Coronavirus outbreak

[RoadRider400]

Am in Hong Kong. I can share a few pointers on what to do.

First, I've seen R0 transmission rate models that of between 2.2 and 2.6. This is the number of people each infected person in turn infects. Note the models seem well researched but also the more drastic models are the ones that are more likely to be shared so I may not have seen other lighter models. Based on R0 of 2.5 one should expect between 60% and 90% of the world's population to be infected at some point.

In Hong Kong we've gone into full SARS mode. People here know the drill. The measures people are taking were the ones implemented to get SARS rate down below R0=1. So, all public events are being cancelled. Everyone is wearing a surgical mask out of home (although technically only infectious people wear need wear one, and technically you could get arrested for it as a protestor). Wash your hands every 30 minutes or so with alcohol sanitiser or soap and water.

My suggestions - be prepared for when this reaches Europe. Right now the one thing you should do is stock up on hand sanitiser.

Once it starts getting into Europe start stocking up on face masks. Then stock up on household essentials such as tinned food. Get into the habit of washing your hands frequently and wash thoroughly for at least 20 seconds each time. Get some surgical face masks if you can - this won't necessarily help you but will reduce you passing it on to others.

Be prepared also for lockdowns similar to Foot & Mouth. This will include cancellation of large public events such as RideLondon, marathons etc.

Thanks for the insight. I wonder at that number of cases in the UK will start the mass buying of cleaning products and long life food. Most of the people I know dont really have any concerns at all. Just how serious do you need to be about cleaning? For example whilst washing your hands do you then need to also clean the handle in soap or alcohol based sanitiser?

 

[Fab Foodie]

Thanks for the insight. I wonder at that number of cases in the UK will start the mass buying of cleaning products and long life food. Most of the people I know dont really have any concerns at all. Just how serious do you need to be about cleaning? For example whilst washing your hands do you then need to also clean the handle in soap or alcohol based sanitiser?

I’m not taking any chances, I’m stocking-up internally with as much alcohol as possible...just in case....

 

[RoadRider400]

I’m not taking any chances, I’m stocking-up internally with as much alcohol as possible...just in case....

cinzano advocate doesnt count.

 

[cookiemonster]

I’m not taking any chances, I’m stocking-up internally with as much alcohol as possible...just in case....

 

[Adam4868]

Wear a condom ?

 

[Beebo]

Wear a condom ?
View attachment 502516

I think someone’s playing with you.
Do you have a direct link from the WHO website.
I have.

 

[Adam4868]

I think someone’s playing with you.
Do you have a direct link from the WHO website.
I have.
View attachment 502517

I sort of knew that 😁

 

[greenmark]

OK, less than 24 hours after my last post and panic buying at the supermarkets has started.

And so far we've had only 10 confirmed infections in Hong Kong.

It's quite worrying how quickly this is degenerating.

 

[Fab Foodie]

OK, less than 24 hours after my last post and panic buying at the supermarkets has started.

And so far we've had only 10 confirmed infections in Hong Kong.

It's quite worrying how quickly this is degenerating.

....the Preppers will already have run to the hills...


However, if you think that’s bad:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...as-coronavirus-spreads?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Trivial though it may seem, this will have a big impact on employees, supply chain etc.
Furthermore, as people try to return to work in China, what due diligence should be put in place by employers? Should employees be screened and monitored? There are all kinds of ramifications....

 

[RoadRider400]

OK, less than 24 hours after my last post and panic buying at the supermarkets has started.

And so far we've had only 10 confirmed infections in Hong Kong.

It's quite worrying how quickly this is degenerating.

Hi
Do you have any more updates about your local situation?

 

[Fab Foodie]

I’m not taking any chances, I’m stocking-up internally with as much alcohol as possible...just in case....

 

[Ming the Merciless]

OK, less than 24 hours after my last post and panic buying at the supermarkets has started.

And so far we've had only 10 confirmed infections in Hong Kong.

It's quite worrying how quickly this is degenerating.

Yeah but based on the infection rates you quoted.

10 infect 22 infect 44 infect 88 infect 172 infect 344 infect 688 infect 1378 infect 2756 etc...

 

[greenmark]

....the Preppers will already have run to the hills...


However, if you think that’s bad:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/29/mcdonalds-shuts-300-restaurants-in-china-as-coronavirus-spreads?

Hi
Do you have any more updates about your local situation?

Well, not much different to yesterday. Supermarket shelves are being cleaned of fresh vegetables and meat products, but not long-life tinned food or dry foods (which I'm steadily stocking up on). The online supermarkets are practically unusable due to ridiculous demand.

My biggest concern isn't necessarily the virus itself but how it affects the economy overall. On a good case scenario we should have this front page news for at least three months. I would expect a lot of businesses to go tits-up in that time. The situation in China will likely be a fair bit worse. Anyone who was previously worried about the fragility of the world financial economy should be worried even more.

 

[Pale Rider]

Thanks for the insight. I wonder at that number of cases in the UK will start the mass buying of cleaning products and long life food. Most of the people I know dont really have any concerns at all. Just how serious do you need to be about cleaning? For example whilst washing your hands do you then need to also clean the handle in soap or alcohol based sanitiser?

Someone on the radio said washing doesn't have much impact on the transmission of a virus.

Transmission is by contact with an infected person, hence the focus on quarantining.

In other words, I could scrub up as much as I liked, but I could still cop the virus if I was breathed on or sneezed on by a infected person.

 

[johnnyb47]

Just on the news its arrived here in Blighty. 2 people have been tested positive for it.
Scary news 😳