

[DCLane]

+1 to the no finance comments above. Our cars are owned, mine's 12 years old and SWMBO's is 11 but we've owned hers for 10 years. Both cash purchases. Our only (now small) debt is the mortgage.

We were discussing this afternoon that many lease cars will be returned / defaulted on due to the lessors inability to pay. Maybe they will buy a cheaper car or use a bike/public transport - probably the former. There will be more second-hand cars as a result. Possibly more re-posessed houses a bit further on.

The status symbol of a nice car is irrelevant when it's the car payment or putting food on the table.

 

[screenman]

I agree with you up to a point, because economic activity is economic activity all said and done - BUT with globalisation and offshore manufacturing, a lot of the jobs supported by consumerism aren't actually OUR jobs in the UK!
If I decide, for whatever reason, not to buy a new smartphone/bike/TV/electronic gadget/car etc this year, the only UK losers in the majority of cases are those invoved in the retailing and distribution of those goods. The hit of the reduced manufacturing demand is mostly going to be taken in the Far East, and personally I am in favour of everybody in the West deliberately hitting China as hard as possible as payback for spreading their virus around by not purchasing their manufactured output.

How horrible is that lot, did you choose where you were born?

 

[SkipdiverJohn]

How horrible is that lot, did you choose where you were born?

No, but I don't consider it my "duty" to support anywhere else but my own country. I was born in the UK, so that's the one place I have a loyalty to. The rest of the world is not my concern.

 

[Brooks]

I'm out of work and id love to see us bring back manufacturing back to these shores. The recent shortages of PPE highlights one of our major problems and that's manufacturing of simple goods always seem to go to these cheap slave labour countries. This race to the bottom on price is extremely harmful to jobs in this country. You only have to look at the likes of uber to see this. Tax avoiding companies like this destroying the long standing taxi trade. A cheap labour force propped up by working tax credits is a major scandal and it needs to stop. Other companies using the same offshore tax avoidance model are only a bad thing for our jobs and economy. Hopefully we can address this wrongdoing and get back to buying British made products.
I recently got myself a cracking Carradice Barley saddlebag and it's a quality bit of kit. We can make very good products we just need to support our own when we can.