What do we think will happen to the bike market post lockdown?

[vickster]

I reckon rush hour (trains/tubes especially) will be much quieter on public transport in London - as more people wfh, cycle or walk and purposefully avoid crowded public transport (at least in the short-medium term).
Outside London where people commute more by car who knows (depends if wfh becomes more the norm)
If wfh continues, hopefully the "school run" will turn into the school walk or cycle as parents don;t need to drop off on their way to work

 

[SkipdiverJohn]

The only thing keeping commuter numbers down is that building-based workplaces are wary about reopening as normal and cramming their space full of staff in close proximity, in case a load catch the virus then blame the employer for it. Therefore the numbers of people needing to travel daily to a fixed place of work has been drastically reduced. Once workplaces start to resume normal operations, the overcrowded commuting conditions and busy roads will quickly return. Anyone who thinks the virus is going to bring about some wholesale change to working patterns is deluding themselves. It might make a bit of difference at the margins, but unless the government was to mandate that every employee has a legal right to only attend work four days a week (doing the same total hours) then we are not going to see any significant reduction in peak hour commuting journeys by whatever mode of transport.

 

[dodgy]

I wouldn't be surprised if some countries say you must allow your employees to work from home and supply a bloody good reason if not. Kind of turning the pre-virus state of affairs on its head in terms of working from home.
After all, companies spend lots of money (occupational health, clean offices, traffic calming large sites) all designed to tune out danger and risk. If the single biggest risk an employee faces is the drive/journey to work and then being in close proximity to others, I can see it becoming a big HSE issue for the coming years.

 

[DSK]

Well our company for several year considered WFH (not on a wide scale) but, since we were forced to, we surprised ourselves at how quickly we got office workers and call centres all working from home and the company has remained strong.

Our company is now looking already at reducing floor space by not making WFH an exception but, rather more of an welcome option.

I think other companies similar to ours may also do the same which may, reduce traffic outright but not enough to make an significant impact.

 

[NorthernDave]

Well our company for several year considered WFH (not on a wide scale) but, since we were forced to, we surprised ourselves at how quickly we got office workers and call centres all working from home and the company has remained strong.

Our company is now looking already at reducing floor space by not making WFH an exception but, rather more of an welcome option.

I think other companies similar to ours may also do the same which may, reduce traffic outright but not enough to make an significant impact.

Similar here, but it only really works if you have somewhere appropriate to wfh - generally that means a spare room / home office. Perched on the sofa or requisitioning the kitchen table aren't suitable long term and are unlikely to pass a workstation assessment once HR departments catch up with the situation.
Many people don't have the luxury of that space unfortunately.

 

[Dogtrousers]

Putting people in offices has hefty fixed costs. This will just accelerate the already existing trend towards home working for office/desk based jobs.

Mind you, putting people on to working from home permanently does require a bit more thought (and money) than simply spinning up a VPN gateway. My wife has worked from home for years, since her company closed the satellite office where she worked - and presumably saved a ton of money by doing so. She pops in to the main office once a month or so. She has a separate company phone/broadband line, great big monitor, company provided chair, printer etc.

 

[DSK]

Whilst we are successfully WFH we are already looking at an 'improved' proper home working solution from an Technology perspective. Our company was also kind enough to allow us to take kit from the office home and also advise that they would reimburse for desk/chair/monitor etc provided we don't take the biscuit ordering the most expensive shizzle lol.

 

[Notafettler]

I think a big pull for many is both the extra time on their hands and the quiet roads. Once the traffic starts again a lot of families will put the bikes away. I think bike shop prices will stay static but there will be used bargains come the winter.

No, it takes at least two years before they start admitting to themselves that they aren't going to use the bike again. They will be gathering dust in the back of the garage for years to come!!

 

[Cletus Van Damme]

I think they will be a lot of good quality well priced used bikes, and a load of crap ones also. People might keep hold of them a while as mentioned above, but I'm sure some people will sell, more so if it's a decent one and worth a decent amount of cash, before it gets older and depreciates. I've been trying to get a mountain bike for my daughter and it's been very hard to find stock anywhere, hence while they'll be a lot of bikes after this, when a lot of people go back to being lazy. Luckily I found a Liv mountain bike in a local shop, by good fortune.

I'm pleased that bike shops haven't been hiking up prices to cash in etc. People seem to be trying to do that on a well known auction site with used ones, I just gave in looking and bought new. I'm going to put my daughter's Specialized Hotrock 24 up for sale, looking at other ones to get an idea, a lot of people seem to be taking the p1ss for worse examples than this one. I'll just sell it a fair price, can't stand that kind of thing.

I've got a Concept 2 rowing machine that I use at home. Just out of curiosity I looked on the same auction site at these, I have no intention selling it, just bored. I could get more than I paid for the machine new 3 years ago. I googled it again out of curiosity and you don't appear to be able to buy the machine anywhere. It was just a quick search though, but explains aution prices.

It would be good to think that people will stick to this fitness regime, or possibly gym memberships may fall, as people have been forced to find other methods. I guess somebody that buys an expensive rowing machine is fairly serious. I just bought it as I can't stand going to gym's.

 

[SkipdiverJohn]

No, it takes at least two years before they start admitting to themselves that they aren't going to use the bike again. They will be gathering dust in the back of the garage for years to come!!

That could depend a lot on individual household finances. It's certainly true, based on some of my own secondhand purchases, that bikes can be stored for decades unused before finally being sold on, but that assumes no urgent financial pressure to realise any cash by selling off non-essential items. That may not be the case this time round. The aftermath of this virus outbreak could well be worse than both the early 90's recession of the Major government and the 2008 financial crisis combined, and personal debt levels are now very high by historic standards. A lot of people spend right up to (and beyond) their means, which gives them no safety buffer if they suddenly find their income drastically reduced.That's when all the financed cars start to get repossessed and the household gadgets & toys flogged off to raise cash.

 

[Archie_tect]

I have no doubt that the golden couple 30-somethings who are riding around on shiny things in new day-glow lycra are the same people who also drive their Porsche Cayennes, their Jaguar SUVs, BMW 6/5s, Audi A7s and Mercedes AMGs everywhere on the deserted roads at stupid speeds despite lockdown will ditch their bikes on FB Marketplace and the world will settle slowly back to being the consumer society it was.

I'm still in mourning for Steeles of Gosforth....

 

[screenman]

I have not seen any new bikes or shiny live a clad new cyclist when out, and the idiots driving fast are not in upmarket cars, must be an area thing.

 

[Globalti]

Unfortunately nothing will change and by the Autumn everybody will be back in their cars sitting in traffic jams.

There are several simple reasons for the surge in cycling: the fantastic weather, the quieter roads and the low cost of a bike while people are not spending money on fuel, eating out or trips.

I'd be willing to bet that 95% of bike trips are less than three miles because people are just pootling around their district. Once we return to work, don't expect those people to ride 10, 20, 30 miles or more to the office.

Most of the bikes will end up rusting in sheds while their owner polishes the new w***panzer on the drive. Never underestimate people's quest for status; the car on the drive is the first symbol of status by which people judge their success in life.

 

[Globalti]

I have no doubt that the golden couple 30-somethings who are riding around on shiny things in new day-glow lycra are the same people who also drive their Porsche Cayennes, their Jaguar SUVs, BMW 6/5s, Audi A7s and Mercedes AMGs everywhere on the deserted roads at stupid speeds despite lockdown will ditch their bikes on FB Marketplace and the world will slowly settle slowly back to being the consumer society it was.

I'm still in mourning for Steeles of Gosforth....

Oh yes Steeles. I used to go in there and annoy Mike Steele by asking silly questions while almost never spending any actual money.

 

[Archie_tect]

I have not seen any new bikes or shiny live a clad new cyclist when out, and the idiots driving fast are not in upmarket cars, must be an area thing.

There's the usual lads in black/graphite alloy Corsas and old Honda Civic-Rs with no baffles in their exhaust too- they're the ones who meet up in the evenings to drink and fool around.